Comments by "Xyz Same" (@xyzsame4081) on "Thom Hartmann Program"
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NOTHING is more important for Dems than keeping the big donors happy, not even winning the general. Dems would like to win the general of course but they cannot offend the big donors with running on economic populism.
Not all will lose their races in the general (although it gets harder in the Senate), the districts for House seats are more often safely blue.
If they lose - the big whigs are getting a golden parachute.
So if needed they use the same voter suppression strategies as Republicans in the general, albeit not at the large scale like Republicans. But if there even IS a challenge to the status quo, Dems mean business. They can fight and be sneaky - they just never use that against Republicans.
Closing polling stations at universities, closing other polling stations, kicking lots of minority voters from the rolls. Greg Palast remembers one of the most brazen purges he has ever seen in New Mexico (and he has seen a LOT) in order to disenfranchise poor Latino voters when a neoliberal Democrat was challenged in the primaries.
Or the "mistake" that happened in Brooklyn in the D primaries in 2016. They were not sure if Sanders could win in New York (Clinton had been a Senator there, that would have been embarrassing), and they took no chances.
In the end she would have won NY, but likely with a much closer margin. The polls had been off in Michigan. Like I said the party machine jumped into action. No one was punished, the civil servant happened to make a VERY favorable real estate deal later. (Selling well over market value).
Big donor serving Democrats typically run (and typically lose) on a lame Republican Lite platform (see the lost Senate seats of "conservative" Democrats)
The leadership tries to eek out a NARROW win in Congress. That suits them just fine, then they can always blame Republicans if they do not make good on campaign promises (the few populist they make).
The bluedogs are gladly tolerated, they do not get the hositility that progressives get. Manchin and 2 other Senators with a D to their name undermined the attempt of the Obama admin to pass an infrastructure bill with simple majority (of course the Repubs were not on board).
That was in 2013.
In 2009 Lieberman and a few like him killed the Public Option.
Now the same playbook regarding filibuster and federa minimum wage (15 in 2024 and 9.60 soon).
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The most important elections in the U.S. are the D primaries, that is the ONLY race where you might have the chance to vote for a We The People candidate. (and legally they are not elections but a selection process of a private org, the Democratic party). This is March 2021: Yes Joe Biden and Dems throw money around, I am not complaining, but that is a temporary fix.
But no fighting for STRUCTURAL CHANGE, that would cost the big donors, so far it is all added to debt. (again: I do not want to fear monger about debt and deficit, on the other hand at the current levels they need to have an eye on it, and it is crucial to spend the money wisely).
Federal minimum wage USD 15 till 2025 (and 9,60 soon) was pathetically abandoned. (It should be over 10 since 2018 if the U.S. would only have 1968 levels ! in purchasing power) *
Medicare for the uninsured ? (It would have been the chance for an experiment, and it is time limited, so what was the reason not to do it ?)
Nope ! The 1.9 trillion package gives plenty of subsidies to COBRA so unemployed can have low cost health insurance. Which is good for them, but of course the prudent and rational way would have been to not hand over those customers to the for-profits with 20 - 30 % overhead but to Medicare agency with 3 % overhead and the much better rates. That would have cost less (it is added to the debt pile after all), they could have tested it with a no too large but substantial number of insured.
2 millions and likely family members but younger folks (working age), so they are less likely to need it than the over 65 year old (they are the most costly group among the insured).
And as this was only for the pandemic time even the professional pearl clutchers need not worry (that their big donors are getting permanent competition).
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They are not getting rid of their dictator in NK anythime soon (Qatar, Brunei, KSA, China, Uzbekistan, Egypt, Jordan - anyone ?) the next best thing is to give them some carrots. And PUSH for better human rights (that is that the West NEVER can be bothered to do with the "good" brutal dictators. WHILE the dictator or authoritarian leader can feel safe from external "regime change".
Even dictators have to solve the problem of the economy. AND: if the dictator feels less threatened that foreign forces will assassinate him there is a chance they will be less brutal and paranoid.
Maybe the BRUTUAL genocidal bombing of Korea, especially NK explains something about the NK psyche. The "need" to have a god like "dear leader".
How many admitted plots to assassinate Castro do we know ? I may have contributed to internal suppression, spying and paranoia in Cuba.
Little unimportant, Cuba. Weak regarding the economy and the military. They did not send terrorists to the U.S. - but the U.S. committed acts of terrorism against Cuba (bombs in shipping containers, civilian goods, the iconic Che photo was made during the burial procession for the killed dock workers).
in 2002 the U.S. backed a coup of right wing forces in Venezuela. They did not dare to kill Chavez - and it failed. What business had the U.S. to meddle with Venezueal ?
