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Comments by "jeppen" (@jesan733) on "Russia Launched Surprise OFFENSIVE in Luhansk" video.

@david-468 "also the generals of the u.s. military and pentagon having direct talks with Ukraine isn’t influencing or forcing Ukraines decisions?" Influencing, not forcing. It's a partnership where the US helps with advice, intelligence and planning. "Do you live in reality?" I live in a democratic reality where our countries are true partners, not master-vassal relationships like Russia-Belarus. "also you act like we the United States and Europe would train troops and then expect them to stay on the defensive" Why not? "we wanted a counter offensive and Ukraine did our bidding, we are an evil country" None of this is true. Ukraine obviously wants to do counter-offensives because it wants to liberate territories. We, the west, haven't even fully committed to Ukrainian victory. I think we're still scared Putin would go nuclear on us if we pushed too hard. We're too chicken to even allow Ukraine to hit targets in Russia with our missiles. It's insane and extreme cowardice, and I think we'd be secretly relieved if Ukraine folded and allowed Russia to keep occupied territories so we can go back to business as usual.
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@magnacarta9364 "But Russia is not playing that game , in some instance Ukrainians have been dying at 16 to 1 Russian & in other cases higher" Yeah, why not 160 to 1? There's no limit to how the Russian propaganda disrespects you and makes you believe nonsense.
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Ukraine's offensive literally ran into a minefield, so they paused that and started to methodically work on Russian rear positions and artillery by superior counter-battery fire and precision bombings through HIMARS and Storm Shadow. Meanwhile they've been clearing mines and making small scale clearings of Russian positions and trenches. So they essentially reverted to attritional warfare. Eventually they'll turn back to offensive maneuver warfare, and there are rumours it has started. I wouldn't call it a failure; they encountered difficulties and immediately adapted well to preserve equipment and manpower. You're listening to too much Russian propaganda if you think Ukraine isn't behaving rationally. Btw, the US hasn't forced Ukraine into any offensives.
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@igorfoxly2555 "Currently, 20 millions vs 145 millions" Russian propaganda lies won't help Russia much.
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@lanatana3867 "Not satisfied with that now NATO are involved in a War with Russia over Ukraine. When all they had to do for peace is say Ukraine will be a neutral country and not topple or get involved in the internal matters of Ukraine." This is simply not true. Ukraine wanted to orient west and get security assurances. Russia wanted to grab land and have a vassal state like Belarus. You're thinking Russia had reasonable demands. It did not, and it's not for a democracy to stay a vassal of a corrupt dictatorship.
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@DaFIZZZ Ukraine got zero heavy weaponry from the west until well after the full-scale invasion had begun.
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@aligmal5031 "crimea is russian with majority of ethnic russians who voted for joining russia" Why do you think that matters? The Catalan couldn't break out of Spain. Any Crimeans who want to live in Russia will have to move to Russia. "if there is any peace talk ukraine would be lucky to keep odessa" Dude, Russia was thrown out of Kherson. It will never be able to cross the Dniepr again.
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@jeffrutledge1789 "No at this point Russia should not accept anything but unconditional surrender of Ukraine!" That's about as realistic as it would be for Russia to take Texas or France.
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The Pentagon leaks indicates that the best US intelligence is that Russia has 3x the deaths and 2x the injuries of Ukraine. Of course, you can speculate that the US intelligence is off the mark, but I prefer their estimates to uncertain POW comparisons or daft speculations that the Russian habit of farting artillery shells in the general direction of the enemy is somehow decisive.
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@tomk3732 do you have a precise quote from Milley so that we can verify that he meant 30% of 17 brigades? I really doubt it.
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@tomk3732 if this war drags on for a few years, about 200k Ukrainian male youth will turn 18 every year. But more importantly, there's a genocide of Russian artillery going on now. If Russia can't up it's counter-artillery game soon, and F16s are introduced to add insult to injury, Russia won't be able to harm Ukraine much beyond this fall.
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@christianclark347 what if you're the nazi, and you just don't realize it?
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@demukazz biolabs? So you're not an ordinary captive of Russian propaganda? You're a full-blown conspiracy theorist.
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@MicahDAmato so, which official statistic supports your stance that 20m is correct? "Lmao" isn't evidence. My take is around 30m.
