Comments by "Biomorphic" (@biomorphic) on "Defense Politics Asia (DPA)"
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@stuglenn1112 I know that very well, this is clearly a proxy war, and the outcome will depend on how long and how much US and EU will support Ukraine. But things aren't looking good for Russia. Too many mistakes have been done by the Russian generals, tactical and strategic mistakes. No one really knows the truth about the casualties. But I want to remind you that Russia lost 18 millions of people alone, and axis lost between Japan and Germany just over 6 millions during WW2. Indeed allies still won the war. So the casualties aren't a great indicator, because Ukrainians are determined to fight till the last man, Russians are not, at least not at this stage of the conflict. If this war goes on the long run, let's say 2 or even 3 years, the outcome is unpredictable. US alone spent only 0.5% of the GDP to support Ukraine so far. That was enough, with a side contribute from Europe, to obtain major victories on the field and regain territory. Also Ukraine has a better intelligence than Russia, because they have Starlink, they can communicate coordinates between command posts very quickly. Allies equipment is, generally speaking, superior to the Russian equivalent. Russia invested a lot in nuclear weapons, because it's part of their doctrine and because that is a deterrent, but now they are fighting a conventional war, and S-500 or BrahMos don't provide any value. They tanks, the T90 don't stand a chance against the modern Javelins. T-14 Armata can't make a difference, because they have just a few. Also the number of tanks they have has been heavily overestimated. They barely have 3000 tanks, not 15000 like claimed on so many websites. I was thinking Russia could win easily, but now I am not sure anymore. These 300k men mobilised aren't going to be enough, because Ukraine will mobilise other men, that EU and UK will train. It's possible that Ukrainians will get Western tanks, like the Leopard, less likely jet fighters. We'll see what German will do, but we'll see how much pressure Europeans will put on their governments to put an end to the support. We'll see how the winter goes, the inflation, the gas and electricity prices. There are a lot of variables. Putin thinks he can win in the long run, but this could be another mistake, a fatal one.
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