Comments by "Name" (@Name-kd5jj) on "Munro Live" channel.

  1. As far as the crossover point goes here is my prediction: 2030: more than 50% of cars built are full EV or Hybrid. Full EV's will make up about 5-10% and the other 40%+ being hybrid. The lithium supply will limit full EV production to about 10-15 million units per year. 2035: Every mainstream manufacturer will offer a full EV with a base price around $25,000 in todays money. Those that are not full EV will be hybrid, using electric motor and a Ethanol/Biodiesel combustion engine. Lithium production and battery advancements will allow for production of about 15-25 million full EV's per year. 2040-2045: Every mainstream manufacturer will have a full EV lineup offered. By this point EV's will probably outsell ICE and hybrid vehicles. 2050: Manufacturing of ICE vehicles will be banned. They will still be sold on the second hand market. By this point car production will drop from about 90 million in 2019 to 60-70 million per year. I believe that by this point the largest source of lithium will become recycled batteries. About 30-35 million cars will be produced using raw lithium mined out of the ground with the remainder coming from recycled batteries. Side note: Even though Tesla promises to make batteries that can last 1 million miles they will not last nearly that long due to the market. Battery technology will evolve rapidly and people will want the latest and greatest. So batteries will last no more than 10-15 years due to market demand. Also even though ICE production will be banned in 2050 many people will still drive ICE vehicles due to supply or not being abled to buy a new EV. Secondhand EV's over 10 years old will be scarce due to the reasons i listed above and many people drive cars that are 15-20 years old due to cost. 2070: Ownership of ICE vehicles will be banned with certain exceptions such as classics. Governments will have to work out some kind of program to buy the ICE vehicles and help subsidize EV adoption for those who cannot afford even a used EV. So in other words ICE will be around for another 50 or so years, but manufacturing will be banned by 2050. I'm also talking mostly about the developed nations so what will happen in Africa for example is anyone's guess. If you're wondering why i'm predicting a serious decline in global vehicle production by 2050 its due to demand and improvements in public transportation. Some people are predicting the number of cars to double to over 2 billion by that point but i predict they are wrong.
    1
  2. I think the Cybertruck is cool, but i don't think its going to be a good seller. Elon is brilliant but he's also insane. Look at the Model X, they delayed that thing by months just to figure out the ridiculous "falcon doors". I would have liked to see something more like the Rivian truck, in other words more like a traditional truck. EV's will only be successful if they are familiar.
    1