As for Cuba: U.S. could have just ignored them and let them do their thing. No one cared when dictator Batista and the mob ran the place. Instead the U.S. placed sanctions on Cuba longer than on any other nations - and rabidly forced other nations to keep those unjustified sanctions as well. Whch of course made the Cubans circle the wagons. And rendered Castro paranoid.
The West knows only two ways to deal with dictators: sell them everything they need to brutally suppress their own people, as long as they cooperate with the U.S. and let Westenr Big Biz explit the country.
OR - for some reason the dictator stands for some reason in the way (geopolitics, has crazy ideas to use natural resources for the citizens, is allied with countries which the U.S. considers adversaries).
Then xyz has to go. Often these countries are not real democracies - but it does not matter. selective coverage and making stuff up or ramping up some invented danger will do just fine (Red Scare for mildly left leaning Chilenan policies in the 1970s).
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Burning fossil fuels is the most important factor ! - as far as Global warming goes (not talking about other things). Steam engines have an efficiency of under 24 %, most of the energy of the fuel (coal, gas, oil ) goes into heat not motion, (combustion engines are also very inefficient, in that range).
Replacing a LOT of that electricity with help of increasingly cheap solar panels and falling battery prices goes a long way.
In sunny regions the providers already have a hard time competing with solar, so when the realistic costs for energy are put on the fossil fuels (it is not only the costs of GW, also the risks for accidents / oil spills, and also the pollution and healthcare costs), then every spot on roofs that is a good fit, will be covered by solar panels.
Electricity from gas powered plants etc. will not be able to compete, they have a hard time alrady in sunny regions if the electricity is not dirt cheap. In the United Arab Emirates they installed solar anels in 2012 (around that time before beg. of 2014, I heard a speech), that was cheaper than building a gas fired plant.
They have excellent conditions for solar (and need most for A/C when supply is high) but they also have the gas for practically nothing.
Falling prices and mass deployment of solar power will help with electricity and fuel for cars. Homes can be insulated - if done right it helps against cold and heat. (heat: the windows must be shaded and of course no single pane windows. The strategy is to keep the windows closed from late morning till sunset and to only open them during night. It also helps so have MASS that sotres hear and acts as a buffer - in summer and winter).
The deforestation, factory farming, big ag methods comes from the same mindset that hindered rational action regarding GW.
Meat is another part of the equation, but fossil fuel BURNING has more impact (on GW).
Dairy is a fairly efficient use of land, btw - i think with optimized methods (smaller farms, rotational grazing cows only eating GRASS) it may be able to beat even plant production per acreage. One aspect is that it is easier to maintain fertility with manure. So even farmers that mainly produce plant food (for humans) have some animals, to help with that.
Animals (a few cows, some pigs, chickens) provide synergies, that is especially important for SMALL farms (which are desirable for many reasons). The advantages can only be gained if a farm does not get too large, and it gives the smaller operations an edge.
They do not use the huge machines, they have trees and niches on the farm (which is good for a roubst ecosystem, but stands in the way of conventional "efficiency"). So they need to benefit from the other advantages they have - and integrating animals into growing plant food is one of them.
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@127cmore Piers Corbyn is NOT famous. you get a _reputation in the SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY by presenting PEER REVIEWED studies and exposing your findings to the critique of the experts in the field. Not by making your case to the laypersons (be it in books, on a blog, or even on TV as beloved pop science presenter). - Piers Morgan is a name in the denier community, but not among CLIMATE SCIENTISTS.
Not sure about his training (astro physicist ?). If so, that does not qualify him to contradict scientists who work in the field. Climate science is complex, encompasses many fields, is very split up among many experts.
A scientist that presents peer reviewed studies for let's say ocean streams and how they impact surface water temperature would be very careful about contradicting other scientists that examine the glaciers of Greenland or that work at a partial issue regarding the atmosphere.
Not because they do not dare - but because they know how specialized their own field is and how much work, expertise goes into their studies.
Fools rush in where angels fear to tread - if you get what I mean.
Since science and especialy climate science is so specialized and is covered by so many fields there is little chance that an unrelated person / scientist with expertise and WORK in another field can make a contribution - or find flaws in a study that the experts have overlooked.
The experts (and the universities) worldwide subscribe to the very specialized peer-review magazines (the subscriptions are very expensive. Studies are often behind a paywall, only the abstract is public . Today they are all on the internet (not sure if they still print, the most famous journals might).
Scientists makes an impression (and work towards tenure) by
1) publishing in peer reviewed magazines (and they have to find ones that think your work is up to standards and provides insights. That can be confirming or contradicting other studies. No one proves or denies climate change btw - they work at small parts of the puzzle. Climate is hihgly complex. You cannot pay your way into publishing, not with the respected journals. With the interntet some magazines publish that accept payments for that - and there have been problems, that they will accept sloppy or biased work)
2) ripping a study of a collegue apart - or at least finding a flaw ;)
so they have swarm intelligence of highly trained experts going on. That process is not perfect - but the arch bends very much towards finding the most obvious flaws, bullshitting is not possible, and over time the insights get better, more accurate.
