Comments by "Nattygsbord" (@nattygsbord) on "How the war can destabilize Russia" video.

  1. My feeling is that we will just see more of the same for the nearby future. Ukraine does not have enough western weapons and military muscles to launch their big offensive. Russia have exhausted the extra resources their last mobilization gave, and low quality troops are not suitable for offensive operations so russia will not be able to capture much land either... and the falling number of dead soldiers per day indicate that russia is calming down with its meat wave attacks. And an extra wave of mobilization will of course strain russias ability to equip a new army even more, but perhaps China can provide some small arms and ammo. Russias strategy will continue. Nuclear war threats against the west to intimidate weapon shipments. And Putin will try to steer up trouble in as many places as possible in the world, so the west will have to focus their eyes on other places in the world and divert less attention to helping Ukraine win the war. And Russian propaganda will continue to spam its self-contradictory nonsense. Right now do I think that the air war will come into attention. Ukraine is running low on Soviet long range air defence missiles. And unless something is done, will Russia be able to fly over Ukraine undisturbed at higher altitudes. Russian planes can harass Ukrainian troop concentrations behind the frontline and destroy their supply lines, and they can gain quicker notice about the plans of the Ukrainian army as recon planes can spot the ground. And Russia would not hestitate doing strategic terror bombing of Ukrainian cities if their track record in Ukraine the last year remains true. The situation is dire. Western SAM systems are too few to help Ukraine, and the western powers does not even have enough for their own needs. And I don't think Taiwan or Saudiarabia could spare any from their own needs either. And giving a bunch of F16 fighters to Ukraine that are only able to use 2 air fields in Ukraine will be vulnerable to Russian air attacks. And providing those airbases with air defence will not help to defend against hypersonic missiles. So the only thing that can save Ukraine now seems to be Gripen. But that is of course a tough nut to crack how those could be sent. Sweden would probably need air protection from USA to compensate for the loss of one or two dozen Gripens to Ukraine. And getting UK and France to agree to meteor missiles shipped to Ukraine would be complicated as well.
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  2. I hope he gets long life with constant pain that scores 10 on the NRS scale
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  3. Fact is that a vote by a disengaged voter is counted equally to a vote from a very engaged voter. The people who voted from Trump were strongly attached to him, but still did Biden win despite no one felt any entusiasm in voting for him. Putins political support rests on last time voters, elderly people who feel nostalgic about the USSR and entusiastic of a war that they themselves doesn't have to fight. This selfish garbage generation are one issue voters: high pensions is the only political issue that matters to them. Everything else is irrelevant to them. If Putin fails on everything else does not matter to them as long as he gives them pensions. And likewise can he be the greatest president ever, but if he then lowers pensions none of his achievements matter anymore - he will get voted out. And the next year is a Russian election year.
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  4. A dictator does not need the support from at least 50% of the population to remain in power. You can be an arab dictator and only say 20-25% of the people support you, while say 50% are neutral or apathic towards your rule. Your enemies could even be more numerous than your supporters, but even if say 30% of the population hates you will they still be a minority. The overall population of your supporters and your passive obedient followers and cowardly sheep will follow the will of your brutal regime just so themselves do not get into trouble... and togheter will those people make up say 70-75% of the population and enable you to opress the 30% of your population that makes up your opposition. I guess tha most dictatorships are like this. So once this neutral obedient worthless blod lose faith in the system and no longer blindly obey authority, then can the regime collapse very quickly - like what happened to Gaddafi.
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  5. I guess the next step would be to divide and conquer the opposition, and to find some other scapegoat to blame for all problems instead of Putin, Medvedev, Lavrov, Shoigu and Gerasimov
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  6.  @arnoldvezbon6131  You are correct. His comment is totally wrong, because it is a great understatement!
