Comments by "Sar Jim" (@sarjim4381) on "Don't Walk, Run! Productions"
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I don't think Trump would have had a snowball's chance in hell if he had to rely on the popular vote. Here are the ten most populous states -
California (Population: 39,747,267)
Texas (Population: 29,087,070)
Florida (Population: 21,646,155)
New York (Population: 19,491,339)
Pennsylvania (Population: 12,813,969)
Illinois (Population: 12,700,381)
Ohio (Population: 11,718,568)
Georgia (Population: 10,627,767)
North Carolina (Population: 10,497,741)
Michigan (Population: 10,020,472)
Of these, two are solid blue states, three are usually solid red, and the other five are swing states. Blue California, New York and Illinois total 71,891,000. Solid red states Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina total 49,000,000. In other words, Republicans already start at a 23 million vote deficit just compared to the three largest blue states. Florida has barely gone red in most elections when it went red, but let's add that in, so Republicans might now have 70,000,000, still 1.8 million votes short. Now we have the traditional blue wall states of Ohio and Michigan. Let's give those to the Dems. That brings them up to 93,611,000, 23 million more than the Repubs. Even if they win Pennsylvania, the only gets the Repubs to 82,813,000 , still 12 million short. This means they have to get some combination of Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to win, and they need to do it every time. This doesn't even count the large pluralities in the big blue states and large black votes in the South. Only losing by 2.8 million votes would probably be a Republican best in any election without the Electoral College.
If it's going to be one person, one vote, the Republicans will probably never win another election. I'm certain the Dems have already run these numbers. That's why they want the Electoral College eliminated. They will win every presidential, election and be able to do just about anything they want. In 1859, it was slave vs free state. In 2020, or whenever the Electoral College is eliminated, it will be big blue states vs everyone else. Good luck to our country.
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There is an inverse relationship between teacher pay and student outcomes. For example, public high school teachers in Detroit have an average base salary of $58,149 with an average salary of $66,069 after five years. Among the 35% of Detroit students who actually graduate high school, about 40% of them are so functionally illiterate they can't successfully fill out a job application. OTOH, Detroit private high school teachers have an average base pay of $36,620. About 85% of their students graduate high school, 40% go on to college, and 100% are functionally literate, but, yeah, teacher salaries are obviously the problem.
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@SortOfEggish Okay, IM was being a littley hyperbolic with the 15-17 year olds, but the overwhelming number that I've seen in the "Yang Gang" are under 30. Rather like the Bernie Bros, some of whom he seems to have attracted, the number of people that shows up at rally shouldn't be misted en as evidence of good policies.
I've read his math. The trillions he wants to give away only works if all these supposed benefits also accrue, something completely unprovable. For example, effects on cognitive ability (which is really decision making, not cognitive ability) in the linked study at his site draws almost all its data from Indian cane farmers. It's pretty doubtful we can extrapolate those conclusion the the US.
His plan is pay for this largess is to give with one hand and take away with the other. The 10% VAT won't be 10% to the consumer, only 10% to the producer. As has been shown in Europe, a 10% VAT will really be more like 18% to 20% after all the costs and profits get added in before the tax is paid as higher prices passed on to consumers. Assuming we're not going to full blown socialism and not allowing businesses to recover costs, this is absolutely unavoidable. In addition, the study from the Roosevelt Institute (which is really more of a monograph than a study), a leftist think tank, actually concludes "When paying for the policy by increasing taxes on households, the Levy model forecasts no effect on the
economy". In fact, the only way there's a permanent change is if it's completely paid by increased taxes, and even those effects level off after eight years. The Levy model used in these forecasts is not universally accepted among economists as accurate or even rational. It seems ver doubtful to me that there will be wide acceptance of UBI paid to everyone from a billionaire down to the poorest person. Yang gives no plan on how this will be integrated in Social Security retirement payments, and there would need ot be massive changes to not have the thousand dollars just be a deduction with non on on SS being better off.I get the feeling Yang thinks this will be a snap to implement. It won't be.
I had already read every word on the website so let's get over the snarky "You just don't understand" part now. Contrary to Yang's claim this will not lead ot socialism, his "human centered capitalism" is simply socialism repackaged in a nicer sounding name, much like UBI morphed in the ridiculous "Freedom Dividend". The average American understands a government giveaway, and knows there's no such thing as free money.
Finally, even if all of Yang's policies were great, there's no way he'll get the nomination. He has all the personality of a corporate lawyer and none of the flair. The only thing he's doing is pushing other Democrats further left, something I suspect has been his goal all along.
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David Smith Oh, you're sure, are you? Got some links? I have plenty that show the biggest contributors to depression among young people is being disconnected from the real world. The internet creates a fake world that lives inside your head. Wage slavery, lol. Like you mean you're the first generation that had to start at the bottom and work your way up. The rest of us went right into some middle management job? My first job when I was 16 was in a machine shop where I had to have a metal lunch box since the rats ate your lunch if you used a paper bag.
I worked hard all my life to get where I am today. It took me seven years to get my degree because I went mostly at night and worked to support the family and pay for college. I got a degree in engineering, and that helped me get a good job when I graduated. Not a great job, but my foot was in the door. I had no debt because I went to a community college my first two years and a state college for the last two. I didn't get loans so I could go to some place that charged $30,000 a year for tuition. Did you complete college? If so, what degree did you get? Most of the people I hear crying about not being able to get a good job have degrees in things like English literature or 18th Century French poetry. Unless you can qualify to teach those subjects, you'll spend a lot of time asking people if they want to supersize their meal.
Trump's tax cuts helped a lot, assuming you're actually earning some money. Extreme capitalism? Ever heard of the robber barons? Have you read any history about prairie farmers that worked 18 hours a day and barely had enough for food because the railroads charged whatever they pleased to transport their wheat or cattle? No electricity, radio, telephone, or TV, and you only went to school through sixth grade because you were needed on the farm. You were up at 4:30 because that's when the cows and chicken were up. Need to take a dump at three in morning in a cold winter's day? No problem. Get dressed, get the lantern, trudge 50 yards through the snow to the unheated two holer, do your business with your butt frozen to the seat, and hope the other members of the family left enough pages in the Sears catalog to finish the job.
The harvest moon got its name because it was the last full moon before the frost, so farmers could work all night to get the crops in before the were ruined. Your grandfather and great grandfather worked in mills and factories where there were no safety laws, no OSHA, just the boss telling you what to do. You could tell how long a guy had operated a punch press by how many fingers he had left. If you got killed, your widow got $25 and a sympathy card. Yeah, extreme capitalism. You don't have the first clue about what extreme capitalism is like.
Stop blaming everything else but yourself because you think your life is fucked up. Your life is up to you, not Trump, or anyone else. Yesterday's gone and tomorrow doesn't exist yet. You have today, every day. When you wake up in the morning, you can decided to do one thing to make your life better or get on the net and start crying to the rest of your digital "friends". It's up to you.
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