Comments by "Nattygsbord" (@nattygsbord) on "Russia still hopes for a quick victory" video.

I think the continuation war between Finland and Russia in the summer of 1944 is even more impressive by the Finns. Russia was a great industrial power that was pumping out thousands of IS-2 tanks, 152mm artillery pieces and military planes. Finland on the other hand was the poorest country in Europe and its army lacked everything except uniform buttons . Its industry was non-existent. And even with Swedish help and captured Soviet equipment did their military lack heavy artillery, and it extremely few aircrafts (and most of them were old and outdated) and they had almost no tanks, aside from a handful of StugIII and some captured Soviet junk that was little more than soapbox cars with a machine gun. By 1944 was all captured T-26 tanks and BT-7 hopelessly obsolete if they were to face thousands of T-34/85 and IS2 tanks Russia had put along the border. The Finns still inflicted gigantic losses on the Russians. But the artillery fire, air bombs and big tanks proved too much even for the brave and skilled finns. The situation was desperate. Hitler thought that he could not afford another diplomatic blow by losing another member of the axis so he did decide to help the finns quickly. JU87 stuka bombers, StuGIII and thousands of panzerfausts and panzershrecks were sent. And Russian tank losses quickly went sky high. The Finns had no armor of their own, but they were good at using their forests to hide and surprise the russian tanks and using the terrain for taking cover. And the russian military was incompetent and it often got drunk. So its attacks were not that effective despite gigantic numerical superiority and enormous amounts of heavy weapons. The climax of the campaign happened when the russians advanved through a narrow corridor. They did not know that the finns had prepared a big surprise for them. Every artillery piece in the finnish army had been massed around the area. And calculations had been made so all the hundreds of guns would fire in an order so that all shells landed at extactly the same moment to reach maximum surprise. A finnish officer told a Swedish soldier: "come and see here"... and he handed over some oculars to him and pointed in a certain direction to show him where to look. And then he said: "Now you will see how you will cause much harm and pain". And a gigantic thunder came. And in the glass he saw things being thrown up into the air... trees, soldiers, horses tanks, trucks everything was randomly thrown around in a gigantic pile of smoke. Probably many thousands of russians died that moment. And their last push to break through the finnish defences had been crushed. In the long run did Finland realize that they could not win, so they started to negotiate peace with Stalin. And Stalin was very eager to make peace with the finns. The country did not have much to offer Stalin if it were conquered. And its military was good, so it would be good if Stalin could get that army out of the war as quickly as possible so he could focus on the Germans instead. He had learned to respect the finns. And he feared that a war with them would cost him too many losses that he could not afford. The German army was still strong and Operation Bagration which destroyed 100 German divisions had still not yet happened, so the outcome on the eastern front was far from certain. And Stalin was a 100 times more afraid of Germany than of the finns. So making peace with the Finns was a no brainer from Stalins point of view. Stalin quickly agreed to a peace with Finland so he could take his massive army and throw it towards the Germans. So ironically did Hitlers panzerfausts to Finland probably do more to keep Finland out of the war, than in it. Without his help would Finlands defensive lines probably been broken, and the Russians would have pushed through and would probably tried to follow through on their success and try to conquer the entire country as a result. So one can feel a bit pity for the Germans for how ungrateful they were treated. Stalin also demanded in his peace terms that all German troops on Finlands territory must be kicked out. So the Germans had to flee the country, and those who didn't were fired at by the finns. Stalin now finally feel some relief for Leningrad, and he could not unleash gigantic forces towards the Germans instead. Once again had the Russian army proven itself to be large and mighty, but also utterly incompetent and careless in how it wasted thousands of men and equipment.
