Comments by "Cinderball" (@cinderball1135) on "" video.

  1. Warning! Wordalicious post ahead!: I would think Conservatives are in trouble ahead of this election - more than they know. What's actually fundamentally changed between 2019 and 2015? One thing: UKIP, a party that nibbled away 5-7% of Conservative votes, has just been replaced by the Brexit Party, gobbling up between 10 and 15% of their votes. And that's while the Brexit Party has left its campaigning machinery stood down. Goodness alone knows how effective their electioneering is likely to be. (I say this as one of their staunchest opponents). I think that the 2019 election, if we have one, will be a wipe-out for the Conservatives purely because they'll suddenly have their vote being split up and down the country. A loss of 10% of votes, across the board, would make a lot of (apparently) marginal constituencies completely unattainable to the Conservatives - and it would put some of their safe seats into play. People might argue that the Lib Dems and Labour parties are cannibalising each other too - but here's the thing - that was already baked into the cake. We already know how badly that this effect will hurt them, because it's already happened. Things can only get better for them, from here on out. This will be the first time the Tories fight an election without a complete stranglehold on their own voting base. They are used to having 35%-40% of the country's votes on lock. Now, everything is uncertain. They cannot, in my view, adequately muster their resources to combat the Brexit Party, because they don't know yet where it's going to hit them hardest - whether the Brexit Party vote will be localised to a few key constituencies (which they can discard in favour of others) or whether it will be a national phenomenon. How can they prepare for something they've never seen before? This is the kind of uncertainty - the kind of wild card - which makes wargaming this election nearly impossible. And if I was a Tory strategist, that would have me shit-scared.
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  2. @Nobby Heads I don't disagree with you, but I don't really see how it answers my post :) I am no fan of the Brexit Party, I disapprove greatly of their methods, but a vote that's cast for them is a vote that's not cast for a Tory. That's my point.
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