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@MicahDAmato the end of 2021 population was 41m not including Crimea, minus Donetsk and Luhansk 6 million, so that's 35 million. And then 6m refugees, so 29m remain.
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@Stormyy6310 dude, you just believe what you want to believe. The copium is all yours.
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@vanjamenadzer well, you still are a Russian bot, effectively. Russia is losing.
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@chuckking6917 mossad hasn't done such an estimate. It's just Russian propaganda ascribed to mossad.
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@MicahDAmato I believe you when you say you're extremely biased toward reporting Russian strengths. If you work for the US MIC, what are you doing here on this wildly immature pro-Russian channel? Are you a mental child like that Pentagon leaker?
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@davidmorris6226 as I mentioned to another guy, better numbers are these: The end-of-2021 population was 41m not including Crimea, minus Donetsk and Luhansk 6 million, so that's 35 million. And then 6m refugees, so 29m remain. Regarding maths, I'm probably better at it than everybody else in this comment field. I have an MSc in engineering and I was at the top of my class in math.
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@LoneWolf-je9vr Zaporizhzhia and Kherson cities, and more, are held by Ukraine, so you can't add even 1 million from the oblasts. I stand by 29m.
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@david-468 "omg, can you cope any harder" Can you? You're here in one of YTs most immature backwaters, full of muslim captives of Russian propaganda. Why? "that “attritional” warfare you speak of is a losing battle for Ukraine" Of course, in the Russian propaganda. Not in real life. "also it isn’t attritional warfare it’s using long range misses on civilian and highly populated targets including multiple assassinations which goes against the Geneva convention" Now you're just performing Russian propaganda's typical lazy reality inversion, pretending that Ukraine is doing what Russia is doing. Not very interesting.
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 @david-468 why do you think you're able to spot "Ukrainian bots"? No, I'm not working for the US government. I'm a Swede on vacation.
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@david-468 "damn you live in fantasy land" And you live in Russian propaganda land.
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@DaFIZZZ no offensive weaponry at all, because the west didn't want to provoke Russia. It was even very, very late that Ukraine even got NLAWs and Javelins. The problem was that exactly the lack of heavy support provoked Russia. A victim's weakness provokes the criminal mind into action.
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@ilijapilipovic very eloquent, but ultimately misguided.
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@gregkillam there was no coup, there was only a popular revolution. And there was no SMO, just a full scale war. There's no grift, just decent support for Ukraine's freedom and independence. Using Russian propaganda language doesn't create reality. It's a fact that Ukraine got no western heavy weaponry until well after the full-scale war had started. Ukraine repelled the full strength of the Russian military with its own old Soviet gear plus some javelins and nlaws. The embarrassment for Russia is hard to overstate.
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@randylahey8207 "so they're fighting attritional warfare against an enemy with a much larger army, many more weapons, many more resources to use from their own armament etc" Yes, and successfully so. Because Ukraine is conducting the war in a more modern way, treating its soldiers better, planning better and using more precision in strikes. Lethality isn't based on numbers as much as on target aquisition and precision. "Not exactly a well-thought-out plan now is it?" Outside the world of the Russian propaganda, it works well. Especially Russian artillery is being exterminated as we speak. "Might want to lower the dose of copium..." The copium is all yours.
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@teeheeteeheeish you should be disgusted at being a traitor who pumps your ears full of Russian propaganda. Detoxify and you'll feel better eventually.
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@BassamShareef1991 the US defeated insurgents all the time, but eventually the US tired of trying to civilize religious savages. It's not comparable to this war.
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@davidmorris6226 "it’s not about that. It is about the fact that Ukraine has lost 30+% of its vehicles and equipment and lost tends of thousands of soldiers." These aren't facts, those are invalid extrapolations and misinterpretations, afaik. "Furthermore, apparently China is now supplying Russia." Some drone equipment, right? Well, its expected that they won't have a complete trade barrier toward Russia. "And guess who has the larger manufacturing capacity between China and the US?" Of course, we have a major problem is China really starts supplying Russia with ammo and heavy equipment. "The west has even admitted through MSM that Ukraine was not given enough for this offensive because the west believed Russia would break and the Russian army would collapse when faced with Ukrainian resolve." Sounds like ordinary Russian propaganda misinterpretations, like the lies about Merkel "admitting" that Minsk wasn't for real. Typical Russian disinfo. But I have to give it to Russia that they managed to handle Prigozhin's rebellion with little disruption. That was potentially completely devastating for Russia, but they handled it well.
