Comments by "LRRPFco52" (@LRRPFco52) on "DW News"
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The problems with Russia are its geography and demographics. Russia has suffered many major brain drains since 1914:
1. The Great War 1.7 million casualties
2. Bolshevik Revolution (persecuted scientists who didn’t accept Marxism, relocated millions of people, causing mass deaths, as well as executions)
3. Russian Civil War caused 7-12 million casualties
4. Holodomor in Ukraine was anywhere from 9-20 million. Mass graves with destroyed records as Soviet policy prevents us from knowing how many for sure.
5. Dekulakization involved liquidation, deportation, and forced labor camps for 1.5 million of Russia’s greatest farmers.
6. Then The Great Patriotic War happened, and Russia lost anywhere from 26.6 million people on-up, many still missing to this day, 6 million buried still unidentified
7. Stalin’s mass executions
8. Khrushchev era collapse of Russian peasants to the cities, low birth rate began
9. Late 1980s-1990s collapse of Soviet Union and flight of Russian intelligentsia, engineers, scientists, professors, technicians
10. Ukraine conflicted from 1914-present
Reasonable people have been systematically purged from Russia for over 100 years, whether by foreign wars or domestic policies and extremely bad leadership. This is the plight of Russia.
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@АлександрКуницын-и6к The US bailed out Russia, Ukraine, Belorussia, Georgia, and Kazakhstan in the 1990s with Nunn-Lugar. American companies moved in, German companies moved in, and those products ands services were well-received.
Nobody wanted to extinguish Russia, especially not in the West. There were attention-deficit hopefuls in Washington DC and Europe who kept talking about the peace dividend, but Eastern Europeans knew history would repeat itself, so they begged to join NATO.
The US, Berlin, and London would have preferred to see an economically-strong Russia that isn’t belligerent, to help increase trade and international relations.
Russians don’t think this way though, because they’re always thinking about who will attack them next.
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@oconnor6456 40k soldiers with air support and artillery can easily take a city of 5 million. A much smaller force took a much larger city in 2003. You might have heard of it. The US forces amounted to 30,000, whereas Baghdad was over 8 million people with a 45,000 defenders.
You talk about “anyone with the slightest touch? in military education" without knowing basic recent facts of modern examples. I just happened to be in OIF1 in 2003, so I know a little bit about warfare, having studied it from the 1970s-present with a library and deployment history that far exceeds anything Russia has done.
So given your metrics, it makes it even more obvious that Putin was absolutely planning on taking Kiev, and failed miserably. After getting his face kicked in, he shifted over to Donbas to try to save face and gloss over the fact that thousands of vehicles have been lost, with over 10,000 soldiers KIA.
Diversions are a basic strategy that even the most incompetent generals have used in warfare. The ability to adapt and maintain logistics to the fight while letting competent leaders work in their space is what most armies never master. Russia has neither the competent commanders, the logistics, or the strategic planning and adaptability because of 6 major brain drains throughout its history since the Bolsheviks destroyed Russia from within.
Anyway, on the Eastern front in Ukraine, I see it differently, where Russian forces will be defending and losing ground. Now that the Ukrainians taste blood and see how incompetent and weak Russian forces are, they aren’t going to hold back.
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It would have been a great aircraft had it been designed and built in the West, using engines that work reliably and have long life, significant use of composites in the airframe, and avionics that were actually useful, driven from a cockpit that had the pilot in-mind. Visibility from the canopy would have been better as well. Drop the airframe weight with composites, use consistent templates for the skin panels (unlike Russian method of hand-drilling randomly), use smaller diameter F404 motors (35” vs RD-33 $1”) and resulting smaller profiled engine nacelles for better aerodynamics, acceleration, speed, and combat radius. Or you can just look at the Baby Hornet with twice the weapons stations. MiG-29 can only carry 6 AAMs. F/A-18A-D can carry 12 AAMs. F/A-18 is vastly-superior in the multi-role mission set capabilities since it has been developed for SEAD, strike, Anti-Ship, DCA, OCA, CAS, and FAC.
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@dexterplameras3249 The 2020 AIM-120D3 when fired at optimum kinematic state from an F-15C+ exceeded the range of the 1990s AIM-54C fired from optimum kinematic state from the F-14A.
Had the AIM-54 series remained in inventory along with the F-14, it would have undergone the same types of upgrades in propellant and guidance resulting in incremental improvements to WEZ and NEZ parameters.
AIM-120C5 can't reach AIM-54C effective range, for example. AIM-120D3 fired from a Hornet or Super Hornet will never achieve what it can from the F-15C+, Typhoon, or Raptor.
This gets more complex as you get into the missile model and series, plus the separation aircraft altitude and speed.
We were working on AIM-120 integration on the Block 30 & 40 F-16C/D back in the late 1980s, so I'm coming from a place of intimacy with the subject.
