Comments by "Jim Luebke" (@jimluebke3869) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. "The Millennials will start having kids" Er, isn't the birthrate among Millennials, absolutely abysmal? All of this only works if Millennial women actually have kids, and that only happens if they're encouraged to. In other words, if we don't change the culture, we're doomed.
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  2. So Peter, what has Trump been convicted of again? Didn't he get acquitted by the Senate when he was impeached over this?
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  3. If a third party candidate couldn't break through in 2016, it just isn't going to happen. Trump is a lot more popular with Americans than the legacy media and leftwing independent media can conceive of, because they can't conceive of anyone actually loving America.
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  4. "The US and France fall into the 'demographically stable' category" Um, are the African immigrants the ones supporting France's demographics? Are they educated and integrated enough to supply high-skilled labor? Does France even collect data broken down by ethnicity? I've heard they don't.
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  5. "India can shut down the energy link between the Persian Gulf and China" What kind of changes have we seen in the land-route links from Russia to China in the last year or two?
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  6. "If Russia wins in Ukraine, there will be a nuclear exchange" So we should probably have a settlement instead of allowing them to swallow Ukraine. Peter, you keep saying this is the last generation of Russians. Isn't time on our side? Stall them by making peace, trade land for time so that we can build up defenses in these areas -- including, defenses against nukes of various flavors -- to make their next steps so unbelievably painful that they will not take them. Then wait out the clock on The Last Russians.
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  7. Peter: "This was the last chance the Russians had of starting a war like this, their demographics are done" Also Peter: "Even if they blow past the end of their demographics, that just means they're going to use nukes" So Peter, by this logic, if the Russians had waited another year to go to Ukraine, they'd still have done it, they'd just have rolled up to Ukraine with nukes. Peter, you've tipped over into paranoia at this point.
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  8. "Azerbaijan beat them handily in about a six-week war, you should expect to see something like that now." I'm here 2 months later, and the war is still going on. Your latest video says, "We will know who wins this war by next May." At what point do we need to start calibrating our judgement of your analysis, by accounting for a massive optimism bias?
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  9. Germans 2023, according to Peter: "We are the largest economic force in Europe" Peter Zeihan, 2022: "Without Russian petrochemicals, Germany is de-industrializing, and shipping its factories to energy-secure places like Louisiana." How do we reconcile these statements?
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  10. "And so now we have the business community totally alienated from the social conservative voters" Um, that's because of specific actions and fads among the business community, which you're just glossing over here. The self-inflicted damage the "business community" has done (mostly, adopting left-wing social issues) to separate themselves from the bulk of the Conservative voter base, my not be something Peter (with his unusual personal life) can actually discuss fruitfully.
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  11. I dunno. Purely corporate overlords wouldn't be siding with such a stupid, anti-performance concept. I suspect that when he's around anyone with a non-Establishment point of view, he's doing a lot of talking and very little listening. The only people he listens to have drunk the Kool-Aid themselves.
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  12.  @jeanlamb5026  It's been zero for centuries now. Or at least it was under the British Empire, but since that fell it's been making a comeback in Africa and the Middle East.
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  13.  @jeanlamb5026  Fascinating. An accidental non-sequitur from me gets a non-sequitur from you as well. Are you a bot?
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  14. Didn't you listen to the first couple of minutes? Income inequality is a critical feature, not a bug. I'm looking forward to Peter's future video, "Klaus, are we the baddies?"
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  15. Amen, brother. It may well be again, as the Hispanic and Latino immigrants get their feet under them economically and start voting Conservative.
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  16.  @texasbryan  Ah, but that doesn't fit with The Narrative(TM), now does it.
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  17. "People considered them very respectable ... you could tell what a Baggins would say on any question without the bother of asking him."
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  18.  @mlaw1123  Peter seems to be honest enough with his inside scoop the rest of the time, that it might be more worthwhile to listen to his take on specific issues with Trump. Instead Peter seems to confine himself to respectable (predictable) name-calling most of the time, unfortunately.
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  19.  @robertduluth8994  The sheer amount of pants-sh**ting I see in the archaic media over Trump and the prospect of his running and winning in 2024.
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  20.  @robertduluth8994  That's the thing, you don't have to advocate for a policy to be influential. A lot of the time that even hurts your influence, as those opposed to your policies work directly against you. Peter's introduction of demographic and geographic data to the discussion frames the debate, and shapes what policies people are going to think of and accept. Resistance to some policies will grow, resistance to other policies will fade, as people follow their common sense. It's nice to have that common sense informed by data, for a change.
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  21.  @yukoncornelium  I suspect most Conservatives will shrug off childish name-calling like that.
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  22. "As globalism collapses, Europe might not be the best bet... instead Thailand, or Myanmar, or Malaysia" Peter, if these pirates you so fear are going to be rising to disrupt global shipping, where are they going to be rising -- in the North Atlantic, or in Polynesia / Malaysia? As far as birthrates go, the question is not "where are there good birthrates," the qustion is "where are current trends going to be reversed", because they're all headed down. If you don't think they can be reversed, I suggest that you open your mind about the fact that there are historic (Western) models of public morality we can return to. If the West is to survive, our outlook will have to change: when your elderly relatives say, "Peter, you should find a nice girl and settle down and have a few kids," and you say, "No thank you," we must have a culture that says you are wrong and your relatives are right. The culture you seek to maintain, cannot and will not survive a generation.
