Comments by "LRRPFco52" (@LRRPFco52) on "The Beginning of the Fall of Crimea" video.

@StephenGillie So pronunciation of the city names is what you gathered from this, rather than the actual historical implications and effects on the world moving forward? This is an example of public-schooling and modern universities failing to produce a quality student who understands how to critically think. You need to take a critical thinking course, a formal one. Learn about Logic, Relevance, Significance, Completeness, Precision, Breadth, Depth, Accuracy, and Fairness. Right now, you’re demonstrating to everyone that you don’t have the mental acuity to even approach the important aspects of this subject, and are trying to compensate with an obscure canard that has zero relevance to the meat of the material.
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Zeihan bases his statements about trade on decades of study of seaport capacity for vessel displacement and viable rail yards and roads from senior people in those industries. It’s all math founded on applied physics of the ground truth. A sea port itself does not mean a viable offloading logistical capacity for enough tonnage to meet the demand of the region. If you look at shipping maps, it will become very clear. I checked his statements long ago about vessel displacement, and realized he’s about 100 steps ahead of me in that regard. None of the ports on Crimea even make the top 8 list of port traffic or capacity for heavy displacement vessels. The only port that really handles heavy displacement is Constanta in Romania. Russia would have to send supplies through Unmanned Submersible Vehicle-infested waters and hope they don’t get destroyed or interdicted by Ukrainian drone subs and vessels packed with explosives. There’s a US Naval Institute News article from 7 days ago covering how Russia is pulling their ships out of port due to the drone ship attacks, including their submarines.
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@kevf Zeihan doesn’t declare the US geographic, economic, and military advantages out of a blind sense of patriotism, but dispassionate analysis. That’s what most foreigners get wrong about him, thinking he is pushing a pro-US narrative out of an ideological motive. He’s one of the least ideological figures in this space, who doesn’t really care about policy wishes, but ground truth reality. Yes, Russia knows how bad their situation is because they’re stuck in it. I’ve lived in Russia and there is a general sense of being condemned to bad geography and bad weather, nothing you can do about it but put your head down, live a life of accepted misery. If you look at Russian naval force posture on Krim, they have been pulling out due to Unmanned Submersible Vehicles packed with explosives attacking their ships in port. Russian Air Forces haven’t been able to prosecute an effective strike campaign because they never established air dominance and suppression or destruction of enemy air defenses. As a result, Russia has lost 160+ combat aircraft in the past 8.5 months, including their latest advanced multirole fighters like the Su-30SM and Su-34.
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They’ve crossed the river now: https://youtu.be/lfIfnSY0XWI
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@kevf Direct Foreign Investments into the USD have broken all historic records just in Q1 and Q2 of 2022. Zeihan isn’t a propagandist. Nations, industries, and militaries don’t pay him to come tell them propaganda. That’s Russian inability to think outside of the Russian psyche, where everything has to be propaganda. Russia has suffered an average of 2 brain drains per generation since the Great War, so it isn’t unreasonable to accept that Russians can’t think outside of the box. The intelligentsia in Russia has largely been eradicated systemically and not showing signs of coming back.
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@StephenGillie Again, another major critical thinking failure. It isn’t your character in question, but your competence. Since you failed to gather any relevant data from the presentation, and fixated on something totally unimportant, that needs to be owned and corrected with adult remedial education. You are responsible for that.
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@gmw3083 Zeihan is a student of Russian history, geography, economics, military, religion, and politics. He's one of the few that correctly presents the Russian perspective dispassionately, which is almost never told in the West.
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@gmw3083 I've been tracking Soviet order of battle, equipment, and weapons since the 1970s. Zeihan has said from the start this is Russia's war to lose, since Russia throws bodies at problems until their enemies run out of ammo and people. It isn't playing out in Russia's favor at all so far though.
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There’s a STARTFOR video on the geography of the United States that is a must watch to understand US geography. I’ve traveled across the US and lived in 8 States in Southwest, New England, Southeast, PNW, DC/Virginia, CO, and UT and never had it explained to me that way. I watched that and asked, “Why hasn’t anyone told me this before?” I attended multiple schools, deployed all over as a military brat and active duty soldier, lived all over abroad, did strategic analyses of terrain and combat systems in their regional deployment postures, constantly measuring distances, power centers, bases, weapons reach, logistic routes, population centers, water bodies, and still never saw the big picture the way George Friedman and Peter Zeihan laid it all out.
