Comments by "LRRPFco52" (@LRRPFco52) on "China Update" channel.

Hans Otto Kroeger Kaethler Because US doesn't have any foreign threats on its borders, has the biggest, most productive, most diversified economy, a vast industrial and service sector base, with trillions flowing into it with DFI over the past 30 years. When regional instability happens, nations and investors rush to the dollar. Most of what I see in this conversation typically misses the multi-factorial components to the dollar as a world reserve currency, bypassing those metrics while talking myopically about petrodollar.
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@skydragon23101979 RC-135 is unarmed, so your analogy fails basic logic. By your logic, the US should sent F-22A escorts at higher altitude and if any J-16s show up, we should jam their comms and head-butt them too, right?
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A lot of the ethnic rural minorities don't even speak Mandarin.
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Quarantining asymptomatic people has nothing to do with disease control, and everything to do with control.
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They already entered into long term energy contracts with Gazprom and Rosneft in 2013, worth $670 Billion dollars. Those Eastern Siberian oil fields are under the permafrost, which have only been serviced by US and Canadian petroleum engineering firms who are uniquely-equipped to drill through and extract through that type of ground. Those companies have already pulled out of Russia over a month ago. The tooling and technical expertise to use it is extremely advanced.
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Hans Otto Kroeger Kaethler You might want to study up on how diverse and deep the US economy is. DoD isn't even in the top 20 industries in the US. Do a search for top 10 industries in US. Also, look at the top 20 companies in the world. Most are in the US and in industries that are growing. Anytime you see someone mention defense spending in relation to the US economy, you know the conversation is in the wrong place.
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Hans Otto Kroeger Kaethler US domestic debt is much larger than foreign debt. That means that not only do foreign governments have more faith in the future of the US economy, but US finance industry and consumers have more faith than all the foreign lenders in the world combined. As you study the US economy seriously, you start to accept the reality instead of the uninformed sound bites that are often promoted by people with zero finance experience or basic research.
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It's funny to see so many people over the years talk about the superior and long-term genius of Chinese planners, as if One Child policy never happened.
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What if lock downs have a different purpose entirely?
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The terrain, climate, and regional enterprises make construction of such a railroad a net negative before it even starts. Belt & Road is one of the most ill-conveived transportation programs ever proposed.
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@skydragon23101979 Incorrect. US is a huge industrial, energy, automotive, mineral, agricultural, and tech economy. This is easily-verifiable data. Defense is not even close to the top. Defense is big in exports for sure, but look at automotive, petrochemical exports (millions of barrels are imported to the US to be refined, then exported, in addition to extracted oil/NG from US fields). The US has huge and diversified manufacturing capacity, to the extent that individual States out-perform most nations across several industries.
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Hans Otto Kroeger Kaethler US makes its own energy and food. China does not. China is extremely vulnerable in those spaces, both of which have been stressed now that China's sources for energy and food are depressed and headed into emergency levels of reduced supply.
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Hans Otto Kroeger Kaethler US is the biggest bread basket in the world. Halliburton, Slumberger, and Exxon-Mobile pulled out of Russian fields and Russia has no ability to maintain those drilling operations without the US. US is a net exporter of food and energy, China is a massively-disproportinate importer of food and energy under protected routes of the US Navy. This seems like a bot account. Enough with you.
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@anothermike4825 Bringing in “really smart people” to work for sociopaths has been the norm throughout history to help them maintain control and satiate their lust for power, which they can never get enough of.
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@anothermike4825 Centrally-planned economies and political systems are the most failure-prone of all. Diversified economies and cellular structures are far more enduring. The problem is that power-thirsty find ways to overcome checks and balances against them, and get into centralized power to dictate their nightmare onto everyone they can. We also never have seen a pure political-economic system. They are always hybrids of multiple influences and counters. The Soviet Union couldn’t function without its black market and adaptive local-level deal-making under the constraints of central planning. Chinese communists embraced capitalistic industries and trade to fuel their unchecked growth. The US’s largesse has financed bigger social welfare programs than Europe for the better part of a century and very few even notice. Medicare’s budget alone is bigger than DoD, for example, not including Medicaid or any State programs like MediCal. You hear nothing about that, only how wasteful DoD is. Same for schooling. We have a centralized, non-US schooling system in the US that came from a bygone kingdom most people have never heard of.
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@skydragon23101979 Peak working age already happened in China in 2015, so labor costs are only increasing now. That AI is going to need to support a 700 million elderly population with diaper changes, home visits, hospital care, etc.
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@skydragon23101979 If I'm a manufacturer looking for higher quality and affordable labor, with a US market focus, I'm going to Mexico, not China. I also hate it when my products that I spent years developing and testing are stolen by Chinese companies. It also happened to the company my wife works for. China has stolen the products of her company, and refuses to take that IP down, no matter how many times they are contacted and told to cease and desist. Stealing 45 million women from other countries isn't going to work either. The recipe for China's future is a global catastrophe if you look at the fundamentals.