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@gregkillam the Russian propaganda has milked the Union house tragedy for all its worth, I know. In reality, you're the nazi as you support Russia.
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Russia doesn't have offensive capabilities enough to do much at all. Russia cannot come close to e.g. occupying Odessa. If you think they do, you're listing too much to ridiculous traitors like Macgregor who've been consistently wrong this whole war (not because he's dumb, but because he's salaried to lie). Perhaps Russia can freeze the conflict and keep the currently occupied territories, but I really doubt it. The big question is if the West is going to chicken out and let Russia keep Crimea.
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@ratty7673 "literally impossible unless someone directly joins the fight on Ukraine’s side" Why? When Ukraine has reached the Sea of Azov, it will essentially have fire control over Crimea. Crimea will be endlessly sniped by Ukrainian rocket artillery and Russia will also remain sanctioned by the western world until it retreats. It will be long-term untenable, just as the Kherson occupation.
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@gundissalinus "Ukraine is Russia, its independence was a mistake." Ukraine's national identity is now being forged in blood in opposition to Russia. It will take generations for Russia and Ukraine to get closer again.
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@themissingpeace7956 Russia was the party that refused to comply with Minsk2. They blame Ukraine, but the Russian propaganda always blames everyone else.
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@JosephMwema you have to realize Russia can't conquer the Ukrainian coastline. It was hard-pressed to conquer Bakhmut and could do so only because Ukraine let it happen.
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@TheNightWatcher1385 "Russia can and will win this war if they truly wish to." No, sorry, they're bigger, but long-term, 140 million poor people in a brutal dictatorship won't outproduce and outsmart 1 billion rich people. If China truly starts helping Russia, they can win. Otherwise not.
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@TheNightWatcher1385 "Crimea is Russian territory now. Hundreds of thousands of Russians have moved there and built lives. If Ukraine wants Crimea back they’d have to engage in an ethnic cleansing of Crimea through mass forced removal." Lots of Russian civilians will flee with the Russian troops. Otherwise they'll be prosecuted as collaborators. Also, Ukraine will afford citizenship to as few as possible, and certainly not to those who've moved in since 2014, and deport those who don't qualify.
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@andersistbesser Odessa is a Ukrainian city. After Russia's terror bombings, I can promise you not even ethnic Russians there have any love for the Kremlin. Russia does not have anywhere close to the offensive power needed to even take Kherson again, much less Odessa.
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@TheNightWatcher1385 fortunately, most Americans don't want to give Putin what he wants, like you do. They prefer assisting a democracy to defend and liberate its lands.
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@TheNightWatcher1385 "Ever since Russia took Crimea hundreds of thousands of Russians have been moving there and building lives. These people are loyal to Russia, not Ukraine. If Ukraine ever took back Crimea they’d have to remove these hundreds of thousands of loyal Russians or risk civil unrest in the region." That's not a problem, they'll do so. No settlers that have moved in since 2014 have a right to stay.
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@domi4587 restricting a large part of global grain exports will raise prices globally and the ones who will get less are the ones who can't afford the increased prices. I.e. mostly Africans. Doesn't matter exactly what the bilateral trade patterns look like, the effect will be the same anyway, since grain are globally traded.
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@mrl2814 "4 days, 500 days, Russia is winning and taking over their territories in a sustained, slow manner." Uhm, no. "Their economy is growing" Uhm, no.
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@TheNightWatcher1385 "Well so far Russia doesn’t seem interested in conquering Kiev at this stage." You mean after they attempted, miserably failed, retreated with a lot of washing machines from massacred people in Bucha, and then focused on the east front with WW1-style warfare and human waves of convicts? "To my eyes they’re trying to secure the breakaway regions and wear Ukraine down until they surrender or just can’t fight anymore." They are desperately trying to keep the occupied territories by mining the h-ll out of them, yes. "So I think if Ukraine just offered to let them keep the conquered regions in exchange for ending hostilities and keeping their current coastline" The current coastline is not in any way threatened by Russia and they have zero abilities to take more. So it would only be in exchange for ending hostilities. "Russia would be willing to negotiate as they’ve already lost more men in 1 year than America lost in 19 years in Vietnam." Yes, for sure Putin would jump at that possibility, because it's way, way better than he could otherwise dream of. He'll be lucky if he can keep his regime stable and keep the Russian Empire from disintegrating at this point.
