Comments by "Nattygsbord" (@nattygsbord) on "The Armchair Historian"
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Russia won the war but at a great cost. Half their economy had been destroyed in the war. Cities had been turned into rubble. Villages had been burned. Bridges and factories had been blown up by retreating armies. Germany destroyed railway tracks as they retreated.
So you can say that the western half of Russia's economy had stopped existing because of the war. Now everything left of Russia's industrial base laid east of the zone that Germany had occupied. Particular in the Ural mountains did you have much factories - because as you perhaps already know, did Russia take down many of their factories and industrial plants and transported them by rail to the east so they would not fall into German hands.
So this changed the entire structure of the Soviet economy.
Now the industrial base had moved from west to east. Instead of small factories, did Russia put up all big factories in a few cities. And instead of making civilian products did those factories now specialize in making military equipment - rifles, tanks and such.
Now would all parts of the production process happen in one and the same town when all factories were concentrated into one place. You dug up the metals from the ground, you processed it into steel, then you turned that steel into tanks.
Every part of the production process now could be done in the same town. So you could say that the cities in the Ural turned into huge military towns.
The war changed Russia. The military industrial complex got a firmer grip of power in the country, because it represented a higher proportion of the economy than before. And it had won much status and prestige in the war.
And people were afraid of another world war would happen again, so Russians therefore wanted a strong military.
So Russia remained a militaristic society decades after the war.
But this led to the civilian economy to be neglected. And the standard of living did not improve. The war had destroyed much, and Russia had much money it had to spend on repair on reparing bridges and railroads so it did not have much money over to offer everyday luxuries that we take for granted in the west.
Stalin hoped that plundering east Germany and stealing all large amounts of industrial equipment in Silesia would help the Russian economy to flourish again. But this did not happen. And all he accomplished was to destroy Germany's industrial base.
Russia had won the war. Its military status was great after the victory over Germany. And Russia took control over eastern Europe. But its economy remained weak. It had outproduced Germany during the war despite being a poor country, and Germany occupied all of Europe. But in all other areas was the Russian economy weak.
And that is also the case today. The Russian economy today is mostly just strong in military equipment, avionics, nuclear power, space, and selling raw materials such as coal, natural gas, timber and metals. Half of Russia's GDP comes from oil production. So it is not a very diverse economy that is fragile because it depends too much on a few sectors - and particulary the price of oil.
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"every political factor and military engagement came to an advantage for one side"
France had better rifles and the battle of Gravelotte st.Private was fought against French numerical superiority. Strategically could France have just massed troops along the short Franco-German border and made it hard for German troops to win the war, as they would have been forced to fight a strong enemy with well prepared defensive positions.
Prussia did however have better tactics, better logistics, better overall prepardness for war - and of course von Moltke's genius.
"Sadly for the german history his sucessors Schlieffen and his nephew Moltke the younger did not want to realize this"
Schlieffens plan was a master work. Had not Austria failed so badly at the eastern front and forced Germany to move troops to the east to stop a Russian invasion - then would France have fallen and the war would have been over in 1914 with German easy win in the west. And there after would Russia have fallen in the east, and probably also before 1917.
The Schlieffen plan had to be improved in ways its father never originally intended, and it is surprising how well the plan did work despite its many changes. The schlieffen plan was created when the French army was much weaker. But then a few years before WW1 did France introduce 6 years conscription for all males and it grew its army.
This changed the power-balance so much that Germany had to put hundreds of thousands more men into the fight in France in order to win this fast victory in the west. But such a growth in size of the German invasion army did create new problems this plan was not really suited for.
You could only walk so many men over a bridge at once, over otherwise it will collapse.
A thin road will create ques and road blocs if you try to march too many men, horses and guns over it all at once...
So growing an army and maintaining the speed for a fast invasion of France was two things which did go against each other. Russia would also begin to mobilize its army faster than this plan anticipated - which meant that a German victory over France must happen even faster than planned, before Russia could field a large enough army to become a deadly threat to Germany.
All those factors made it seem nearly impossible for Germany to win in 1914.
But Germany nearly won the war in 1914 despite all those problems - and that says a lot about the high quality this plan originally had. Had this plans originals been badly made to begin with, I think it would have been very unlikely that a fast invasion of France and Belgium would have been possible. Paris would never be under threat, since French forces would have gotten more time to plan their counter-moves to stop the German offensives. Troops could get the time to dig in and put up barbed wire on every kilometer before the Germans came.
But that did not happen. Because Germany kept all the initiative in their hands on the west front battlefield in 1914.
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If Sweden had such a big army at Poltava it would probably have won the Northern war.
Charles only had about 40.000 men during his Russian campaign. Sweden is not a country like Russia that can sacrifice 200.000 men per year and still win a war at the end.
