Comments by "Xyz Same" (@xyzsame4081) on "Nine People Test Positive At School That Suspended Teens For Exposing Unsafe Conditions" video.
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I KNOW from data that in Austria 3,25 % of all identified cases DIE. Some of the survivors have spent weeks in the ICU. And others have of course long term damage. Austria is a country with a good healthcare system for all, paid sick leave (that includes time for quarantine) and they have a grip on the situation (unlike the U.S.). economy is open, tourists coming but they must test (and with restrictions and mask mandate was reintroduced).
the testing is strategic contact testing, and some random testing (but also better than in the U.S.).
But let's assume for every identified case (= "tested positive" most of course recover at home, or have no or little symptoms) there are 3 cases that go unnoticed. Which is a HIGH assumption, considering that the authorities do contact tracing, and testing and watch the situation like hawks. And that the population has paid sick leave, that legal restrictions restict firing of sick workers (not only during corona times) and that they get testing and treatment free at the point of service.
1 case identified and 3 are not found and the known number of "died FROM corona" (that is certified)
- that lands you at 0,81 % instead of 3,25 %
Dr. Fauci's estimate for the death rate is a little higher. 1 % that is 10 times higher than for flu.
The U.S. has 330 million people. if 30 % get infected which is a low estimate if you let it run its course thats 99 million people infected . So in theory 990,000 people DIE.
BUT: with that many cases the systems would be completely overwhelmed and then the death rates go up, not only for corona virus. Italy was there, the doctors already got the letters of how to handle triage, they were 2 - 3 days within officially ! using that.
Triage is what they do in the war zone in the field hospitals when they decide who gets the help (the scarce resources) and whom they let die.
with 30 % infected (and that could go fast) the deat toll would be much higher than 1 %.
It is like a wildfire, you can put a lot of effort into putting out the little fires immediately (or monitor where you think they could start).
Or you let the fire ravage the region (think the Spanish Flu in 1918 and 1919) or the Bubonic Plague.
At some point a wildfire and a pandemic will end.
The Spanish Flu also ended - after 50 million people (most were young under 40) had died.
What you can't have is a mild fire and you live with it. a Wildfire Lite.
It is a waste of resources to do a little bit prevention, that will not do you any good. Either go the full mile (see Europe, Australia, ...) or throw the hands up in the air and accept the terrible consequences.
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SARS-CoV-1 from 2002/2003 did not cause a pandemic (it was a close call, it mainly hit Asia, the virus is now extinct). In 2013 (I think) another corona virus switched from animals to humans, and they got sick. Severely - it has a death rate of 30 % even with modern medicine (that's MERS Middle East Respiratory Syndrome. the flu does not attack your lung but the corona viri that cause MERS / SARS do. Or the massive reaction of the immune system).
So yes, MERS with the very high death rate is very different to the lower death rate of CoVid-19 (caused by SARS-CoV-2) - factor 30 - or the even lower death rate of the flu. You have to know the context when you quote Dr. Fauci as published in the New England Journal of Medicine.
But CoVid-19 is sadly also more contagious than the flu (MERS is the least contagious, and we are lucky that that is the case).
MERS (2013) - not only can the virus infect persons that handle animals (camels, dromedars), it also became contagious between humans.
Now the disease was called MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) because it orginates from the Arab Penninsula and luckily although it can be passed on between humans it is not very contagious. Which is a good thing because if you got it, you are in real trouble.
Modern hygiene CAN contain it well. (the spreading, for the patients they can try intense care).
You bet Dr. Fauci would rather deal with that, the individuals are unlucky but it is much easier to protect society from that.
The outbreak of 2013 was quickly contained, there are cases here and there so the virus exists in the wild. So far no problem. The less cases the less chances it will mutate. god help us if it would became more contagious will remaining as lethal.
For now we are good.
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Tested positive (and the test is correct) = person can spread it. They may not be sick = having symptoms, but they are easily INFECTIVE. (nothing new here, many infections can be passed on and the person does not get it, think measles, and the person passing it on is vaccinated and immune)
There is no doubt at all about that, and you are not correctly informed. persons can pass it on with or without symptoms, or BEFORE they get symptoms.
A person may be almost over it and still test positive but is de facto not contagious anymore. But you cannot rely on that. (that glimmer over there could be a little fire, but maybe it is an optical illusion. Well, let's ignore it, if it is really a fire we are going to notice at some point ....)
Yes, there is evidence that the asymptomatic cases do spread it, too. Now - a person with fully blown symptoms will normally shed more virus BUT they KNOW they are infectious, and the persons around them know it too. And that helps to prevent passing it on.
The sneaky way of being passed on (by person with very light or no symptoms, or no symptoms YET) and the incubation time of 5 days (it can be longer 5 is the average) is one of the reasons the damn' thing is so contagious.
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