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@kevf The US never wanted any of this. Ukraine wanted to trade with Europe and get Euro valuation for their goods and services, not deal with Rubles anymore than absolutely necessary. That’s what this war is really about. Putin had his puppet Yanukovych sign onto the Russian-Eurasian Economic Pact in late 2013. Ukraine protested for 4 months in all the major cities until Yanukovych fled in 2014. That’s when Hunter Biden got on the board of Burisma, and Putin invaded Donbas while annexing Krim. Forget about the US, who hasn’t contributed much to Ukraine, and think about UK, Poland, and Europe. Europe has more motive than anyone to present Russian cancer from spreading into their nations again. Biden, a Russian puppet who has been on Soviet payroll since 1972, delayed deliveries of critical munitions and weapons systems throughout the war. Oryx Report shows all losses in Ukraine, not just Russian. Stop consuming Russian information sources and look at dispassionate, non-aligned, independent reports with accompanying photographs and video of all weapon and equipment losses.
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@kevf Look at a map and then figure out how BRICS will work. Imagine India and China with a shared economic policy! What kind of idiot thinks of such alignments? There are 3 individual US States who separately have better economies than Russia. Russia has extremely limited access to trade routes and no heavy displacement sea ports. Novorossiysk is Russia’s largest sea port, isn’t even the largest in the Black Sea. That belongs to Romania. Even if China, India, Brazil, and South Africa wanted to elevate trade relations with Russia, there is no physical space and infrastructure to accomplish it. It simply does not exist and can’t exist.
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@divekatdreaming Sevastopol doesn't even rank anywhere near the larger capacity sea ports in the Black Sea. I looked it up on several shipping industry-specific sites that track seaport tonnage per year and what size vessels they can accommodate. Sevastopol is relatively small compared to the top 10 ports in the Black Sea, and the Black Sea itself, while regionally-significant, is miniscule compared to other regions. The fact Russia is pulling out its naval vessels from Crimea is telltale that they don't have other port options. I would prefer to see satellite imagery to document the sea port activity since the start of the war.
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@gmw3083 I've been following Zeihan since the 2000s. He's one of the precious few dispassionate analysts you will come across. I don't agree with everything he says of course, but he's been forecasting events that happen for many years, right along with George Friedman. If you have partisan or national bias, it will be difficult to listen to ground truth geopolitical analyses.
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@gmw3083 My bias is the truth. Putin's operation was coordinated with Biden. Biden was supposed to whisk Zelensky and his family out of Kiev, so Russian forces could quickly seize Kiev and systematically advance to Odessa, sealing off all Ukrainian sea ports, then dealing with the remnants of a disorganized Ukrainian Army acting more like guerrillas and partisans. By Zelensky refusing to leave and acting as the legitimate head of state, he was able to coordinate supplies from Europe to counter Russia. The only other time Russians have faced precision-guided munitions was in Syria, when Wagner mercenaries attacked US SOF units over the Euphrates with their Syrian battle group. They were decimated for 6 hours after that mistake. Battle of Khasham, 7 Feb, 2018. This is why Biden has delayed shipments of US weapons to Ukraine.
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@gmw3083 Biden has been on Russian payroll since 1972. They literally financed his campaign into the Senate through Council for a Livable World. Yes, people under Biden continue to coordinate with Russia to subvert US interests. Putin’s plan backfired horrendously on him in Ukraine, and likely eliminated his chances of going after Poland, the Baltics, eastern Romania, and Finland during his presidency. Now that Europe has seen how easy it is to curb-stomp Russian forces, it will be a potentially-volatile time, because they don’t want this spilling into Europe anymore, and Putin has to somehow continue to sell his image as a strong man to the Russian people. The Russian tactic of throwing bodies at the problem doesn’t work against modern ISR networks and precision munitions, because they can find, fix, and attrit logistics nodes with impunity.
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He has addressed that for well over a decade. Who wants to trade in Russian rubles? It’s literally a worthless currency outside of Russia, and isn’t valued inside of Russia over dollars. Most of the world’s oil and sea trade is measured in and exchanged in dollars. No other nation or collection of nations has a secure banking system or regional security from foreign invaders, so the US is the only safe bet. Add that to the US economy being the largest and without peer, where there exists mass industry, no foreign invaders on its borders, the largest bread basket in the world, a vast connected river network, coastal sea ports that allow heavy displacement vessels across 3 huge coastlines, protected by the biggest and most powerful military in the world. BRICS has none of that, and they aren’t even geographically connected. Russia, China, and India all have beef with each other in some way, especially China vs Russia and India vs China. China relies on the US as its biggest trade partner and protector of oil shipments from the Persian Gulf. The moment China tries to go it alone, or ally with Russia for security of trade, they’re toast.
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