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Considering how incompetent this war has been handled by Russia I do not consider it unlikely that they do not even have any thought out plan at this point. The war have slipped out of their hands and went out of their control. This was supposed to be a 3 day war. I think you give the Russian leadership too much credit. You assume that they have a brain and act rationally and not like complete idiots. Personally do I more and more think that they are complete idiots. Their best equipment and troops are gone. And now they have to improvise with unconventional ways of winning this war. Terror bombings is one such desperate attempt. And it is nothing more than that. The Putin regime got nothing to lose by firing all their stockpiles. If they lose the war, then Putins political career is over anyways. So the only way he can save himself is to gamble and hope that he wins this war so that he can remain in power and save himself from getting killed. And they know that Nato - unlike themselves - are too civilized to start a war. With this in mind do Putin even dare to move troops away from the strategically super-important Kaliningrad and use those troops for the fighting in Ukraine. And this in a point of time while their army have already suffered catastrophic losses of contractor soldiers and T-80 and T-90 tanks. Had Russia believed that their neighbours might wanted to start a war with them - as their propaganda says - then I think that the timing of moving their Kalingrad troops to Ukraine could not be more terribly choosen. Leaving such an important strategic hub unprotected shows that the russians are lying to their teeths. They know the west doesn't want any war. And nor are they afraid of any escalation. So Russia therefore gambles everything on one card now and try to win this war. They throw in everything they got. They use up everything and do not think about tomorrow. Everything from t-62 tanks, rusty AK47s and world war 2 rifles to troops from Kaliningrad to members of Russias space forces. All their missiles are being spent as well as their old ammunition stocks. To me this strategy seems terrible for Russia. They are making a stupid short term decision without thinking about the long term consequences. Its like pissing your pants. If feels warm and cozy at first. But a few minutes later it feels uncomfortable, cold, wet, dirty and smelly to wear some pants covered in urine. I guess Russia will suffer more military defeats, and have to repeat their boring predictable nuclear threats like a broken record despite people in the west no longer believes in his nonsense. Fear and respect for him has been exchanged for contempt. People in the west look at the Russian military as incompetent. And the respect for their point of view have been hollowed out by their endless lies and barbarism and war crimes. It might just as well be that soon will people in the west look at Russia like it was a turd. And think that it needs to be flushed away, so people can solve this problem and keep on going with their normal lives again.
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@andrzejbarcelonafrlk6416 As I sees it do the Russians put a strong hope on a miracle to save them. Their silly idea to cling on to Khersun for an extra few months were done only because they hoped that the Republicans would win the mid-term elections in the USA. And had pro-Russian republicans won the election, then this war could have strongly leaned in favor of Russia after that event. Fracturing the EU and Nato is also hig on Russias wishlist. But of course do men in desperate situations often resort to wishful thinking. Even in 1945 did Hitler cling on to the hope- The hope that Roosevelts death would somehow break up the enemy alliance and make USA join his war against the commies. The likelyhood of such happening is not that big. And if Putin was a rational man who truely loved Russia, the he would realize the hopeless situation and give up. But now he is depleting Russias population, economy and military. Which just shows that he puts himself before Russia
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I think that the EU + USA should have a talk with Zelensky and say that Ukraine can offer lifted sanction to Russia as a carrot in exchange for reasonable peace terms. That would probably strongly improve Ukraines position of negotiating peace. And it would offer some unity and coordination in dealing with Russia. Sanctions will punish Russia if the refuse to give Zelensky reasonable peace terms. And it will be a reward and a carrot to Russia to do the right thing. If Russia gives back all stolen land, free all kidnapped Ukrainians, hand over their worst war criminals and agree to some war reparations then will a new humiliated post-Putin regime at least be able to show some benefits from a peace deal. The stranglehold on the Russian economy will be lifted and give russians some hope of a better future... altough that journey will be a very long walk.
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Ukraine is probably not prepared to get victory at any cost. Many good Ukrainian men have died. Who knows how many? At some point is enough enough, but I think this war will end sooner. Perhaps instead because Russia gives up. I think it is becoming less likely that the west will give up so easy now. The west have invested so much in Ukraine now, that money will be wasted if Ukraine is allowed to die. So the west will be forced to continue to ship aid to Ukraine until they can get an acceptable peace. There is also now a risk that EU falls apart if Putin is able to divide the EU enough. I believe many EU leaders see that risk and therefore tries to get through compromises that everyone can live with, altough they might feel very distasteful for many countries.