PEER REVIEW is a major element of the scientific method. Scientiest are not necessarily much more ethical (although hardly anyone becomes an astro physicist or biologist as a get rich quickly scheme). But they keep each other straight.
If memory serves Piers Corbyn had a for profit company where he tried to predict the weather for a few months (as data base to speculate on crop prices). Seems to have worked for a time and he became known to investors (not sure about the big guys), but it wasn't an ongoing success.
He can make money by authoring a book or holding speeches that contradict that there is problematic warming going on or that it is a manmade issue - of course alway adressing the laypersons not the experts.
That can generate much more income than working as a scientist in the field and meeting the rigorous standards. If he is a useful surrogate for special interests (because a degree in ANOTHER field gives him credibility with laypersons) - that does not help him with the scientific community. It is still a meritocracy. Also being good in communicating and tricks in presentation and changing graphs or cherry picking ("Lord" Monckton) - might impress viewers but not scientists.
The shorter the time the more erratic the predictions are.
Climate is the averaged weather (over regions and time).
You cannot say what the temperature will be on March 2nd 2023. But you can confidently assume that March in 2023 (or 2021) will be on average warmer than January (in the Northern hemisphere). And there is a good chance that the highest temperature in January is lower than the highest one in any March.
Statistcis, large numbers, longer periods of time.
Versus trying to predict weather beyond 5 - 10 days.
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Merkel is not "beloved", people got used to her, and tolerated her - her unassuming attitudie covers for a clever opportunist. Her way to preside over stagnation and the slow economic decline (from former glory) meets a fairly conservtive, self absorbed relatively old population. Where 30 % are still well off. And the young that don't do too well can still hope to inherit from the parents.
She is a staunch neoliberal, a sellout. See how she dealt with the financial crisis. True some help for the masses (or it would have been the pitchforks and lost elections) but after the immediate crisis it was austerity for the masses.
Joseph Ackerman of Deutsche Bank was her "advisor". Mr. 20 % ROI set up the bank to its current problems (with a lot of shady derivatives in the boods).
The way economically harmful austerity was forced on Greece. This was ideological and to "discipline" France, Italy and Spain (same structural problems), and to preventively take the side of big biz and finance (who of course got bailed out). Germany knew it did not make sense economically, austerity would even reduce their chances to get the loans ever paid down - and it would devastate Greece. (Wolfgang Schaeuble and Varoufakis). They did not care. This was not about the economy and not even about protecing the interests of German citizens.
And last but not least the "energy" reform.
If a person has the average wage in Germany they will be just above poverty line with their old age pension (Social Security). They have been talking about old age poverty in Germany for 15 years now.
the red-green Social-Democratic / Green Party coaltion (a force for neoliberalism btw - like Bush1 could not pass NAFTA it needed Bill Clinton to screw the working class, this was the era when types like Clinton, Blair and Schroeder were at large) passed an orderly transition out of nuclear power. slowly shutting them down. that was the only thing the Greens were good for in that government. They supported the lies that led to the CRIMINAL NATO boming of Serbia (there were no massacres going on at the time, and no planning. They had ONE source for the alleged plan of ethnic cleansing - driving out one minority group. a colorful character to put it mildly.). The bombing escalated the situation and sidelined the moderates on all sides. Clinton WANTED war. But with Germany NOT going along he could not have had it. Germany did not share a border with Yugoslavia (little Austria is in between), but the bases were necessary and the MORALE support.
The Green party had also absorbed the anti war movement of the 1980s, it was shameful that they supported the war mongering. Economic help would have gone a long way to ease the tensions. Would have been also cheaper - but setting a bad example (other nations in Europe would also have needed a "Marshall plan" and totally against the neoliberal ideology. The Greens could have ended the coalition over it, and challenged the government on the necessity of war. Instead they styled the Serbs as new Nazis (Never again) in order to justify the betrayal. The Serbian rhetoric was inflammatory, some atrocities happened (on ALL sides) but there were no massacres nor were they planned).
Then - after the bombing - of Servian civilians, TV stations the scene was set up for further escalation and masscres. Sending in Islamic extremists from Afghanistan (they were done fighting the Soviets) helped with the escalations. The Croats had a fascist group that fought the Serbs. German media (undermined by Nato loyal think tanks and CIA) fell in line.
Internationally red is the color of the Lefties, unions and Social Democrats, only in the U.S. it is the Conservatives that have that as signature color.
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