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Did you ever see the Lethal Weapon movie where they blew up the real estate development? That was The Legends, which went under mid-contract. Was right near my neighborhood we used to live in.
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Can you short a tofucrete deal? 😅😅
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Hans Otto Kroeger Kaethler Also, as the US shows disinterest in the world, demand for US exports increases, and Americans don't even know the US is the 2nd largest exporter. US exports are only about 15% of the economy, since we consume so much of what we produce.
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Hans Otto Kroeger Kaethler You just proved exactly what I said. People don't understand debt very well at all.
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@alanparsonsfan To make it worse, they still relied on foreign experts to manage extraction after the collapse. They thought they could form a huge strategic partnership in Oil/NG sales to China, without factoring in the US and Canadian services companies, especially in the Eastern Sibersk fields. China overlooked this too. Russia supplied 11% of oil/NG to China in 2013, which had risen to 19% in 2019. It will be interesting to see how both nations try to work around this going forward.
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Where is Jack Ma by the way? Haven't seen much of him in a while. It's almost like he just vanished...
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@nfuryboss China doesn’t have a maintenance culture. They are still primitive-minded people who don’t understand or see regular maintenance of vehicles, roads, bridges, or construction. It’s all a foreign concept to them.
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@taiwanisacountry I think the XiCP command structure is so atrophied at this point that nobody has the nerve to tell Xi the real status of operational units, while he’s received nothing but 100% positive result reports from commanders from bottom-to-top, as nobody dares bear bad news. This gives Xi a false sense of capability for a large and cumbersome military that has historically been focused on internal security, but has been trying to emulate the US military for the past 2 decades or more. This would result in an embarrassing defeat, open season on PLN vessels, but also significant destruction to Taiwan, with no real ability of the PLN, PLAAF, and PLA to execute an occupation.
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@Defective1313 The past 8 White Houses ran campaigns with no foreign policy focus. I went and looked at every Presidential campaign from 1992-2020, which ranged from "It's the economy, stupid." and "Compassionate conservatism" to Healthcare Reform and "Make America Great Again". Every single President ran on the acceptance of Soviet collapse in 1991, with a peace dividend and opportunity to focus on domestic issues, namely economy, infrastructure, Healthcare, education, jobs, and renegotiating trade deals. Nobody has ever clearly articulated in a persuasive way why the US is investing hundreds of billions every year in providing defense for Europe and Pacific nations.
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@jasperhorace7147 The interesting thing is that this type of messaging is never explained in any of the US media that I have seen since the 1970s. It’s always "the sky is falling", "some other country is buying up everything", "America is weak", etc. In the 1980s, it was the Japanese buying everything. “They’re taking us over!” All that really amounted to was the Japanese businessmen saw the structural problems of the Japanese economy from the ground level, and got their money out as soon as possible. Same thing happened with China, but Xi put a stop to it because liquidity was hemorrhaging out of China at alarming levels. This was camouflaged as a corruption crack-down, but was in reality a power-grab to retain liquidity from Chinese billionaires who knew where the real security and viability long-term exists. We have seen foreign investors buying as many US residential and commercial real estate assets up, inflating the cost of homes along with lack of home supply. The US economy has emerged from every decade since WWII in better shape than the previous decade. Nobody has had long-term growth like that.
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Hans Otto Kroeger Kaethler You missed: Apple Microsoft Amazon Alphabet/Google Visa Facebook Wal-Mart Coca-Cola Disney McDonald's AT&T Nike Verizon Look at how many of the top 20 highest revenue companies are in the US. Now look at the energy and food shortages China is facing, and prepare to watch China decline dramatically.
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@skydragon23101979 Who said there are no consequences to liberty and freedom? Not me. I lean heavily on freedom and the consequences it brings, vs slavery and oppression. China is headed towards 50% of those 1.4 Billion at retirement age, with 45 million excess prime age males. That's a recipe for civil war.
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@skydragon23101979 I’m not anti-China. If China collapses like I think it will, it will send shockwaves of devastation around the world. I think we’re already watching the opening acts of that happening now. The Chinese growth period has come to an end, and now is going into retraction, first in the real estate sector, now in supply side. The energy and food shortages will significantly affect China. Look at where China gets most of its oil. That region just got hit with 70% of their wheat imports shut off. Russia only supplied 11% of Chinese Oil/NG in 2013, then after the Gazprom and Rosneft deals in 2013, that rose to 14.6% in 2019. That pipeline in Sibersk was serviced by Halliburton and Slumberger. They ceased services within the first 2 weeks of Russia invading Ukraine. Exxon Mobile just pulled out of their Russian services operations as well. Why is that important? Can’t Russia just replace those services? Why did Russia need those services in the first place? Russia never had the ability to drill through the permafrost. Only 2 nations can do that and have the advanced technology and petroleum engineers, plus the tooling to do it. That’s the US and Canada, and the Canadian tech comes from the US. The drill bits and machinery they use is more advanced than any of the components in rockets. The metallurgy is extremely advanced, not duplicated anywhere. That’s all turned off now. How will China solve their energy and food shortages? Right now, the plan seems to be to use COVID as an excuse to limit people’s movement and feed them vegetables on a reduced calorie diet. How long will that last?