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"I think that Putin was probably even more surprised than the rest of the world when he realized that he (and Russia) is at war with the Ukraine." I think he is as surprised as Hitler was in 1939 when he invaded Poland and didn't expect that other countries would suddenly jump into the war and start helping the country that he just invaded. Hitler had invaded the Rhineland, Austria, Sudetenland, and Czechia without any military resistence from the west. And likewise was west doing nothing when Putin started wars in Chechenya, Georgia, Dagestan, and Crimea.. so he thought that invading Ukraine would be easy. Ukraine would be demoralized with the lack of western support and quickly give up, even if it would fight bravely the first few days Putin thought. And regardless would the west be able to do too little too late to save Ukraine. And Germany would remain passive as Russia have a knife pressed against its throat with the gas weapon which could kill the German economy. So Putin did certainly not expect that taking Ukraine would be this hard. The war has become a nightmare for him. And when it comes to Russian propaganda do I think many Russians have fallen victim for it. Putin himself is on one hand considering the west as weak, decadent, lazy, materialistic, dumb, and overly interested in comfort so beating them in a war would be easy for the more practical minded Russians that are used to hardships. But then do Putin fall victim to doublethink. One time do he feel contempt for the west as see it as weak. And in the next moment he feels great fear from it. He is paranoid and thinks that the USA is out after him. He constantly fears being poisoned. He sits at long tables because he is afraid of sitting close to someone who might be sick and have Covid or some other disease. He is a coward hiding in his bunker the entire war. He was even so afraid of an western air raid that he did not allow any military planes to fly on his victory day parade on May 9th, as he wanted his military planes to be ready to protect the skies over Moscow from a sudden attack instead. Things are getting silly 🙄 And what George Orwell called "doublethink" is really what is typical of Putins Russia. And of Russian propaganda in particular. It is filled with constant contradictions towards its own talking points. First they say there is no war in Ukraine, and in the next moment they accuse the west of a proxy war. First they always say they are winning in Ukraine, and in the next moment they mobilize the reserves. The laugh at USA and say its military is worthless and just leave equipment behind and flee from Afghanistan and say that USA and the west have the most worthless military in the world. And in the next moment they say that Russia is only losing in Ukraine because it is not just fighting Ukraine, but they are also fighting Nato 🙄 Russia is in that regard the first post-modern state in history. It doesn't care about truth. It holds no values. In the propaganda does Russia try to appeal to everyone and not just a few. To the leftist they say that they are the inheritors of the Soviet heritage and that they are a counterpart to USAs imperialism and capitalism. To the rightwingers do they say that Russia is a bastion against progressivism and a defender of christian family values. To the westerners they pretend to be an European modern country and an attractive large market. While to the Africans they say that they are the fighter against the west and their imperialism and the defender of the 3rd world. The Russians are prepared to lie about anything. They lie if they think if that it is going to suit them. And telling the truth is of course illegal in Russia. Calling the conflict in Ukraine for a war will get you into jail. Criticising the military will also give you severe sentences. Indeed, I have even heard that such a small thing as saying that the T-34 tank had many serious construction flaws is a criminal offence in Russia. And with such a lack of diversity of opinions and lack of critical discussions - then of course you do get a stupid ignorant population. And maybe one can say that Putin is one such idiot that that the Soviet education system have produced. He is either completly ignorant of Ukraines history as an independent country. Or he is lying. Or he is both lying and being ignorant. And with such a fool in power, it is perhaps not a surprise that Russia makes bad decisions. And the country have never dealt with its dark Stalinist past the same way as the Germans have dealt with their Hitler
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@LarsPallesen Swedens biggest defence blogger Cornucopia (aka Lars Wilderäng) seems to support your analysis. He argues that the high Russian losses of manpower and low losses of artillery suggest that Ukraine is beating back stupid suicidal frontal attacks with newly mobilized troops. But Ukraine does not bother doing much effort in counter-battery artillery fire because it is building up artillery shell stockpiles and building up concentration of forces for a major future offensive.
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There is a difference between military muscles and the *willingness to fight a war*. Putin knows that Russia's muscles are hopelessly inadequate to take on Nato. So all of his hope is that the west lose the willingness to support Ukraine. And once that happens, will Ukraine be an easy prey for the huge Russian military. The best way to end this war would therefore be to crush all Putins hope that he could somehow win this war by a stronger willingness to fight this war than the west. And the west could do this by give Ukraine larger shipments of weapons, more ammunition and a strong promise of future support with guarantees. And once Putin know that he cannot win this war, then Russia will end it, as there is no point in losing money and lives for a lost cause.
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But Jens Stoltenberg are openly speaking about supporting Ukraine. And the member countries are cooperating in supporting Ukraine. And that so much military equipment travels to Ukraine over Poland is a sign of a large level of cooperation. And Turkey that normally refuses foreign warships to pass the bosporus have made exceptions for warships from Nato countries - such as Spain that carried military equipment to Ukraine.