A huge factor in BVR is IFF against Non-Cooperative Targets. You have to have PID, otherwise you could be blasting an airliner out of the sky like the Russians have done multiple times, and USN did in the Persian Gulf in 1988.
Precious few fighters/interceptors have the Radar detection, tracking, and PID range to employ the latest AIM-120D3 to its maximum WEZ potential.
R-33 & R-37 series have the propellant mass capacity for more burn time, which results in significant WEZ/NEZ parameters.
When used in conjunction with the huge Zaslon or Irbis-E PESA Radars on MiG-31BM and Su-35S, there is a long-look/long-reach problem for smaller fighters that isn't solved merely by giving them a longer WEZ AAM.
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@dexterplameras3249 There are IFF features introduced with solid state electronics Radars already in the 1970s that work strictly in the RF spectrum. They really showed up first on the F-15A with its APG-63, and it was significantly upgraded starting in 1978 with a Digital Signals Processor that was standard on the F-15C/D models, then back-filled into the A/Bs even as we pushed them into AFRES and ANG units.
F-16A benefitted greatly from the F-15's Radar developments, but it has a much smaller antenna and less volume for back-end amplifiers, waveform generators, filters, and analog-to-digital converters.
F-16C Block 25 got a new APG-68 Radar that has been upgraded until (V)9 through the late Block F-16s (40, 42, 50, 52), which are now being replaced by AESAs with the PoBIT program.
F/A-18 benefitted from a lot of the lessons and improvements on the F-15 and has also undergone a series of Radar and avionics upgrades throughout its service life. It had multiple upgrades to the APG-65, then got the APG-73 and now APG-79 AESA.
The F/A-18C had at least 2 NCTR parameter capabilities the F-14A/B didn't have, which allowed them to face-shoot MiGs in Desert Storm.
The US teen series have mostly been limited to RF spectrum detection, tracking, and PID without relying on IRST like we had on F-101B, F-102A, F-106A, F-8G, F-4B/C/D/J, and some F-14s with TCS.
What you'll notice is those Electro-Optical sensors were primarily used on interceptors who commonly encountered strategic bombers that had very powerful jammers to render their Radars useless. IRST is totally passive, so they could use them to maintain sensor tracks for firing solutions for IR-guided missiles.
For fighters vs fighters, the US and NATO shifted into aircraft with very user-friendly multi-mode Radars, working in conjunction with AWACS.
The F-15s in particular would operate in 4 ships in tactical spread abreast of each other, covering large sectors of airspace getting first-look, first-shoot.
If they closed into visual range after multiple AIM-7M shots failed to kill the threat fighters, they would still face-shoot with the AIM-9L/M, which had all-aspect capability.
F-22A and F-35s play a different game. So I mentioned the F/A-18C had at least 2 NCTR parameters in 1991. F-35 had 638 in 2016, covering multiple bands in RF spectrum, LW IR, Mid IR, short IR spectrums, with a huge threat library where each target has a multi-spectral profile set.
Focal Plane Array seekers don't care about flares because they are locked onto the specific image of their target and its constant location/presentation.
Chaff is designed to confuse and distract Radars and Radar missiles from their targets. Without going into details, you can imagine that there are counter-countermeasures for chaff and notching.
AESA Radars operate much differently than legacy Mechanically-Steered Array Radars. 2 Fighters with AESAs and Line of Sight LPI data links can maintain track on fighters trying to use common 4th Gen tactics of Radar evasion (notching in clutter while dispensing chaff).
1 Fighter with an AESA and IRST can also maintain track if a threat fighter is close enough, even if it notches against surface clutter.
Threat fighter emissions also compromise their location, especially with MSA and PESA Radars vs AESA-equipped fighters.
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@senoalamsyah7481 No other nations have even been able to figure out how to make durable high pressure turbine blades for jet engines other than the US, UK, Russia, Germany, and France. Russians are the least-durable of those, and they got decades of technical data and materials samples from the US to reach the point they’re at now, which is at least 34 years behind the US.
The Chinese don’t have permafrost over oil fields, nor do the Japanese, Koreans, Iranians, or especially Australians. They don’t have the environment to learn how to address this problem, and their institutions do not kick out petroleum engineers from a knowledge base that has been solving the problem for decades.
If you do a detailed study of these limitations, you will see why they exist.
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@casval-pj5tb Now correlate that with all the ground Russia has lost. It doesn't add up from the big picture, and they're in an extremely precarious position in Crimea.
Once fighter pilots and maintainers are already used to one type of aircraft, transitioning to another is easier than starting from scratch.
Since Man-Machine Interface is vastly-superior on Western fighters, the pilot training aspect really comes down to an accelerated conversion and then learning the weapons employment.
The logistics hubs and supply chains already exist for F-16s and F/A-18s in Europe, namely Turkey, Greece, Romania, Poland, Switzerland, Finland, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Norway, Belgium, and Slovakia, with a huge favor towards the F-16 enterprise.
