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LRRPFco52
Zeihan on Geopolitics
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Comments by "LRRPFco52" (@LRRPFco52) on "Peter Zeihan || The Ukraine War: Operational Updates" video.
It isn't 700,000 all at once. Russia couldn't marshall and train that many in centers before going to Ukraine. They're feeding them in 300-1000 at a time, like little branches into the fire.
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@theswede5402 Middle ground fallacy is usually wrong. In this case, Russian casualties could very likely be worse than almost everyone's assessments, while Ukraine doesn't even know what theirs are due to the civilian losses.
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@MarcosElMalo2 Zeihan has studied Russian history and Russian military history for decades. He and every other military historian, retired General Officers, and defense analysts all thought Ukraine would fall quickly and turn into an occupation/guerilla conflict with Russia controlling the sea ports and airfields. Zelensky threw a wrench in that plan by refusing Biden's attempt to pull him out. Ukrainian Army then had a rallying cry with a functioning government who could still coordinate imports of foreign military supplies and weapons. Combined with Russia's utter incompetence and derelict military forces, we got a drawn-out conflict. Peter distills all of that into a format that the layman can understand, rather than getting so lost in the weeds that most won't know what he's talking about. It's very easy for specialists to question his forecasts for that reason.
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@wor4yn Individual soldiers have literally no way of assessing casualties for the whole conflict. A soldier fighting day-to-day is less likely to understand the overall theater intelligence assessment, and will only see what's around them. Neither side has motive to report accurate casualty rates because that would provide BDA for the other, who can then see where they're most effective.
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@joemichels4530 IF that ratio is correct, it's because of HIMARS, M777, UAS surveillance and Targeting, plus theater ISR platforms with info-sharing with Ukraine. Russian soldiers have frequently reported that Uk rarely fires artillery, but when it hits, it's dead-on accurate and causes mass casualties, destruction of equipment and munitions storage. Look at what Trump did to Wagner in the Battle of Khasham in Feb 2018.
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@jeanprimeau5689 What military experience did he have prior? Pretty much every Russian male is conscripted or trained as an officer in university. A lot of the mobilization is activation of conscripts and officers. They still suck due to watered-down conscription terms that have regressed since the Czarist Times. They incrementally have reduced the numbers and experience of soldiers and sailors over the past 106 years, even during the Soviet Times.
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