Comments by "GTW" (@gtw4546) on "Why Aging Population is China's Big Problem?" video.

  1. Consider that the 2-births-per-woman replacement rate assumes that the genders are balanced which isn't the case in China. Those who were born before the one-child policy began and those after are likely balanced (diluting the true extent of the problem), but those of childbearing age are VERY unbalanced, perhaps as high as 3:1. So for China to be at replacement rate, each woman of childbearing age would need to give birth to FOUR children to replace herself, her partner, and each male who is unable to find a wife!
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  2. Consider that the 2-births-per-woman replacement rate assumes that the genders are balanced which isn't the case in China. Those who were born before the one-child policy began and those after are likely balanced (diluting the true extent of the problem), but those of childbearing age are VERY unbalanced, perhaps as high as 3:1. So for China to be at replacement rate, each woman of childbearing age would need to give birth to FOUR children to replace herself, her partner, and each male who is unable to find a wife! Even at 1.6, they'd be in rapid decline.
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