Comments by "Nattygsbord" (@nattygsbord) on "Kanal13"
channel.
-
21
-
17
-
I don't know the exact numbers, but I think I somewhere heard that Russia put 2500 tanks into Ukraine, while Ukraine started this war with 800 tanks. Russian losses have been heavy. Indeed much heavier than Ukraines despite having better tanks.
Ukraines losses have been smaller, and they have been able to compensate much of it by taking over some Russian tanks and put them into use against Russia. However, even if the losses are smaller does it not mean that the situation has improved. Ukraine started the war with much less tanks so every lost tank is felt. Russia on the other hand started this war with a few thousand tanks in storage... most of them old and in bad condition, but still..
Giving Ukraine 200 modern western tanks (M1 Abrams, Leopard2, Challanger2, Leclerk) and say 200 lighter tanks (AMX-10 RC, Leopard1) will not give Ukraine more tanks than Russia. But then of course are the Russian military made up by idiots, so the combat power of this Ukrainian force is multiplied by many factors.
First of all are the western tanks better built and less old than the Russian tanks. They also have trained crews while the Russians use mobikis with less training. Ukraine is training combined arms warfare, while that concept is not understood in Russia. And those tanks will be assisted by other modern superior western weapons such as Archer, Panzerhaubitze 2000, and Caesar...and modern infantry fighting vehicles such as CV90 and Bradley which makes Russian BMP-1 and BMP-2
looklike grandpas old garbage by comparison.
This is a powerful force addition to the Ukrainian army. If I was a Russian general having to take counter-measures against an Ukrainian offensive I would be very concerned as the old Soviet tanks are no match the modern western tanks. And even the old partially outdated old Leopard1 is still superior to the old T-54, T-55 and T-62 junk fielded by the Russian military.
However this force in itself is far from enough to guarantee an Ukrainian victory. 200 modern and somewhat modern western tanks vs 2000 Russian tanks + 300.000 men...... I think the numbers speaks for itself that the west are sending too little to Ukraine to help them win this war fast
7
-
5
-
5
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
3
-
2
-
This war is not like the American Civil War. Both there are a few similiarities. The problem for the North was that its biggest force - the Potomac army - was unlucky and did get bad leaders for most of the war: Irwin McDowell, George B. McClellan,
Ambrose Burnside and Joseph Hooker. One incompetent leader replaced another and the north could not get anything done despite this army had such a large number that the south had nothing to put against it.
The South was not any professional force either, and it did not have any military geniouses. Albert Sidney Johnston was probably the best commander they had, but he died already in 1862. Souths strategy should have been a defensive war where the long distances and strained logistics easily could have over-extended the northern armies and made them vulnerable to raids against their rear and supply train, and the forested terrain would have offered oppurtunities for ambushes that would have inflicted high losses on the north and few for the south.
But fighting such a low-intensive war was unpopular and not in the taste of any southern General aside from the realistic Albert who realized that this was the only way that the south could win. Glorious offensive dashes on northern territory was just foolish and dangerous. The stakes were high and the south lost its army that way. It could not replace its losses while the north could.
Ukraine however have not been fools like the Confederates. The Russian thrusts went deep into Ukraine. But Russian tanks quickly ran out of fuel, and in the forests behind enemy lines did Ukrainian troops jump out and destroyed russian military trucks carrying fuel and ammunition. And without those things did Russian tanks become worthless and the crews have to abandon them - so they later on could be towed away by Ukrainian tractors.
Stupid frontal attacks, tanks and infantry that did not support each other, Generals who were killed by enemy fire and all kinds of other problems drained russian resources and soon it become unrealistic and unsubstainable to try to take over the entire country. So Russia lowered its ambitions for this war, and now instead hoped to take over a few provinces instead of trying to take over the entire country.
And now is Russia even unable to achieve that goal.
Russia is also making a copy of the extremely stupid Confederate war economy. The south decided to burn up all cotton so that Europe would run out of cotton - and the souther hoped Europe would scream loud about the cotton shortage, and the death of British industry, so Britain would be forced to enter the war on the side of the South.