Charles army was the biggest and most well equiped - and trained army in Swedish history. But even with all efforts of absolutist monarch and a military state and the most effiecent buraucracy in Europe it would be able to field an army even half the size of other great powers like France, Austria, Russia or the Ottoman empire.
It is rather surprising how big and might the Swedish empire could become despite its limited resources (for example did Charles enemies did have 40 times more manpower than he did). And it nearly won at Poltava - and that could have perhaps have encouraged Ukrainian cossacks and Ottomans to join Charles in his war against Russia, while a big military defeat at Poltava could have created further dissatisfaction with Peter unpopular rule.
Peters western reforms was unpopular. And blodshed and war taxes would just encouraged revolts even further to de-throne Peter, and who knows what Russia then would looklike today?
None the less do I think that Swedens imperial glory would have been fading away even with a victory in the Great Northern war. Even with all conquered lands and huge Polish puppet state do I think that Sweden didn't have enough silver and blood to defend this huge empire that many wanted a piece of.
Prussia, and Austria was still powerful enemies. Russia and Denmark was not so serious threats in their own right, but these countries was by no means small compared to Sweden and were therefore threats that couldn't be ignored. They were latent enemies that would join military alliances with Swedens enemies and attack Sweden whenever they saw a weak monarch on the Swedish throne.
Nor did Sweden have much of an overseas empire besides a few plots of land in Africa, west indies and North America. And the GDP per capita was one of the lowest in western Europe. And the Swedish navy was not necessarily bad, but it was always out of luck and would never produce a single great maritime victory before the battle of Svensksund in 1790.
The only major strenghts of this empire was its good buraucracy, modern army and tactics, its mines (Russia and Sweden did togheter produce more than 90% of all iron in Europe) so Sweden had some military advantages thanks to its iron industry. And it had some diplomatic and propagandistic strengts too, as the home of Gustavus - the defender and saint of all protestant nations and the formidable Swedish army.
Sweden was a poor country. It never built any Versaille palaces like France, produced music like Vienna or was a commercial hub with Dutch paintings like Amsterdam. Sweden was a poor country made up of peasants, and the country was only good at two things: melting iron and making Cannons.
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Austria was good at producing waltz music and famous composers. But fighting wars was not one of its talents.
It had huge resources but still it failed to defeat Sweden in the 30 years war, and after the battle of Breitenfeld was all of modern day Germany lost to Swedish hands. The war dragged on, for some years thanks to help from Spain, some diplomacy and large economic wealth... but in the end did Austria lose the war anyways.
Austria also lost all 3 wars over Silesia with Frederick the Great. And it lost the war against Napoleon. And it lost against Prussia in 1866. And in WW1 it managed to wipe out over 60% of its 2 million men strong army in just 4 months. It could not even beat Serbia - a 3rd world country - despite numerical superiority, better weapons, and good access to fresh troops and logistics.
Just as with Habsburg Spain, was Habsburg Austria good at royal marriages diplomacy. So it too did create an empire with totally artificial borders, thanks to monarchs gaining land through marriages. So aside from royal blood was there very little that tied this empire together. And solidarity was never good between the different peoples and provinces.
The Hungarians were excellent horsemen and light infantry during the 1700's, but despite making up a third of the empire it only paid 10% of all taxes in the Kingdom. And its barbarian population was a very proud one, so of course did its soldiers not accept being led by German officers. The Italian provinces were rich highly culturally developed, and the same was true for Belgium. Croatia provided excellent steppe troops, but their discipline was awful and the line between criminal gangs of murders and plunderers and soldiers were non-existent as with the other light troops in the Austrian army.
And the Austrian army itself was very tiny, and the population in Tyrol was very unwarlike, but Austria could still get large army thanks to contributions of troops of all different German states within the Holy Roman empire. And this army was commanded by Austrian officers.
But as with the tax system, was there also nearly no standardization within the Austrian army on how units should be trained, equipped, the size of regiments and so on.
So just like Spain and France did this empire punch below its own weight, despite being a huge empire with millions of people.
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Most experts say that the Austro-Hungarian empire was a relic of the past and that it would have fallen apart sooner or later even if no war would have happened.
This empire was after all only bound together by the monarchy and a little bit by Catholicism. But both those things were a bit outdated by the early 1900's. This Habsburg empire had been built out of royal marriages, so that is why its borders looked so strange.
Many tiny pieces of land did also accept their Austrian overlords in the 1500s and 1600s only because they feared the muslim Ottomans otherwise would conquer them and take away all their independence.
But since the late 1600's had the Ottoman empire been stagnating and the threat and fear of an Ottoman invasion faded away.
So could the German minority keep this empire together? Probably not.