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@thaneofwhiterun3562 "But eventually they'll wear them down enough that they can march on Kiev and force a surrender." Ukraine is wearing Russia down, not the other way around.
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@TheNightWatcher1385 "My position is that ending the war now is best for both sides. Ukraine would get to keep its remaining coastline crucial to" The coastline not under threat/risk at all, so that's not a positive outcome for Ukraine. You're making up a positive bargaining chip that isn't there. "Russia would be able to save face by having secured the breakaway regions and not have to sacrifice the 100,000+ KIA it’d likely require to take all of Ukraine." Russia cannot take all of Ukraine by throwing any amount of Russians at it. They would just be slaughtered trying. So you're suggesting that Russia gets rewarded with the currently occupied territories and Ukraine gets nothing but a humiliating moral defeat and no justice after spilling so much blood. They won't accept that.
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@Really250 "1) Crimea is never going back to Ukraine." Yes it is. "2) the best deal was offered to them in March of 22, but Nato blew up that deal." There's no proof NATO interfered. "3) Russia is winning the west by there own admission cant not keep supplying military aid as they are running out of supplies and they have not and can't ramp out production." Of course we in the west can and do ramp our production. In the end, 140 million poor people won't outproduce and out-research 1 billion rich people. "4) If Ukraine continues this war, they will have killed off a significant portion of their working aged men, meaning it will be extremely hard to restart their economy. Also like 6 or 8 million of their people left and it is highly unlikely that they will ever come back." Women and children who are the ones who fled will want to return to their families and communities.
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@mrobocop1666 "Russia produces more artillery shells(450k month against US 20k month)" Proof please. "Also war if attrition require many resources" Feel free to believe 140 million poor people will outproduce 1 billion rich people.
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@Pythoner "The existing Crimean population is plenty loyal enough to Russia, nevermind the Russians who have moved there over the last 9 years." The Russians who've moved there will be expelled.
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@seadfacic2924 Russia has lost Odessa forever. No vacations there, no occupation, no nothing. Just forget about it, it's not negotiable nor militarily reachable for Russia.
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@hotcamui remember Bandera declared an Ukrainian state and was immediately imprisoned by the nazis for it. But it doesn't matter, Ukraine exists now and its identity in opposition to Russia is being forged in blood as we speak.
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@NixonThr336ix "right Russia fought 10 months to take Bakhmut but will allow Ukraine to keep Odessa" Dude, are you insane? Russia fought 10 months to take Bakhmut and only got it because Ukraine allowed it. But you think it's in Russia's power to cross the Dniepr and take Odessa?
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@NixonThr336ix agree that Königsberg is Germany! It might be part of the peace settlement for this war. Then Germany could help Russia pay reparations.
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@lucianraphael9527 it's not ethnic cleansing to deport illegal settlers and let collaborators flee. You're coping hard by your "but, but but eThNiC ClEaNsInG". Let it rest already.
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@Really250 "there has been lots of fighting aged males that left Ukraine for the west not just women and children" No, very, very few. "Also those women and children will be able to sponsor their male relatives to come over to the west." They'll go back, and a lot of them already have.