But that never happened.
Instead did destroying the cotton only make the south losing money, instead of gaining money from exporting it.
And likewise have russia lost money by its stupid blockade of Europe instead of trying to export as much as possible to it while it still could and thereby keeping some countries on the hook for russian energy. But now it only made Europes strive from independence from russia even easier and speeded up.
The south was also unwilling to transition to a war economy and raise war taxes - which led to loans and money printing, inflation and an underfunded military and a dissatisfied population and a harmed economy as a result. And Putin has been very reluctant to make the Russian people suffer because of his unpopular war. He raised war taxes but only half a year passed, and he waited with mobilization of the reserves for months - and it all proved to be too little too late.
Just like with the Souths war efforts.
The professional russian military has already been destroyed. The best russian tanks and best troops are now dead and destroyed. And the mobilized troops are thrown into battle without training because there has been too little left of the old army to train them. So the troops are a desperate attempt of winning the war by gathering badly equipped, badly trained troops that is not willing to fight.
Just like how the south tried to mobilize anyone at the end of the war to fight for them, and even black slaves were pushed into service. But all those efforts were too little too late. And the this stupid poorly planned economic mobilization for war harmed the economy. In Russias case have there been a brain drain, and highly educated young men that have costed russian tax payers large sums of money to educate are wasted and killed after only a few weeks of fighting in Ukraine.
And now is russia running out of resources because of the blockade - just like how the south suffered because of the naval blockade.
Russia can no longer mass produce tanks and more advanced weapons. Its monthly production of cruise missiles have become extremely tiny and almost insignificant. Its daily consumption of artillery shells is much larger than what russia produce so the country is quickly running out of shells.
And most of russias best tanks has been destroyed so it have to push old junk like T-62 and T-55 into service.
If Russia was in good shape and the 2nd largest military in the world, then it would not have to import weapons from 3rd world countries like Iran, Belarus and North Korea. Why would any country to import old rusty artillery shells from North Korea unless they are desperate? Why would Russia import tanks from Belarus unless they had a shortage of tanks?
"The United States is losing influence catastrophically by underestimating Russia. It doesn’t have the industrial capacity to provide artillery ammunition to Ukraine."
You are wrong. Read what I said in my text above. Russia does not have the industrial capactity to continue fighting this war. And meanwhile are Ukraine getting better and better weapons. And with 1 million artillery shells guaranteed by the EU is Ukraine not running out of artillery ammunition any time soon. And add to that they also get artillery ammunition from USA, Australia, South Korea, and Pakistan.
So nope. Ukraine will never run out of artillery ammunition.
The only side in this war that can run out of it is Russia. Russia is losing the war. And that will a disasterous loss for Russia.
People laugh at its military. Its economy is severly shaken by the braindrain, by the sanctions, by the war, and by its negative demographic trend.
The country is seen as a rogue state, as an evil rotten backhole. And its military needs decades before it can be rebuilt back to its prewar strength. It will be obvious to the world that russian military equipment is junk and does not stand a chance against western stuff, so russias arms exports and stance around the world will decline.
And USA and Nato will be unified more than ever and getting a huge prestige boost. Self-confidence is higher than ever.
Putin fanboys in the west will be despised and mocked, and lose their grip on power, so that the west can get rid of that toxic poison to our democracies and get healthy and strong again. The west will grow its military power again. And it will not get caught off guard like it was with Ukraine.
And Ukraines large natural resources will benifit Europe. The Russo-Chinese alliance have been weakened as Russia is being reduced to nothingness militarily as economically.
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
Ukraine have more than enough Javelins, NLAWs, Stugna-P, MILAN, MATADOR, Panzerfaust-3, RPG-7, AT-4, PV-1110, TOW, Brimstone, Carl-Gustaf, drones, anti-tank mines, tanks, 100mm T-12 anti-tank guns, and artillery with anti-tank ammunition (ie BONUS) and plus much else that can kill Russian tanks.