Some richer parts of the empire had no interest in sharing their wealth with other more primitive peoples. While other parts would be economically hurt by independence.
So perhaps a loose union between all ex-Austro-Hungrian states would have been possible.
Something like an EU only for Balkan states, where they could share economic costs for railway construction and military spending and a military pact of all countries to protect against Russia and the Ottomans.
At best could the Austro-Hungrian empire perhaps have hoped for becoming like the USA, where states like California, Texas, North Dakota, Carolina and so on could determine most matters by themselves, and letting the Federal government handle the printing of money and military expenditure.
But personally I think the most likely fate for Austria would have been a complete break up of the empire sooner or later anyways. The Austro-Hungrian empire was after all just a relic from the medieval feudal era.
Nationalism, democracy, liberalism, pan-slavism, and such forces was too strong for an old empire that could not modernize itself. If it choose democracy - then it would lose the monarchy which was the only thing tying the country together - so it had to be an oppressive monarchy in order to survive. And democracy would also mean that the German speakers would lose their dominant position within this empire.
So the empire was doomed to be dysfunctional and ineffective in handle economic funds and as a military fighting force. This was already clear in the mid-1700s when the country got their ass kicked by Prussia under Frederick the Great with a country that was much smaller.
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Sorry but this video was not one of your better.
The German doctrine was better auftragstaktik gave the Germans superior flexibility to adopt to new situations on the battlefield.
The Germans were masters of this, and this is also the reason why the war lasted so long despite overwhelming odds. The German NCOs professionalism was the biggest reason to Germany's military victories and it was the strongest card the Germans had on their hands. Many NCOs died during the war, and because of German tactics were their losses disproportionally high within the German army compared to other armies.
The German army could show surprising levels of skill even into the end in 1945 despite shortages of everything and a high proportion of badly trained teenagers within its ranks. A few of the men were combat veterans and/or highly trained and skilled men who were able to lead their newbie recruits through the hard times - and sometimes did their hard resistance cause huge problems to the allies
despite they being heavily outnumbered and underequiped. The fighting around Normandy and Seelöwe heights are a proof of this.
Germany were the master of tactics throughout the war. Their sniper tactics training videos are still very usable for modern snipers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNHeGrojUjg&t=1585s
Their auftragstaktik have inspired the Israeli army, and led to victories against overwhelming odds against far superior Arab army coalitions time and time again.
The use of radios in communication between tanks, and the use of radios to coordinate air support with the army did revolutionize warfare in the 1940's.
The German air force positioning of airbases close to the frontline did allow them to fly more missions per day than the allies, and thus also allowed them to get local air superiority as they could have more planes in the sky over the battlefield at any given time, while allied planes had to fly long distances from their base to the frontline and then waste an equal amount of hours flying back home to their well protected base far behind the frontline...
This might have helped the allies from getting their planes destroyed in ground attacks from German planes, but on the other hand did the allies lose air superiority over the battlefield and troops at the frontline were left to the mercy of the Luftwaffe which could hammer them relentlessly. German planes needed only about 20 minutes to get to the frontline so they could therefore fly many bombing missions in a single day. While allied planes would need 3 or 4 hours to get to their targets. So the ground troops saw many German planes and rarely any allied planes to help them... which was indeed demoralizing in 1940 during the fighting in France and the Benelux countries.
The Luftwaffe were also experts at other tricks. Their finger four formation they learned in the Spanish civil war gave them an upper hand against the British fighter wings with 3 planes, or even against a larger formation of 5 British planes. https://youtu.be/52YOKT_O10U?t=3887
And in North Africa did the Luftwaffe planes also get the upper hand by using the cover of the sun behind them as they did dive down upon allied planes which failed to spot their enemy in the strong desert sun during the day. And time and time again would German aces use this tactic with deadly effect on their enemy, and when the allied pilots discovered a German plane diving down upon them, then it was usually already too late to start defend themselves.
The allies did usually have weapons equal or superior to the German ones. But superior German tactics did for a long time allow the Germans to compensate for their inferior numbers or weapons. The American troops were typically better equipped than the German ones, but the US Army was amateurs compared to the Germans in 1942. USA learned lots of lessons from its mistakes, but it would never come close of showing the same brilliance as the German army had when it was at its best.
The US military did have many serious flaws even after the war, and they would also later on contribute to the loss of the war in Vietnam, as the stupid body count doctrine were the result of shitty thinking. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFvcuuS5eUI
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Unemployment went down thanks to military spending. Military contractors did have a nice time building weapons for the Fuhrer. And people in general was happy to have a job after years of economic hardship. The wages was bad, but so what? After a depression and a hyperinflation were people not so picky like they normally would be, and most people were happy to have any income at all even if it was low.
