Comments by "Xyz Same" (@xyzsame4081) on "Arctic Hits Its Hottest Temperature Ever" video.
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@Mephistahpheles more like small hinges move big doors. Water vapor is much more in volume (and plays an important role in keeping the planet (in a stable mattern) at higher temps, and thus well suited for life) - but it is self restricting. Vapor follows climate change, it cannot trigger one.
More water evaporates into the air when it is warmer - and it rains down within days. Other greenhouse gases (trace gases) are more effective than CO2. Think methane: 30 times more effective over 100 years (so high methane release can be a boost - and when that is enough to trigger the release of MORE methan from swamps and the deep sea, that can be a feedback loop.
BUT CO2 beats them when it comes to change of climate. Becaus it is so stable in the atmosphere (centuries, maybe up to 1000 years).
The next important climate gas to trigger (longer lasting !) change in climate history is methane.
Both gases are released or reduced by different processes (living organisms, plankton dies off in masses and becomes a sink, volcanic activity. The first time a lot of trees grew on earth. Or large new mountain range like the Alpes or the Himalaya is folded up (the "fresh" rock reacts with C02 and fishes it out of the atmosphere).
There were also massive volcanic activities that lasted for 100,000 years and then the released gases (also SO2) played a role to change the climate.
If a volcano blows up (Tambora, Krakatau) it creates global dimming etc and harvest failures and cold temps for a few years (year without summer) but the climate bounces back after a few years after these gases start disappearing, react with other elements or molecules, or are broken down in the atmosphere.
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@mikenelson4024 We do not need modelling (except for predicting the future). Temps HAVE BEEN RISING in an UNPRECEDENTED and FAST manner. that is MEASURED. The trend is especially strong, and glaringly obvious since the 1990s, it is GLOBAL (not only one hemisphere, not like the Medieval warm and cold periods that affected large areas, but were by no means global, think 30 % and over time the impact (warming or cooling) shifted from region or continent to others.
The surprisingly FAST warming NOW is already manifest IN the oceans. they are excellent storage of heat, they are huge (so it takes a LOT of heat to warm them up). The process of melting ice needs magnitudes more of energy input.
Take 0 degree ice (Celsius scale, zero is the freezing point for fresh water) and add energy until it is all molten but STILL at 0 degree.
Then add the SAME amount of energy (that was necessary to just melt it) to the zero degree water, and you end up with 85 degree celsius hot water (which is not yet boiling point - that is 96 - 97 degrees, 100 at low altitude. 85 degree Celsius is very hot, they use that temp to pasteurize food).
The ICE at both poles is a BUFFER for heat, for the climate and that buffering effect is used by the industry too. Plus the albedo effect that we are missing out as the ice is melting at the poles.
We break record after record. There are no other factors that could explain such unprecedented warming (it is nothing like in the past - and "past" goes WAY beyond measured temps, they can also check that with tree rings and other fossil records).
It is not the sun, radiation has not changed.
On the other hand: the warming is consistent with what you would expect if you add so much CO2 over time. CO2 that had been sequestered away (for millions of years, up to 200 millions in the case of old coal) and now it is added to the natural carbon cycle of the globe. Which used to be in balance (if not, weather and growing conditions would be chaotic, there are many loops and feedback loops that affect climate and IF there is any change there can be erratic, crazy weather / climate phenomens until the systems swings into a fairly balanced state. Which then can be at another level.
That balance only changes slowly on a human scale. 600 - 1000 * years would be super fast (we are doing it in 200 years and most of it in the last 70 years). * That was at the end of the last glaziation. Crazy things happened, but then there were not 8 or more billion humans on the globe doing farming and building settlements based on expectations of rainfall, temperature and risk of storms, hailstorms (ruining harvests) and draughts.
Enough rain for whatever crops were doing O.K. in that region, but not too much, and not all at once pouring down.
Settlements: not having constant flooding, wild storms, mudslides, avalanches / mudslides that erase villages in the mountains. Failing dams, or running out of water for cities.
Or new diseases and pests.
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