Comments by "Patrick Donnolley" (@ph89787) on "The Drydock - Episode 257 (Part 1)" video.
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I have issues with the Imperial Japanese Navy winning (or at least damaging) Task Force 58 at the Philippine Sea.
1. By 1944, the US Destroyers were to attack radar contact without waiting for orders. Sure, the Type 93 "Long Lance" has more range, and it can become a problem at night. As the pure oxygen they run on produces little to no wake. But this is mitigated if US Destroyers can first achieve a firing solution for their guns and torpedoes. Lee can use the destroyers to help his Cruisers and Battleships. There are issues with the presence of Yamato and Musashi because those 18-inch Guns would increase the standoff distance between the two battle lines. However, the mitigating factor for the IJN was that on 2 June 1944 (according to the combined fleet website). Yamato and Musashi engaged in gunnery exercises off Tawi Tawi against a destroyer at 38,280 Yards (35,000 meters). Musashi's Gunnery Officer Yunoki Shigenori was chewed out for the large spread from Musashi's main guns alone. Of course, at roughly the same time, Lee had his own issues with the Fast Battleship's own gunnery with their own bombardment of Saipan. But would the US Navy's radar and fire control allow the guns to acquire targets sooner than the Japanese equipment?
2. It would be a Mexican standoff between the two carrier forces. But at the same time, Mitscher has the means to get a strike against the IJN battle line earlier in the form of Torpedo Squadron 10 on Enterprise. I still remember the risk you bought up in your "What if Admiral Lee sailed west" video of either side having a friendly fire. Either Lee's ships would fire on the Avengers or LTCDR William I Martin (CO of VT-10)'s Avengers accidentally attack Lee's battle line. However, if Edward Stafford's book on Enterprise is anything to go by. Mitscher was planning on VT-10 to engage in a night attack on the Japanese fleet on 20 June. Had Task Force 58 hadn't spent that night recovering their pilots from the afternoon strike. For this scenario, if Mitscher authorises a night Torpedo or glide bombing by VT-10, the best target would be the battleships, given their size. Yamato and Musashi would be the primary targets for the attack. These attacks may not stop the Japanese battle line entirely. But it would mess with them in focusing on more than one target vector. Plus, they cannot devote much to their dual-purpose guns. Plus, unlike the American Carriers, the Japanese ones did not carry night fighters. At the same time, Mitscher would have the other carriers begin preparing to unleash deck load strikes before dawn. Its debatable which one gets off the deck first. But Mitscher would've been watching the time to launch his strike as soon as possible. This could result in the American strike arriving before the Japanese one and finishing their battle line and protecting Lee's ships as they withdraw.
3. There are also Kamikazes. Say by the start of 1944, the Imperial Japanese Navy High Command accepted that their pilots are no longer capable of fighting their way through an American CAP or anti-aircraft defence the conventional way, as they did in 1942. Instead, it is proposed that the planes launch from the carriers and suicide into the US ships. With the escorting Zeroes deliberately causing midair collisions with the CAP, Judy's Jills and Vals Kates make Kamikaze runs on Task Force 58. Once they have been launched, Ozawa retains a few fighters for self-defence and withdraws to a safe distance. The CAP was distracted by suicidal aircraft despite the formidable AA defences. Not all the aircraft would be shot down and could crash into the fleet and light carriers.
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