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Voryn Rosethorn
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Comments by "Voryn Rosethorn" (@vorynrosethorn903) on "What would happen if Russia collapsed?" video.
He's trying not to be alarmist like much of the media is. Ethnic Russian is a bit like han Chinese, formed of many assimilated groups and people's but with that being irrelevant because they don't recognise themselves as such.
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With the collapse of the USSR it was taken over by Russia, who would take it over with Russia's collapse, Kazakhstan? A collapse of power in Russia would be considerably more chaotic than that of the Soviet Union as there would be no organised structures to hand power over to, also Russia would be unlikely to remain collapsed with a new state structure and ideology likely asserting itself in short order, a bit like with all the Chinese collapses in central power, likewise the new Russia could well be a more formidable state than the current, or it could be a new Soviet union and further undermine any of the potential that the nation has left.
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Venezuela would move under China's umbrella. Belarus would shoot all its political prisoners and citizens on watchlists before the West could get to them and then wade into the Russian civil war headfirst, trying to bring the old guard on side and claiming continuity with the collapsed state structures. Syria would become even more of an Iranian puppet and have to worry even more about Turkish intentions. Any new democracies would be barely disguised authoritarian oligarchies, which come to think all said states already are.
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@iiitiberiusiii3441 It was the Russians who ended up with the things. Those negotiations succeeded because the newly independent nations were unified and the Russian’s were deeply familiar with them as they were a continuation of the semi-autonomous governments that had already been in place. On top of that despite the chaos russia still had a full idea of where they were placed and had the people in place to guard and later to move them. As things are there is no state with such inside knowledge or influence in Russia, nor would a successor state be able to hold as tight a grip over the loyalties of disparate garrisons as the central Russian state was. Nor would Russia split cleanly, it doesn’t have internal state structures designed in a way that would allow for a stable transfer of power to regional equivalents. The west might get bits of paper and their special forces might even be able to secure sites in time but in the chaos documents will be lost and things will be moved and there will be third party’s who’s special forces will be looking to secure nukes in an entirely different way and warlords who know that they are far better leverage in your hands than out of them. Even the warlords of the Donbass are more manageable than whatever would exist in the interregnum. Russia will reunify, the culture, religion and politics make the only issue that of what the borders will look like by the time they do. The new state with be different ideologically to the old, that will change their direction, and thus potential, though much of the nations potential was already given a dirt nap by the Soviets so them becoming a juggernaut again would be entirely beholden to the rest of the world screwing on an insane enough level to allow them, and the Chinese at least won’t be stupid enough to give them a grace period on that. I’m sure few thought that states could come out of a civil war or internal collapse before it happen all the hundreds of times it has thoughout history.
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And there wasn't a China a few millennia ago. In the 12th century talking about Russia was a bit like talking about India or Italy before unification though what are today Ukrainians would probably be seen as the 'primary' Russians at least until the Mongols showed up. It was a way of categorizing Slavic people's with similar languages and religious practices whom had once lived along with the Rus Scandinavians. If you want the history of the creation of the Russian national identity there are many good books on the subject, all you need to know is that something alway having always existed doesn't delegitimise it's existence now.
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