Comments by "Nattygsbord" (@nattygsbord) on "Russia’s David vs Ukraine’s Goliath? Manpower woes explained." video.

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  13. Russia started this war with a numerical advantage and with help from Belarus. However losses have been significant and the mobilization is putting more Ukrainians in the field. Logistical issues and mud have prevented Russia from capitalize on its advantage of professional troops and material superiority. Ukraines surprisingly determined defence and its skillful professionalism in ambushes and Ranger warfare behind enemy lines attacking supply trucks have also been significant. Western anti-tank missiles and the failed Russian air superioty are also significant game changers. Russian numerical superiority or not will I say that a long war will be a tough campaign for Russia. 100-200k extra conscripts will not replace the loss of professional soldiers. Crappy unupgraded Russian tanks cannot replace the 370 or 600 or so tanks lost which were upgraded and the best Russia had. Conquered equipment have further contributed so change of balance of power here. I think Russia can accept more losses, and Putin wants to save face and his own career. So losing the war is unacceptable to him. The problem however is that more Russian tanks and men thrown into battle will likely not solve anything. Its one thing to mobilize a new army, and its another thing to equip it. And if logistics and maintance was terrible in the army he sent into Ukraine in the end of february - then wait until you see the underequipped demotivated conscript junk army he have called in to replace it. And if logistics was a problem for the old army, then adding the problems with an additional new army and even crappier equipment will only make bad things worse. Ukrainians are more determined to fight than ever. Emboldened by their success and their hatred of Russian warcrimes will make surrender unthinkable to them. And as I said earlier, green forests will create more hideouts for Ukrainian Rangers and special forces to cause devestation behind enemy lines. And the further back behind enemy lines - the less counter fire from the Russians will there be. And if Ukrainian propaganda is true that much long range SAMs have been stolen from the Russians then I think odds have become even more even in the material sense. Sanctions on Russia have made reparing damaged vehicles impossible and harm Russias economic ability to fight a long war as well as creating problems at maintaining public support for the war. In itself this is perhaps much of a problem, but if Russia continues to humiliate itself, suffer heavy losses and got no major successes to show for it - then Putin will have reason to fear the survival of his regime. It remains to be seen how far the west is willing to go to defend Ukraine. Sending MLRS from Britain is probably the furthest step I know of so far. However cutting off trade with oil and gas completly is not a step EU or Russia seems likely to wanna take as it would likely mean mutually assured destruction of each others economy. Think of the oil price shock of 1973 hitting Europe again. With massive inflation, unemployment, falling GDP and global economic economic crash that will follow. Inflation goes up and so does interest rates and unemployment. Overindebted households cannot pay their debts and lose their homes. Higher interest rates also means less money over for consumption, which means less sales for companies, lower profits and companies are forced to fire workers. Stupid Germany have painted itself into a corner, and it will take at least 10-15 years before Germany and Italy get rid of their energy independence on Russia.
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