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@Really250 "1) no Crimea is never going back. That is now sovereign Russian territory, the people of Crimea voted to be apart of Russia, and the Russian Duma voted to except it." Yes, but why do you think any of that matters? Crimea will be conquered by Ukraine, collaborators will flee and people who weren't residents and citizens 2014 will be deported. According to international law, Crimea is still Ukraine. Russia will never get sanctions relief while holding on to Ukrainian territory, unless there's a negotiated settlement that Ukraine willingly enters into. "2) it is widely reported and being confirmed that Boris Johnson the EX PM of GP went to Ukraine and blew up the peace deal." Yes, it's widely reported and confirmed in Russian propaganda circles. It's not accepted as fact by serious, legit pundits. "3) Again it is has been widely reported by US generals that they are running out of ammo, hence why they are sending cluster munitions." Yes, agreed, but it's also a fact that ammo production is ramping up and that Ukraine is using ammo much more judiciously to much greater effect, and that Ukrainian counter-battery fire is far superior and is now kindof genociding Russian artillery. The cluster-munitions is a stop-gap effort, and as time goes by, the scales will tip more and more in Ukrainian favor. 140 million poor people won't long-term be able to outproduce 1 billion rich people. "4) while Ukraine should be one of rhe most wealthy countries in the world it is not because it is the most corrupt country in Europe." After Russia, yes, and the reason it's that corrupt is partly the lingering influence of Russian-style oligarchy. It is improving as we speak, and will keep improving. War and patriotism actually helps in that regard. "All of those people who left to live in Canada and the EU and the US are never ever ever ever ever coming back. They make more money in those countries, they have better lives in those countries and they deal with less corruption in those countries. Maybe like 1% to 5% will go back." You're assuming they will get citizenship and won't want to go back to their families and communities and help rebuild. I think you're wrong and that 50%+ will go back.
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@krepkiy001 you'll have to move to Russia to live in Russia. Lugansk is Ukraine. Sorry, but that's just the way it is.
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@NixonThr336ix yes, Ukraine made Russia fight for every inch of Bakhmut, but it also retreated methodically while building up enormous reserves for the counter-offensive. Bakhmut was a meat grinder and fixing operation for Ukraine, and it timed the withdrawal to the spring/summer offensive's start. Ukraine won't similarly gradually retreat to eventually give Russia Odessa while building up reserves for something else.
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@thaneofwhiterun3562 "Russia, though it has a rather feeble economy (comparatively speaking to the US for example), it has a very strong local arms industry." This is not that clear to me. Russia seems desperate in fishing for artillery shells in Belarus, North Korea, Myanmar and so forth. And the rate of artillery destruction is astonishing due to Ukraine's apparent counter-battery fire superiority. Russia is losing stuff at a rate much higher than production. "Ukraine has lost 30% of the equipment sent to it" This is afaik based on misinterpretations. "Mexican cartels are already shooting guns meant for Ukraine at Mexican soldiers" And this is typical Russian propaganda. "And was losing more ammo than it could spare at Bakhmut." Ukraine used ammo extremely frugally in Bakhmut while building up resources and reserves for the counter-offensive. "Compare that to their lack in terms of Airpower, and I really do think Russia could win this even if it was a war of attrition." Russia has an advantage in air power, but it's not decisive since Russia needs to stay well behind its own lines to not get shot down. Also the F16s in the fall could tip the scales.
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@krepkiy001 no, Lugansk is Ukraine. If you have ingested enough Russian propaganda to die for Putin and his siloviki, you will be granted that ending. But Ukraine's borders will be restored whether you fight and die or not.