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@anothermike4825 You realize that AI is based on algorithms programmed by humans? Look at what has happened with mass censorship on these big tech platforms. Also, courts can be bought off and co-opted, like the US Supreme Court has with Justice Roberts and his adoption scandal. They have him by the short hairs. We need less and less centralized power where people are left alone to live their lives, and elect capable planners who interoperate with each other on a very limited scale.
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@skydragon23101979 I follow multiple ground truth sources from researchers living in China, not single points of failure information choke points. I have also lived all over Asia Pacific and Eurasia, so this isn’t academic for me, but very real. Food shortages and floods have been a constant problem for China since the 1600s. When China imported non-regional foods during the times of Spanish conquest in the Philippines, that fueled China’s population explosion because those foods were able to be grown on slopes. China was previously limited to rice and wheat fields that were at maximum capacity. If you look at a Chinese population timeline, you will immediately see what I’m talking about.
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Crashing a J-8II interceptor into an EP-3E Orion in international waters in 2001 that was then forced to land on Hainan Island to save the crew and aircraft. The Chinese military leaders were afraid to report it to Beijing because they effed up so badly. The pilot was a retard who didn't even know how to rejoin professionally, and crashed into the P-3, killing himself. There was a delay because of the uncertainty within the PLAF and government about what to do. That's how professional PLAF is. 3rd world country trying to run an air force. China isn't mature enough to fly aircraft, and proves this regularly.
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@skydragon23101979 With all of China's vast territory, they can conduct all the exercises they want. Foreign aircraft can fly in international airspace as usual. Russia flies high-speed strategic bomber runs towards the US and has even crossed into US airspace at times without unprofessional conduct by US interceptor pilots. It's a different culture. China is petulant, petty, childish, and afraid of unarmed Recon aircraft. The US is resolute, professional, and confident in its airmanship.
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@ustmissouri8029 They have hundreds of millions of disposable people. They are over 1.4 billion now with no way to keep the lights on or to feed them all. Something has to give, in the minds of the CCP. That might have been the whole point of the release of SARSCoV2 from Wuhan, after it was developed in conjunction with UNC Chapel Hill. US researchers complained for years about the chimeric experiments (making human-animal hybrids to get zoonotic diseases to jump into humans), and that was finally banned in 2014. That’s when Shi Zhengli picked up all the chimeric program (human-mice hybrids) from UNC and took them to Wuhan. Shi was working under Fauci’s funding. I’ve looked at the patent applications dating back to 2002 and built a timeline that shows how SARS and SARSCoV2 were planned and developed with the intent of gain of threat to humans. They openly state it in their research descriptions and patent applications. The Chinese are also very invested in genetic targeting with mRNA devices.
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@zzbeasley All the US has to do is withdraw and let China collapse from within. They have fundamental structural fissures that aren’t fixable.
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@alanparsonsfan I've been reading internal Russian economics papers from their universities on the history of oil/NG from 1950-1991. I was almost shocked to learn that they never invested in developing their own institutional knowledge for advanced petroleum engineering, but instead relied on foreigners to do that work all those years. They went from a net importer to huge net exporter, and realized massive revenues from foreign sales. Instead of investing the profits back into developing their knowledge base and fixing structural problems inflicted by central planning, they camouflaged the symptoms while believing their own propaganda until it was too late. The economy was trash already by the early 1970s, and the efforts of reform in the mid-late 1980s came too little, too late as the boat went over the edge of the fall.
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Even with all the millions in bribes they have paid for decades to the Biden family, they can't compensate for China's structural fissures that are now rattling and grinding to a crescendo before the crash.
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Americans are fed up with the fake partisanship kabuki theater and are looking for more populism. Trump is the first populist President we've had since Reagan, who was preceded by FDR. Anytime you have a populist President, it means at least 12 years of his party in office or 3 terms because his VP rides in on the coattails. Since Trump wasn't part of the establishment, the political-economic class pulled out all the stops to get him out, because they couldn't handle 8 more years of a Trump-crafted National leadership structure that didn't annoint spineless sell-outs per the usual formula for the WH.
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You don't "re-balance" your population by murdering infants for 35 years. That imbalances the population into an inverted pyramid that collapses on itself.
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I've said for years that if the CCP could push a button that would quickly exterminate hundreds of millions of people in China, they wouldn't hesitate. They already ran an infanticide program from 1980-2015 with One Child policy, cutting their demographic legs out from underneath themselves.
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