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  7.  @arnoldvezbon6131  Without Russia helping Germany attacking Poland there would never have been any world war 2 and a holocaust of all jews in Europe. So we can thank Russia for destroying Europe. The Molotov Ribbentrop pact, and the wars of aggression against Finland and the Baltics and decades of dictatorship and opression of Eastern Europe is the only gift Soviet Russia has given Europe. You can start thanking USA for saving your ass in world war 2.
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  8. Easily manipulated for sure. They begin to hate Ukrainians for no reason from one day to another, because state media told them so. And they have taken less than a 0.00000000001 microgram of effort of critical thinking to discern if this enormously ridiculous claim is true. With a population as gullible as this I would love to settle in Russia, because I got a bridge to sell.
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  9. Russia love nazis. Ever heard about the Rusich Group? Or the Wagner group and its founder Dmitry Utkin with his body covered in nazi symbols? And meanwhile do you complain on a country with a jewish president. The irony 🙄
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  10. The East Bloc collapsed and the Cold war ended with people in Germany took to the streets and protested and the Berlin wall was torn down. And all regimes are weak and have to bow to the people. Hitler was very scared that the German people would rise up against his war, like the German people had protested against world war 1 in 1918. So he always listened to public opinion and tried to avoid a total mobilization for war of German society for as long as he could. Only in early 1943 was Germany mobilized for total war... and that was like 3 years after Britain, a year after USA, and one and a half year after Russia. So it was too little, too late to win the industrial war against the allies. And even if his brutal regime was capable of killing approximatly 12 million people in the holocaust, was this regime still pathetically powerless when it feared a backlash from public opinion. The protests at Rosenstrasse was a battle that protesters won against Hitlers regime that wanted to take away all jewish husbands from women in Berlin and deport them to Auschwitz to be gassed to death. So had the German people only protested more, its possible that the holocaust would never have happened. And also Communist China today are fearful of public protests. It had to bow down and abandon its zero-covid policy with its brutal consequences for ordinary people out of fear of backlash from protestors. And this protest was anti-Covid restrictiosn, but it also started to become anti-regime protests, and pro-democracy protests... and this scary development could not be crushed by brutal force alone. So the Chinese government quickly scrapped all Covid measures over a night, and Covid began to spread like a wildfire in China among a population which previously been totally unexposed to the disease and lacked the natural immunity which could be seen in other countries such as Sweden. And the result became an over-burdened healthcare system as hundreds of thousands catched Covid, and the shocks to the Chinese economy became severe. This was not what the Commie dictatorship regime had wished for, but this is what they got. And all this shows that public opinion matters. But then of course you need to break a threshold and have much willingness to fight among the population and a large part of the population must be against the regime. It didn't help that tens of millions of people protested against the Iraq war in 2003. Preferbly do I also think it helps if the population is armed, so that the police is fearful of using force to break up a protest. Or even fearful of trying to break up a protest peacefully.
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  11. You lost the cold war in 1989. Its time to get over it and move on Ivan. And besides that empire were not that great either. It was built on mass murder and opression and is therefore nothing to be proud of. Russia should feel ashamed over the USSR the same way as the Germans feel unproud of the 3rd reich.
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  12. Russia is spending a third of its state income on this war. Which is not much. I don't know how large the Russian state is, but say its 50% of the countrys GDP. And then means that about 1/6 of the country's GDP goes into fighting this war. And I don't think that is much... I mean some of the great powers spent 80% of their GDP fighting in World War 2. So if Russia wanted to, it could do much more to mobilize its resources for this war. The limiting factor is rather how much sacrifices the Russian people are willing to go through to conquer some grey ruins that two years ago were small Ukrainian towns. Obviously do people have a very strange view on logic and seems to think that this war is still much very worthwhile despite losing 180.000 men and getting another 360.000 or so coming home with wounds from bullets and shrapnel plus mental scars. For me as a western person I just feel staggered by the gigantic russian stupidity. However what I think is irrelevant. I think it would be a mistake to project my own thoughts and feelings on my Russian opponents. Their mindset is so clearly different from my own. Anyone who havn't got a mental capacity of a child should realize that all talks about Ukraine as ruled by neonazis and biolabs are just nonsense. And everyone with half a braincell would realize that enormous amounts of contradictions in Kremlins propaganda. But obviously are there lots of stupid people in the east that has fallen for this crap. A rational mind would think that no one would still want this war. Not Ukraine. Not the west. Not even Russia. Indeed not even Putin would want this war, but he cannot end it without losing power and perhaps also his own life... But still is this stupid war going on. And the russian people are fine with it as long as it does not harm themselves. They are okay with genocide and wars of aggression. And threatening other countries and half the world that you would nuke them is just a normal thing one do each sunday in their mind 🙄 So this war could go on for years before the russian people are forced to stopped at being so lazy in their thinking. It seems like they are only able to learn things the hard way. Well so be it.