2
-
Ryssjävlarna ska bara lära sig sin plats och ge fan i att stjäla andras land och mörda oskyldiga. Det tycks som att de endast kan lära sig den hårda vägen, och att hundratusentals ryska män behöver dö först. Må så va då. De har bara sig själva att skylla för den idiotiska blodspilla de utsätter sitt eget land för. Polacker, Ukrainare, Georgier, Tjecker, Slovaker, Ungrare, Tyskar, Finnar, Estländare, Svenskar, Letter, Litauer... har all upplevt ryska massmord, våldtäkter, plundringar, kidnappningar, slaveri, förtryck, etnisk rensning, och försök till att utplåning av deras kultur när de levt under Rysk ockupation.
Så det är lika bra att man drar upp en hård gräns mot öster. Att skydda sin granne är att skydda sig själv.
Så länge Ryssland är en krigshetsande barbarisk ondskefull makt är ingen annan hållning möjlig gentemot dom.
Tycker synd om de 10% ryssar som ej stödjer Putin och hans dumma krig. Men de andra ryssarna är jag faktiskt bara glad över att de sprängs i luften av svenska vapen.
Tycker förövrigt att det är fint när andra länder hjälper Ukraina. Särskilt då länder som inte räknas bland världens 20 största ekonomier. Men naturligtvis är det fint även när ett stukat Storbritannien efter Brexit modigt stod ensamt och stödde Ukraina... lite som de modigt och stöddigt ensamt våga sätta sig upp mot Hitler och Napoleon. Att ha en stor ekonomi med kärnvapen bakom sig som Boris Johnsons England var viktigt 2022. Att Tyskland skänker vapen för att sätta stopp på ett folkmord och anfallskrig är ett viktigt steg för att tvätta Tysklands skadade rykte efter andra världskriget, och deras mäktiga bidrag hjälper Ukraina till seger.
Spanien är ett land på andra sidan Europa som ej egentligen har skäl att oroa sig över Rysslands anfallskrig. Landet är pacifistiskt sedan spanska inbördeskriget och landets ekonomi har väl egentligen inte helt återhämtat sig efter Eurokrisen och Corona pandemin. Men likväl har landet generöst bidragit till Ukraina med tanks, pansarvärn, sjukvårdsutrustning och annat.
Lilla slovenien och Albanien skickar tanks till Ukraina. Marocko skickar reservdelar till T-72 tanks. Sydkorea skickar uniformer. Sverige som ej varit i krig på över 200 år och har världsrekord i neutralitet skickar tanks, tungt artilleri, stridsfordon, pansarskott, sjömålsrobotar, matransoner, hjälmar, artilleri ammunition, och tränar Ukrainska män till att bli tuffa soldater.
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
2
-
1
-
They can probably use 30 years old shells, but the ones older than that are probably in a horrible shape due to bad storage - like with all other Russian military crap. The Wagner group have posted videos of shells so rusty that they did not dare to load their gun with them because they might explode and destroy the gun and kill the crew.
Many shells do however fly away towards the Ukrainians, and some of them fail to explode and some don't. But regardless will they exhaust the gun barrels on the howitzers for each shot fired. And wear and tear will make the inaccurate Russian howitzers even more inaccurate. And at some point will the gun barrels needs to be swapped out due to exhaustion. And if the Russians don't do that, then the gun might explode in Ivans face.
So I think there is a limit to how old shells you can use. And even if say Ivan had properly stored his ammunition correctly, that would still not prevent them from deteriorate as they get too old. They might not explode, the explosion might be weaker, or the ammunition could when it is not supposed to. And with untrained newly mobilized crews is there probably an increased risk of faulty handling and more accidents. And the Russian artillery fire is today extremely inaccurate because of bad guns, exhausted gun barrels, lack of counter-battery radars, lack of artillery observers, untrained crews, no drone correction of the artillery fire. And add to those ineffiencies the crappy logistical system and ammunition shortage
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1