Comments by "david devlin" (@Art-is-craft) on "Europe's Cold Winter Threatens Energy Supplies || Peter Zeihan" video.

  1. He is predicting cost pressures on German energy. If you do not believe the lack of cheap Russian gas will not impact German industrial cost then you risking a massive shock. Once German out put goes into decline it will not recover.
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  2. Cannot prepare that is the problem. The amount of energy storage required to ride out the lack of Russian supply is several orders of magnitude beyond the current system. Germany has a ten year reserve supply of energy so they can keep the lights on and not freeze to death but that is not the same as producing millions of cars on cheap energy.
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  3. You’re confident the weather will be fine. Listen to what you are saying. When has there ever been confidence in weather.
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  4. That gas reserve only guarantees that the system does not collapse. It does not guarantee industrial energy stability.
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  5. What most of you do not understand is that heating houses is not the actual crisis. I suspect some of you do not listen to or have read all of Peters work.
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  6. Winter starts in November and lasts December, January with feb being the first month of Spring.
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  7.  @Simple_But_Expensive  Japan does have an expeditionary navy but it is no where near UK levels. Japan will trounce most countries at sea as they are an island naval force.
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  8. The point is that Europe weather will affect uk at some level in regard to energy. The uk did not buy into the Russian supply system so it is not directly exposed but will feel the pinch when it happens in Europe.
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  9. Last winter was very mild his point is any colder and it will put extreme pressure on the market. He is not talking about heating homes but the industrial output of the German economy.
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  10.  @kognak6640  You cannot claim that gas coming from the Middle East has a more efficient stable price than the Germans Eastern supply. There is a reason why Germany got hooked on that eastern gas. Fluctuations in consumer energy has little effect on an economy but that is not the case for industrial energy consumption. Production planning works best on long term stability.
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  11.  @kognak6640  LNG prices are much more prone to market instability and all it will require is for demand to increase for us to see crazy things. LNG is cheap and stable as long as there is a good pipe supply network of natural gas. Image there was a large industrial country that all of a sudden starts suck up all the supply of LNG.
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  12.  @kognak6640  Germany will be doubling its LNG capacity in the next 5 years. Which means it will be suck up nearly 15% of European capacity. There is only so much LNG capacity due to infrastructure limitations
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  13. They say those things all the time but in some regions July was cold and damp.
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  14. Those cold snaps put real pressure on the market. One crisis is all it takes.
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  15.  @Ea-pb2tu  The economy of Europe is not going to be fine. One bad winter or normal winter and energy reserves will put massing industrial energy cost pressures on the market. Germany was not buying cheap eastern energy for the fun of it.
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  16.  @Ea-pb2tu  If the EU goes into decline so will the East. The issue for Europe is not heating or electricity to keep the various countries alive. German industry has been able to keep quality high and prices low but that cannot be the cast without cheap eastern energy. It takes a generation to correct such dependence.
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  17.  @Ea-pb2tu  An economy that was thirty years in development most certainly takes a generation to correct.
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  18.  @thetruth9874  What do you mean by Europe. There is no centralised gas system of reserves.
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  19.  @idiottv6499  It is still colder than last winter and just a degree of difference will impact pricing.
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  20.  @idiottv6499  France is not the economic power house of the EU and does not have an industrial model that was built on the back of cheap eastern gas. I do not think people fully understand that Germanys crisis will not be heating homes but the pressure of industrial energy production. There is a reason why Germany got hooked on cheap eastern energy.
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  21. Uk is not Europe.
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  22. You do not resonate with because you do not understand his point. The real danger is not heating the home but the industrial price cost. Remember Germany does not have cheap endless Russian gas it now has to pay for more expensive sources that are not as stable. Imagine it gets cold in Europe and Germany is buying in more expensive energy that increases production costs.
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  23.  @PWMoze  For the UK it will be a crisis that will have solutions that will not be the case for most European countries. UK auto will overtake German auto.
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  24. No they are not set. The problem is not home heating or the lights. 😊
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  25. But they were cold. All it takes is one cold snap to real eat into those reserves for next year.
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  26. The problem most of you do not understand is that very small temperature fluctuations can impact at the marginal levels. Most of you do not understand Peters point.
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  27.  @ajc5479  He said he is not directly concerned with Europe right now but other places that are further away and competing with Europe. What most of you do not understand is that Peter is not saying there will be people freezing to death but that industrial production in Germany is going to become uncompetitive.
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