Comments by "LRRPFco52" (@LRRPFco52) on "Odessa, and The Ukraine War" video.
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@becnal Novorossiysk is well within the range of Ukrainian ballistic missiles, naval commandos, and even still without those, naval mines have been appearing all over the Black Sea already. At a minimum, assuming that no military attacks will ever happen against Novorossiysk (big gamble), any tankers will need mine-sweeper escorts and will have to assume that Turkey will be totally fine with them passing through the Bosphorus.
To counter that, I could argue that Russia will provide the mine-sweeping operations for any oil tankers.
Then those tankers will need to pass through the Suez Canal, the Red Sea, around the Horn of Africa and into ports in India, while others will have to pass through the Strait of Malacca, the South China Sea, and into sea ports in China.
All of those areas have entered the first month of being cut off from Russian and Ukrainian grains on a 90-day cycle of food supplies, and the incentives for piracy or seizing of sanctioned vessels will be high.
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