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@danecook6456 US defense industry isn't even in the top 20 highest-revenue markets in the US. Did you know that? Back-up Healthcare Medicare program is over $800 Billion, not including Medicaid, which is another $218 Billion+.
Insurance, banking, pharma, big retail chains, public employee retirement funds, big tech, energy, auto, telecom, minerals/ores, farming, are all much bigger than defense.
The MIC is overly-emphasized by Russian propagandists because Russia tries to see the US through its own constraints.
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@wamnicho Russia has very limited domestic production of low-grade wheat, barley, and potatoes.
Once Russia opened up, the diversity of food at Western-built grocery stores exploded. A German company called Globus built huge shopping centers with wide variety of imported goods from Scandinavia, Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East.
It's a night and day difference between the Soviet Times where they had bread lines, empty shelves, limited fruit, limited personal hygiene products, limited or no home care products, etc.
I lived all over Europe and Russia from 1979-2016 so I'm reporting to you what the people would see, not guesses by "experts".
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@Baianoh US has helped develop Europe post-WWII, provided European security from 1945-present, helped develop Central America since the late 1800s, Phillipines, Polynesia, Australia, South America, Africa, Middle East, Asia, and even Russia.
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You need to split “the West” into Western/Central Europe and then the US/Canada/Mexico. The US/Canada/Mexico doesn’t need external energy, commodities, food, or young people and Russia and China certainly are extremely vulnerable in several of those spaces.
Western Europe definitely needs energy and young people.
If there ever was a basket case in history, Asia is it. Just look at demographics in any of the sectors. Excess males in China and India, retirement age in China with undercut young ages, fundamental structural problems throughout the spectrum regarding energy, food, security, income inequality, ethnic tensions that make the US look entirely homogenous, and all their neighbors hating them.
Most of the “news” networks have been propagating lies about who relies on whom for decades, so that people who follow established networks are systemically misinformed, not educated. This has created a society where most of what people think they know is a pack of lies.
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@MrDanisve The Norwegian Air Force Logistics Chief, Air Chief, and Defense Minister all said on separate occasions that F-35A CPFH was 110,000 Krone, including fuel, maintenance, spares, and personnel salaries.
F-16A is a lot lighter, so the thrust-to-weight ratio is excellent, and they overhauled into the F100-PW-220E. Nobody flies with the original PW-200 motors among the MSIP partner nations (Belgium, Netherlands, Norway, Denmark).
56 of Norway's 74 F-16s were upgraded to MLU, so they got a lot of Block 50 avionics with most of the increased weapons and sensor capabilities.
(We were on the F-16 program so I'm intimately familiar with it.)
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@MrDanisve The newer motors cost less to operate because there are less parts and they have FADEC, plus the hot core turbine blades are more robust by a significant margin.
Biggest cost factors for maintenance are Radar and engine, followed by hydraulics, EPU, FLCS actuators, brakes, tires, cockpit, anti-corrosion work, inspections and depot-level work.
The F-16 is a very easy aircraft to maintain. The F-35A is even easier, with a much lower break-rate, higher reliability.
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@u.p.1038 French people are very passionate and proud of their culture. When they see people allowed to immigrate there and toss French culture aside, bringing their own culture to replace it, the French get very defensive, but since they have aborted their future children, they don’t get much of a say anymore.
Same thing has happened in the UK, Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, and Finland. I have seen it firsthand, since I have been living in Europe on-and-off since 1979.
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@Ea-pb2tu Gripens have significantly reduced range once you load them with mission-relevant stores. Whatever sources you're using for performance metrics, they're way off. F-35A has dramatically-better range than the Gripen E or F-16C. Most of the payload on 4th Gen fighters is external fuel, not weapons.
When we talk about SEAD, we're discussing the ability to geolocate SAM and AAA threat guidance Radars, while countering and evading SAMs and AAA, and employing weapons against those Radars and AA weapon sites.
Gripens do not have the emitter locator sensors, nor do they have any anti-Radar missiles, nor do any Gripen operators train for this mission set.
The F/A-18C has been doing the SEAD mission profile since the late 1980s, and was an instrumental platform for executing it during many real-world missions with the HARM and MALD in Desert Storm over 30 years ago.
F-16CJ and now F-16CM Late Block Vipers are specifically equipped for the D/SEAD mission profile with the HARM Targeting System pod on station 5L, full HARM capability, LITENING or SNIPER advanced targeting FLIR pod, and pilot interface through the MFDs and HUD to execute SEAD mission sets.
Gripen Cs not only have none of that, but have never been advertised as being able to do it.
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@Ea-pb2tu US has trained and equipped for this type of war in USAFE for generations. Dispersed basing, hot-rearming/refueling, planning, contingencies, logistics, force structure, OCA, DCA, Strike, SEAD, CSAR, EW, etc. are all core mission sets for USAFE.
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