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As much as he dares to use. The limiting factor is how much pain the Russian people or the political opposition can endure, or how much that he suspect that they can endure before they revolt or try to kill him. With that obstacle out of the way, I don't think Putin will hesitate to use every available resource at his disposal to win this war. If he lose this war, then it will mean the end of Putin. And it is hard to find a greater motivating factor than that. Its victory or death for Putin. He cannot afford to lose this war. He need some kind of win. At least a small one so he can save face. But personally I think that it is too late for that. And I don't think the west should try to save this mini-Hitler from going down. He got no one else to blame for this mess that he created for himself. I do not feel sorry for him. He already had enough chances. And the idiot was offer generous peace terms earlier this year. Indeed, he was offered way too generous peace terms. But even that was not good enough for him. And his greed became his downfall. And when the doves failed, did the hawks in the west take over and started to pump in weapons into Ukraine, and Russia then started to lose the war. And now Putin is stuck in a war that he is about to lose. He have painted himself into a corner. He have shot himself in the foot. He have burned all bridges. The idiot have screwed up royally beyond the point of all return. Macron's proposal to throw out a lifebuoy to save Putin is just insane. If was on a ship and an axeman was swinging his axe and tried to kill you and then accidentally fell into the water. Would you try to pick this guy up when you know that he would be more likely to try to kill you again rather than being grateful for you saved his life? I would leave this guy to freeze and drown in the water. It would be his own fault for putting himself into this situation when he was chasing around people and tried to kill them. And I do not owe him anything. Indeed, I think the world be a better place without people like him. And that is my view of Putin as well.
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Some people say this war will be determined by a black swan event - like if Germany throws in the towel from high energy prices and stops helping Ukraine and say it needs to talk peace with the Russians even if it means a loss of land, another possible ending of the war could be if the military takes over the power in Russia and get rid of Putin. It is possible that Putin doesn't know how to win this war anymore and just let time ticking away and hope that a miracle will show up and somehow save his country from a military defeat, like "the miracle of the house of Brandenburg" saved Frederick the Great's Prussia to being wiped out from history.
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@eveningstarnm3107 Brainwashed apes would fall for lies on Russian propaganda tv, which says that everything is the fault of the west. Because without western help would Ukraine not have top modern super-duper weapons and being able to field 300 million men at the frontline. So its only the wests fault that their sons are dead. Russia is just fighting a defensive war against evil expanding Nato and protecting the russian speaking minority in Ukraine... blah blah.
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So far has Russia acted unimpressive with its non-coherent way of war. It started the war as liberators and tried to avoid casualties among the civilian population, while today they are making terror bombings and threw people into mass graves. Putin did try to avoid mobilizing his reserves as long as he could, but once he took that decision it was too late... all his training units had already been thrown into Ukraine before and much of them have been wiped out, so now he cannot cast his civilian manpower into becoming raw military recruits. He have constantly been changing military objectives throughout this war... Kyiv and Odessa - which proved overly ambitious. Likewise did snake island have to be abandoned. He did then concentrate his forces to Mariupol - which they took and won a propaganda victory. The city itself and the steel mill have however been totally destroyed. Putin did then try to make a pincher movement in the east - which failed. He also tried to cut off Ukraine from the black sea to starve out its economy - which failed, and instead did he have to accept the grain deal. He have also flip-flopped with his relationship to the west. He wanted lifted sanctions. But later on did he blow up the North Stream pipeline and acted like a sore loser once he realized that it would not be easy normalize the relations with certain western countries again after this war. His propaganda is chaotic and filled endless numbers of contraditions... is this a war or not? why mobilize 300.000 men if the limited special military operation is going according to plan? And now do Russia seem to have lost the military momentum, and is forced into a defensive posture. And meanwhile do they make terror bombings. And mountains of flesh is wasted on taking Bakhmut each day. And aside from that are they digging in along the Wagner line and hide behind the Dniepr. Their military might need to gain training for their recruits, gain equipment, and fix the Crimean bridge before they can retake what they have lost. But going on the attack without tanks and experienced troops will be very costly at best. But it seems stupid enough for Putin to wanna try it anyways 🙄
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