So the economy was not impressive. Every shitty government red, blue, brown, green - can get economic growth by spending money on the credit card and using up all years of saved foreign currency reserves to import things from abroad.
But most of us realize that this is not a sustainable model of running an economy in the long run.
One day you will run out of dollars and rubles to buy imports. Wasting money on the military does not improve quality of life that much, and it doesn't make investments for the future.
I am not against borrowing money for investments, but I am against the idea of borrowing money for pointless luxury consumption. Buying a flat screen TV with borrowed money because you cannot afford it otherwise is a stupid idea.
But if you borrowing money to invest in the future so your country will become richer in the long run and get a better economy to pay off old loans easily, then I support the idea. A good government should invest in research, education, infrastructure.harbors, a better energy grid and so on.
While tanks and battleships only begin to rust over time and does not improve the long term strenght of a countrys economy.
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They did not fail to notice it. France was more worried than Britain and wanted to go into Germany and stopping them from breaking the many agreements in the Versaille treaty. But Britain had a half-assed attitude towards Germany, and many Brits sympatized with the Germans and thought that the Versaille treaty had been too harsh. And France felt that it was too weak to act on its own, and such an act would not be much popular with public opinion in France either, since the country had suffered gigantic losses in ww1 and therefore had a strong anti-war movement. And the rise of fascism in France didn't help either.
When Hitler occupied the Rhineland in 1936 did the allies also overestimate the strength of Germany so they feared that a war would become very costly if they would punish Germany for such a minor thing. So the allies overestimated the effect of Hitlers rearmament, since the German army was still pretty weak.
Germany did what it could to scare people into thinking their army was stronger than it really was. During military parades did troops often march twice down the same street, and stretched out military formations made the on the column of vehicles and men longer, and thus if gave the impression that Germany had more men than it had.
The allies had reacted to all this. The French had already built their Maginot line so they were safe. But as an extra insurance did they also build as many panzer divisions as Germany, and they did also have so many tanks over that they could also give the infantry many hundreds of tanks. And the French tanks were not only more, but they were also better than the German ones.
And Britain had also started to re-arm, but they were doing it at a slower phase than Germany. But on the other hand did both Britain and France have bigger armies than Germany to begin with. Britain did reintroduce conscription in 1939 (four years after Germany). But that didn't matter if it was little late - the allies still outnumbered Hitler by 2:1 in 1940
and had twice as much tanks and planes.
So the allies were hardly any fools. Many French generals had also predicted the route Germany would take during their sweep into western Europe in 1940. So much of the failure of the allies in 1940 had more to do with politics, and better tactics of the German air force and auftragstaktik than it had to do with bad preparations on behalf of the allies.
As I said earlier - France did have just as many tank divisions as Germany plus a Maginot line.
Had I been a German General in 1939 I would had advised Hitler to not start the war, because Germany lacked oil and rubber for wheels on trucks and tank tracks, and silk for parachutes. And much of the soldiers in the German army divisions only had 2 months of training. Germany would also be outnumbered by the allies and have a weaker navy, and France would have strong prepared defensive positions in the Maginot line.
The armaments industry was getting priority over the rest of the German economy, but still it was unable to produce enough tanks to replace all tanks lost in Poland before the invasion of France in may 1940. The German army also relied much on horses, while the British army (BEF) was one of the most motorized armies in the world, while the French army was consider the best army in the world by that time.
Even if I like boldness in warfare and know that a weaker force often beats a larger one if it have better leadership and training, I would have felt very uneasy with Hitlers proposal to start a new world war.
All the odds were stacked against Germany.
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You got the government. And you got the private sector (citizens, corporations, banks, etc).
Every government borrows money from the private sector. And there is nothing wrong with that. Every country does that. And if you didn't do that, then you would not have any money in your country - because all money is debt.
And without debt you do not have any money.
So when your government goes more into debt, then do the private sector get richer. But when the government gets richer, then private sector gets poorer.
It is not hard to get why. If the government increases taxes, then the people will become poorer while the government will become richer. And when the government spends more money and going into debt (and thereby getting poorer) then the private sector will get more money, and the economy will be going well, peoples wages goes up, unemployment goes down and everyone is happy.
So it doesn't really matter how this happens. As long as the government spends more money than it takes, then private sector will get richer while the government will get poorer. You can do this by increasing welfare spending, wasting more money on the military or cutting taxes or doing everything at once.
The government have an unlimited ability to pay for everything it wants to have. Just like you would be able to buy everything you would see in a store if you had your own printing press. The only limitation you would have would be inflation.
What we now see here is that Germany did not borrow much money. The German government borrowed money from the German people. But building bombs and then blow them up is perhaps not the best way of creating valueable things to repay all loans.
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