Comments by "Nattygsbord" (@nattygsbord) on "Europe gives Ukraine 1 MILLION Shells: Ursula von der Leyen in Kyiv" video.
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@manishdyall4779
It includes shells that are built this year in Europe, and it includes ammunition stored up on shelves in ammunition depots around Europe which can be used until ammunition production have been ramped up suffiecently to keep up with the demand from the frontline.
That is what I got out from the EU press conferance in Stockholm, and my own interpretation and reading between the lines of what they were saying.
Japan have also openly said that they will begin giving deadly weapons to Ukraine. So I take that as a sign that Japanese 155mm shells might be available in the future. I also know that USA have been buying South Korean ammunition and been giving it to Ukraine. And given how Switzerland have given Germany Leopard2 tanks, and Germany in turn have given their own Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.. I would not be surprised if "neutral" countries would act a bit in the same way regarding ammunition.
And I think that the example of South Korea highlights that.
Also countries in the middle east is of importance to gain access to more rockets for the rocket artillery, and Egypt is an example of that.
152mm Soviet ammunition is rare and difficult for Ukraine to get their hands on because it is made in Russia. East European countries have given what they have stored and ammo has been bought from Arabia. But demand still outstrips supply. So ammunition factories in Ukraine and Bulgaria is producing what they can to supply Ukraine with soviet shells.
I don't see artillery shells as an acute crisis anymore. Because Ukraine does not have a large stock of western artillery and a steady flow of ammunition.
Russia on the other hand is consuming shells at an unsubstainable rate. Their artillery fire is more inaccurate and that problem is only getting worse. It now lacks counter-battery radars. And it lacks modern artillery pieces, modern ammunition, good crews, good artillery crews and good intelligence and they do not even seem to bother sending up drones to correct their artillery fire after a miss.
So Russias artillery is getting weaker and weaker each month. While Ukraines remains about the same as before. It might even become better as crews earns more skills, and as effectivness is not reduced by counter-battery fire anymore when Russia have no counter-battery radars.
And a future shipment of another hundred extra M109 artillery pieces from Italy will strongly boost Ukraines capabilities even further.
And if things continue down the same path as for the last one and a half year of this war, then would I not be surprised if Ukraine gets ATACMS missiles for their HIMARS - something which would make it impossible to make large supply concentrations 300km near the frontline. It would nearly become hopeless to make any organized resistence when your logistical system is in such ruins.
To me it seems more likely that Russia runs out of artillery fire first. There are many signs that Russia is running low on ammunition. The Wagner group complains about the lack of ammunition. Old T-55 tanks are put into service as artillery pieces - and perhaps because Russia is running low on ammunition of other calibres so they resort to using 100mm tank guns instead of 152mm and 122mm Howitzers.
And lastly do russia convert anti-ship missiles and air-defence missiles into attacking ground targets instead - and that makes me suspect that Russia is running low on ground attack missiles. Because why else would they convert an expensive missile and waste it in that way on a job that its not even designed to do?
If Russia had a plenty of cruise missiles for attacking land based targets, then why aren't it using those instead?
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