Comments by "Nattygsbord" (@nattygsbord) on "World War Management 101" video.
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They would probably have a hard time. Industrial countries does have an advantage - like the North had in the American Civil War. And in world war 1 Russia was suffering from a cronic shortage of rifles, guns - and most of all: Ammunition.
Building up an industry is something that takes time. At best it would normally take 15-30 years for a country to industrialize. Not only do you need a factory, you also need to import tools and machinery and modern production technologies in order to be able to build modern tanks, planes, cruise missiles and submarines.... You will also have to solve the problem, that a country that does not do any manufacturing will not get any foreign currency to pay for all imports.
And even if you somehow get some imports and manage to steal a perfect blueprint of the latest fighter jet from the pentagon, you will not be able to copy it unless you got skilled workers and years of technological know-how within the aircraft producers in your country.
Allow me to quote economic proffessor Ha Joon Chang:
"When Germany became as poor as Peru and Mexico right after the Second World War, no one suggested that it should be reclassified as a developing country, because people knew that it still had command over technological, organizational and institutional knowledge that had made it one of the most formidable industrial powers before the war."
So as you see, building up technological know-how, organizatinal skills, and well-functioning institutions takes a long time. And neighter Peru or Mexico have catched and are as rich as Germany today despite their GDP was roughly the same size in 1945.
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World war II was a bit special, America had its great depression and lots of unemployed, and women were outside the labourmarket, so it was possible to smoothly move workers into new jobs.
In a future war I do think the west still got much to give in a war effort. The post-industrial society is largely a myth. Fewer people work in the industry today and more people work in the service sector for two main reasons. Firstly because there is a trend that companies wanna specialize in their core activities, and back in the old days a car manufacturer, for example Volvo, could hire people to work as cleaners and having people handling all the bills. But now those same cleaners and finance experts could do the exactly same jobs as before for Volvo, but now they work for a separate cleaning or finance company that works for Volvo.
Nothing has changed in the real world, but in statistics things seems to have changed because the cleaner and banker no longer works in an industry company but are now instead classed as service sector workers.
Another reason why less people are working on the factory floor is because industrial robots and machinery can do the job more effective oftentimes. You don't have any worker strikes, no paid vacations, no maturnity leave, no sick workers staying home, and no gossip.
And robots can also work in enviroments too dangerous for human labour, they can work in noisy dirty enviroments, and they can lift things that weight many tonnes, and they can make things with greater precision than a human surgeon.
So I wouldn't say that the industry lacks capacity, in fact I think the contrary is true. And in terms of money that are going into the government by taxes, we still see that the industry still plays a huge role in most western economies.
And if a world war with China starts, then I think people would consume less and money would instead be used for investments in more industrial robots and new production plants.
And labour-intensive production methods would be replaced with capital intensive production methods, since we got lots of money and techological know how, and little manpower.
And China would do the opposite since they got much people that can become workers, but they can not afford many machines.
So the west would be able to send a larger proportion of its male population to war since fewer people are needed to produce a tank than what China would need due to its lack of robots.
We still have high unemployment today today, and most people do work with bullshit jobs - marketing/advertisement, tourism, selling financial products of no use to society, genderstudies proffessors, making goldplated toilets and luxury yachts for billionaires, salesmen of anal bleaching, public relations executives and management consultants....... yep there are lots of people one can pick and either dressup in a military uniform or put to work in a factory to make that uniform.
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USA is still the largest economy in the world and most of the highly productive Fortune 500 companies are stationed there, and the country holds a technological leadership. And Britain is still one of the largest economies in the world despite their shrinking importance of their manufacturing industry, the country still produces a lot of things, but if we divde up the industrial production with the number of citizens, then country produces very little nowadays and needs to reindustrialize.
And Germany, Japan, Scandinavia are still making things.
I would not go so far as to say its decline has been a statistical illusion
To some extent it is. And it can explain atleast some of the decline. People always say that we live in a post-industrial society, but I would say that manufacturing is still the most important sector in an economy.
Neighter farming or the service sector can make the same productivity increases.
We are 400 times more productive in making cotton clothes than we were in the early 1800s, and while a skilled worker could make 2000 cigares per day in the early in 1800s, there are now machines that can make 5000 cigarettes per minute.
So could a farmer do the same and increase his harvest 400 times bigger than his ancestors? nope.
Can a service sector person make two hundred more haircuts per hour than a barber in Rome? no.
Can a chef serve a hundred more meals? no.
Only manufacturing can also bring in foreign currency into the country to pay for all the imports. So I would say that manufacturing still plays a key roll in the modern economy. Unfortunatly it has often been neglected by modern intellectuals who say that a service based economy and banking is the future.
The US will be fine, lots of cash protected by two oceans, the worlds biggest navy to keep supply lines open and an abundance of most resources. Europeans, Japan, Russia ect. I might be alot harder for them.
Germany and Japan could build a huge military, but they have just choosen not to do so. And if they were to spend more on their own military - as America wants - then they would get some substantial military forces, as West-Germany had during the cold war.
And Britain and France still got some of the most powerful armies in the world. And the German, South Korean and Japanease airforces are still quite large, and relativly strong compared to the Chinease airforce which still uses ancient garbage like MIG-17 fighter jets.
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