Comments by "Sar Jim" (@sarjim4381) on "The Norwegian Rocket Incident of 1995" video.

I don't buy the idea that this was the closest we ever came to nuclear armageddon. I can think of at least five incidents when both Russia and the US were preparing to launch and came within minutes of doing so. I also don't what evidence we have except for some murky CIA reports that Yeltsin was prepared to authorize a launch, and Yeltsin denies it. Global tensions were low in 1995 compared to the previous decades, and neither the Russians nor the US were seriously thinking a nuclear strike by either side was possible. A single rocket, even if were to contain an EMP weapon, would not be enough to blind all of the Russian's defense radars. By 1995, satellite detection systems were becoming more important that radars ass exemplified by the closing of the DEW Line in 1993. The Russians were able to see the launch from Norway by satellite, and they know it wasn't coming from a ballistic missile sub within the first minute. They also knew we or the Norwegians didn't maintain even short range missiles in Norway let alone anything long range. There are reports that the main Russian computers used to analyze missile tracks were offline for software updates. That meant it took longer to analyze the launch longer than usual. I've the accounts of this before, and it appears the main problem was the operators of Russia's radar system were never notified of the Black Brant launch. That was the core of the crisis, and these kinds of lajunches now can't be done without return messages confirming that everyone down the line knows about.
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Do you have a link to something showing Yeltsin had the briefcase open with a key inserted? Yeltsin denies that ever happened. An aide bought the briefcase to his office, but I haven't seen any reliable evidence it went further than that. Yeltsin has even said he was willing to see one rocket impact Russia rather than launch an all out retaliation, assuming a single rocket was a mistake, or a scientific rocket like this one, rather than risk armageddon. The Russians were well aware of Black Brent rockets and their radar and satellite signatures. I'm not saying your assessment is wrong. It's hard to get at the truth when both the Russians and some in the US are doing their best to play it down or play it up. Russian General Vladimir Dvorkin is part of the former group while guys like Bruce Blair are part of the latter. After reading and listening to multiple accounts, mostly from people with axes to grind, my own assessment was it was one of the many small crises we've had throughout the nuclear age. I come from the duck and cover age, and how we made it this far seems like a miracle to me.
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I had read that article previously, and it contains the same ambiguous wording about what "activated" meant. Yeltsin was in the runup to the 1996 election, and he made the statement during a press conference to show he was the guy in charge. Yeltsin was prone to being a little hyperbolic at times. I agree that the biggest risk during that period was the deterioration of the old Soviet systems as result of the general decline of the economy. People were no longer joining the army, because civilian pay was so much higher, and there weren't sufficient replacements to fill in as other ranks retired. Soldiers working the radar systems sometimes had to stand 24 to 36 hour shifts and were dead on their feet. It was a system ready for trouble in 1995. Putin, like him or not, has improved the situation with the army, and the dire times of the economic collapse have turned around. I don't know if you've heard about a guy named Stanislav Petrov. He was a lieutenant colonel in the Soviet Army in 1983 and was the duty officer for the Oko early warning system on September 26, 1983. His actions truly saved the world from all-out nuclear war, and he's largely forgotten today.
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