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@Really250 1) Has Ukraine ever exaggerated their need to get more equipment? I think so. Ukraine won't frontal assault Crimea, probably. It'll have it under fire control, take out the bridge and take out supply and hammer military installations and infrastructure. Also as Russia blew the dam, Crimea will keep having little water. 2) Yes, as you say, there's just a coincidence in timing, no evidence. Another coincidence is that the horrors of Bucha were uncovered. And of course, probably Russian demands were too hard to digest for Ukraine even without the extreme situation of distrust that Bucha added. 3. Of course ammo production is ramping up. July 18: The German Bundeswehr has just issued a large-volume order for service and practice artillery ammunition worth around €1.3 billion July: US paying contractor to quietly supply Bulgarian 155mm shells to Ukraine. A $402 million contract suggests the former Soviet-bloc country is now producing NATO-standard artillery rounds July 11: DE&S has placed a significant order for 155mm artillery shells with BAE Systems, which will increase the UK’s stockpile and deliver an eight-fold increase in production capacity. [...]This investment will allow BAE Systems to invest in new and expanded facilities at Glascoed in South Wales, and Washington in Tyne & Wear. December 2022: Major order from a NATO customer: Rheinmetall wins framework contract for 155mm artillery ammunition in the mid three-digit million euro range February 2023: The US Army announced Tuesday that it had awarded $522 million in orders to two companies to manufacture 155 mm artillery ammunition for Ukraine. The orders, officially decided on January 30, went to Northrop Grumman Systems Corp. and Global Military Products Inc. and came amid worries that Ukraine was fast depleting the stockpiles of artillery shells from the United States and other allies. Deliveries of the new ammunition are scheduled to begin in March of this year, the Army said in a statement. February 2023: The Army has selected General Dynamics Ordnance & Tactical Systems [GD] and American Ordnance to compete for orders to produce 155mm artillery rounds under a new $993.8 million contract. Under the deal, officially awarded on Wednesday, the Army said it aims to expand manufacturing capacity of 155mm M795 projectiles to produce an additional 12,000 to 20,000 rounds per month. March 2023: 25 states have signed the European Defence Agency (EDA) project arrangement for the collaborative procurement of ammunition. The project opens the way for EU Member States and Norway to proceed along two paths: a two-year, fast-track procedure for 155mm artillery rounds and a seven-year project to acquire multiple ammunition types. Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Czechia, Estonia, Finland, Spain, France, Germany, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Hungary, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden and Norway have signed. June 2023: WARSAW --- On June 1, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense Mr. Mariusz Błaszczak approved a framework contract for the supply of 155 mm artillery ammunition, with the additional possibility of acquiring various types of 120 mm ammunition. July 2023: Nammo has signed a contract with the Norwegian Defense Materiel Agency (NDMA) to supply 155mm artillery ammunition to enhance the capabilities of the Norwegian Armed Forces. The contract is among the largest for Nammo’s Raufoss facility, and stems from orders announced by the Norwegian government earlier this year. Specifically, the agreement entails the procurement of a significant quantity of 155mm IM HE-ER shells, with a range of some 40 kilometers, Nammo said in a statement. To facilitate production, Nammo has committed investment in new infrastructure, machinery, production hardware, and raw materials in Raufoss. This scratches the surface, it's just a quick googling, not exhaustive by any means. 4) Russia is not less corrupt than Ukraine. 5) Are you a muslim, or why do you argue so misogynistically? Makes little sense. Industrial heartland? Dude, forget about it, Donetsk and Luhansk is depleted and destroyed. If retained by Russia, it will have no advantage in terms of productivity, quite the opposite. Your thinking that Ukraine may not have a coastline after this is done just tells me you're completely fooled by Russian propaganda. Russia stands NO chance of ever getting across the Dniepr again. Of course the West will heavily support Ukrainian rebuild. Your distrust is unwarranted. Take your own advice on writing down predictions and parameter changes! A year ago, when would you have predicted Russia would take Odessa? Russia still hasn't mitigated e.g. HIMARS. Of course there's back and forth in capabilities and adapting to them, but the fact that the US has continuously added more capabilities to Ukraine's arsenal and will keep doing so is hardly a sign of weakness.
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@TheNightWatcher1385 sad to hear your circle is morally stunted, greedy and loving Russian propaganda.
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@Pythoner keep coping. New illegal residents will be expelled.
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@TheNightWatcher1385 yes, it does. Not rewarding Russia and not giving up on the international security order, and not giving up on the support the Ukrainians want does trump your desire to end the war on terms favorable to Russia.
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@АлексейПешков-г8ь sham referendums aren't relevant, and not even legit referendums would be. Russia won't kill the world by nuclear weapons to keep the stolen territories, hopefully, but we'll see.
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@TheNightWatcher1385 idk, Russia will have to make up its mind about that. Russia will get no rest and no sanctions relief until it has left Crimea.
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@sergeykazantsev1 try to step out of the bubble of Russian propaganda for a while. If you do, you'll realize that the aggressor, Russia, will have to pay for the evils it has committed. Lots of you have to go to the Hague to be tried and imprisoned for life, including Putin. And you'll have to pay heavy reparations, demilitarize and deputinize your society.
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@SaucemanSauceman everyone who think Ukraine risks being landlocked are captives of Russian propaganda.
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 @TheNightWatcher1385 why would anyone care that hundreds of thousands of Russians have moved there and "built lives"? You're not making sense.
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