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  23. "Blue cities provide traditional advantages" Like what? Name ten, if you can. Then count how many of those are irrelevant now because of networking and AI.
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  24.  @LividImp  Agriculture is only 1% of California's economy... Wow -- California's economy could conceivably drop by nearly 99%?
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  25. He's just so much better when he's concentrating on the data. I wonder how much of this "Russian disinformation" is just "bad news about how things are going for Ukraine"?
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  26. Democrats could cause a famine in California's Central Valley, which also has some of the best soil in the world.
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  27.  @peterflohr7827  Not everyone, but it should be possible for just about anyone who's ever had an industrial base. Britain should be cheering this on madly.
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  28.  @Alexadria205  Lol, "10x." 10%, tops. We're incredibly productive, and will see even more productivity gains here. Rome stagnated because they over-relied on sl**e labor. We're stagnating because we over-rely on foreign, near-sl**e neighbor. 10% more expensive, with wages rising 100%+, because that's how productivity works.
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  29. "That's why we're seeing things move so quickly now" As opposed to any time in the last few years? Please. You're better than this, Peter. No Peter, it's moving quickly now because it's a trumped-up charge in response to revelations about the Biden family's corruption.
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  30. "Deep Space satellite communication systems" What, so the Russians can't bring their reinforcements in from Mars? Please use terminology correctly here, you sound silly.
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  31. So, asymmetric warfare can occur between any two points on the tech tree. Interesting.
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  32. A dock is the opposite of a wall. The actual population of the United States wants a wall. Instead, we get a dock.
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  33.  @williamflack6691  The Germans (as usual) have a word for it: "Fachidiot".
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  34. Not so. Fink is in retreat already. If Conservatives all pulled their money out of Blackrock, he'd be completely screwed.
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  35.  @gingerlicious3500  How so? If Democrats really were stuffing ballot boxes (and there is real evidence of that), aren't the ones disenfranchising people, the Democrats?
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  36. Two months ago weren't you saying the Ukrainians would win two weeks ago? Which of your assumptions turned out to be incorrect?
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  37. Serious data analysis FTW =)
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  38. Thank you, Holland, for providing the most hilarious words in the English language. =)
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  39. Demographics and other data-heavy analysis won't change, if Trump wins. He'll still be worth watching.
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  40. "The Turks have recently come in from the cold, and are not supporting the Russians" Is this because the Saudis and Iranians are in the Mega Asian camp?
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  41.  @hg2.  You missed the fact that climate models (any computer models of that type, really) are incapable of reliable prediction on the order of years or decades, much less decades to centuries. The models will say whatever the people twiddling their non-reality-based parameters want them to say.
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  42. Yup. He doesn't recognize that the people who were too young to vote in 2020 but are getting old enough to vote now, have noticed just how c*ap everything has gotten under Biden, and are likely to vote him out of office.
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  43. We've had decades of experience bringing Japanese cars into the US, saying that they are "Made in the USA" for various legal purposes. Why can't we do the same with Japanese boats and ships? Our own shipyard industries have been moribund and low-quality for decades now. The Japanese are some of the finest shipbuilders in the world. At least on the surface, the synergies are obvious. As an added bonus, you have said that the Japanese are EXTREMELY keen on keeping good relations with America, to the point of making any negotiations with them "easy mode" for our diplomats. Isn't this an incredible opportunity for us all?
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  44.  @XjBEeaNKVtmnaTd2k1b4  Looking for something with more basis than mere opinion? Sometimes Peter hits, and sometimes he misses, on that score.
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  45.  @XjBEeaNKVtmnaTd2k1b4  In this case, he doesn't really provide statistical analysis -- just his own opinion, as an "independent", colored by a bias towards the Establishment.
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  46.  @XjBEeaNKVtmnaTd2k1b4  The polls say Trump is ahead, and is going to win. Unless Biden pulls some shenanigans again (which I won't rule out) and doesn't get caught again (which is a bit more of an ask) he doesn't stand a chance. Anyone who uses the word "narrative" unironically is, at heart, a liar.
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  47.  @sixfiftyfive2386  As with everything, check the checkables. The stuff he's checkable on, he does pretty well.
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  48.  @marekwojcik7153  I think you're confusing deliberate "normalization" -- a push to adjust people's expectations -- with incidental normalization, which is an adjustment of people's expectations simply by pointing out that there is a justification to change those expectations. I'll give Peter the benefit of the doubt, and say that in his case it's just incidental.
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  49. Er, what Peter is saying is completely counter to all the recent swing state polls. If the election were held today, Trump would trounce Biden. A lot can happen in the next year, but there is very little that is likely to change this trend.
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  50.  @fateislosthope  How many Republicans actually believe the nonsense media narrative about that? A lot of Democrats don't believe it either. The more they breathlessly ejaculate about January 6, the more other people roll their eyes or back away in disgust.
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