Comments by "Nattygsbord" (@nattygsbord) on "Why no multi-turreted tanks? - Briefing September 2017" video.
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Firstly, Germany did not have enough ships for sea lion. Secondly I don't think the German air force would be able to destroy the royal air force, and then the royal navy, and then being able to pull off support for a land invasion of Britain in the short span of just a few months.
And even if Britain have had a weaker government that signed a peace treaty with the Germans, I still don't think it would dramatically change the situation on the Eastern Front.
Sure, Germany could have won in the east even if Hitler was with the western powers. His killratio was exhausting the Russians faster than the Germans until 1944, and Hitlers Southern offensive in 1942 could have been devestating for Russia.
But nevertheless, so was the odds against Germany. And 3 German Divisions in North Africa, the Italian army, and some German Garrison troops in the west was still not enough men to secure a victory on the Eastern front.
Odds would still be against Germany.
And even if 1940 had been a period of peace after the fall of France, that would have made food imports from South America possible for Germany. But Germany would still probably be dependent on oil from Russia. Unless it could import from oil from Persia and Indonesia.
But the war on Russia was not just a resource matter. Hitler wanted the land for his people, and he wanted to exterminate the slavs. Nothing would probably have stopped Hitler from attacking Russia, even if it clearly was against the best interest of his own country.
Germany would lose a friendship. It would lose a great trade partner. And its armies would suffer horrific losses that would weaken Germany immensly.
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You confuse skill with luck. The Germans were just lucky that they could destroy the largest air force in the world the first day of Barbarossa with a surprse attack on Russian airfields. And without air support the German army would have suffered huge losses in 1941, because the German artillery was 12 times weaker than the Russian artillery in 1941, and 20 times weaker in 1944.
Furthermore did the Russians posses tanks in better quality and quantatity than any military in the world in 1941. And no other country even came close to match them. So had Stalin not forbidden retreats and incentivised stupid decisionmaking, then the Germans would not have won the great victories they had in 1941.
And the German Army lost 3000 men per day during Barbarossa. So no one could fool me into believing 3 Afrika Korps divisions of 45.000 men would have made any difference on the Eastern Front. 45.000 men would just had been eaten up in only 15 days.
Only the battle for Moscow alone killed more German solidiers than the losses it took during all the invasions of western Europe combined (Poland, Denmark, Norway, Belgium, Netherlands, France).
The German military was exhausted by october and should have taken a rest instead of pushing onwards. Its logistics was strained. More than half of the tanks were no longer operational because of all wear and tear and fighting, huge manpower losses needed to be replaced, Stuka pilots were being by all the bombing missions and the Luftwaffe didn't have enough bombs or planes to deal with even half of all the targets that were on the list to bomb.
So an attack on Moscow in 1941 was simply overly ambitious, and a stupid waste of resources. And even if they had sacrificed all and gotten into the city, its doubtful that they could have taken it. Probably it would just have been lots of bloody streetfighting.
And neighter woul the conquest of Moscow have ended the war. The Swedes took Moscow in 1612, and that didn't mean the conquest of Russia, and neighter did Napoleons conquest of the city 200 years later end differently.
Probably would the Germans just be too weak to both hold the city and protect their own flanks, so the option was to retreat and leave the city or getting encirled and trapped as they were in Stalingrad.
And Germany was once again lucky that they didn't lose the war already in the winter 1941-42 when Stalin launched his massive counteroffensive that pushed the Germans back 300km and nearly crushed the German defensive line in the central Russia.
Hitler refused to listen to his Generals, and his policy of forbidding retreats had saved the German Wehrmacht from total destruction. And Stalins massive offensive turned into a costly disaster for the Russians since they were easily cut off and destroyed when they had pushed forward so fast that supplies couldn't keep up..
The winter offensive was a disaster for the Red Army. And without this disaster it would have been impossible for Hitler to start an offensive in Russia in 1942. Furthermore had Germany also lost enormous amounts of planes, heavy artillery and machines during their winter retreat. And manpower losses to cold and fighting was huge despite they won a victory.
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So would I say that Germany would be the likely victor in war against Russia? No.
They had a small chance. But odds were not in their favour.
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