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  13. Putin might still wanna continue the war just to stay in power, and meanwhile do he hope that the west somehow lose interest in this war and force Ukraine to make peace on Russian terms. The ultranationalists wants Russia to win this war. But Russia can only win with weapons they don't have and trained troops they don't have and ammunition supplies they do not possess. Russias best tanks has been destroyed, and same goes with much of their SPGs, APCs, and artillery pieces. Their professional army have to a large degree been destroyed. And their 152mm artillery shells are consumed at a higher rate than they are being produced. So what would Russia gain from a next wave of mobilization? -Probably not much. I mean the last wave of mobilization gave us poorly trained and badly motivated civilians that only got a half-assed military kit consisting of a rusty AK47 or a WW2 rifle, and the men had to buy their own sleeping bags and tampoons to stop bleeding from bullet wounds. 😂 They wear WW2 steel helmets instead of kevlar helmets, and they lacks both night vision and bullet proof vests. And their marching boots are so bad that russian soldiers prefer to steal Ukrainian military boots, It is also common that they have to use their own sneakers instead of the military boots... which might not actually be a bad idea if you fight in Afghanistan and do not wanna make lots of noise for every step on the ground that you take... but I wonder how fun they are to have in cold, muddy Ukraine when you are walking in city rubble with broken glass and rusty iron nails on the ground. And the Russian Gorka and digiflora uniforms have I heard that they are pretty uncomfy to wear as you cannot for example stretch up your arms fully in those tight uniforms... And add to that all the corruption and the lack of C-rations that have not had its date expired. Russian troops are forced to eat rotten food or wasting time plundering stores. Well to sum up. If the last mobilization gave Russia this junk quality infantry + T54 and T55 tanks. Then I don't think the next wave of mobilization will be any good either. As the stocks of weapons runs out might they be forced to lower their standards even more and give even crappier equipment to their troops. The ultranationalists will have to realize that even a 5 and a 6th and 7th wave of mobilization will not solve the problem. What should they do next when they don't even have uniforms and WW2 rifles and AK47 left for everyone? Let people attack with hunting rifles, WW2 uniforms and T-34 tanks? All to conquer the provinces Donetsk and Luhansk which are just depopulated ruins at this point of time.
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  14. Putain happily continues a war he have started even after 180.000 russian troops are dead. And the 2nd chechen war was mostly started with a false flag attack where the russian secret service blow up a russian apartment building to create outrage that could justify another chechen war. So if Putin is willing to kill so many of his own countrymen, then I don't think that killing protesters is a hard thing for him. He have happily poisoned and murdered political opponents before. And he would likely have less respect for a peasant than an oligarch
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  15. "If the head is stupid, then the body will suffer" as a proverb says
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  16. The bald botox dwarf in Russia is saying Russia is winning as it retreats from Kyiv, from Sumy, from Charkiv, from snake Island, from the black sea, and from Khersun. Russians think they are winning. And yet have their winter offensive that lasts until now only managed to conquer a land plot so small that you need to look at a map through a microscope to see it. The price Russia has paid for this land has been huge. Most other countries would be unable to continue fighting on suffering such humiliating and catastrophic losses.
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