Comments by "jeppen" (@jesan733) on "How many fighter jets does Ukraine need?" video.
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For once I don't agree, Anders. First of all, in a very-high-risk environment such as the Ukraine war, the 2030 perspective is worth next to nothing. Think of it as a discount rate of 20%-ish, and a mundane expected return 7 years from now. 0.8^7 = 0.21. Very little value!
Secondly and more importantly, F16s could be important for next summer's front line combat. Sure, no real close air support can be had by either side. BUT, the question is which country that will be able to, in a stand-off way, shoot down enemy aircraft and anti-air defenses across the front line. This in turn will determine which country that can use long-range anti-armor missiles from rotary and fixed wing aircraft, and which can lobby JDAMs (or the Russian version, FAB) across the front line onto enemy positions. Currently this very limited air dominance belongs to Russia. It would be both militarily and psychologically important if the scales tipped to Russia!
I could be pursuaded that a few dozen of F16s won't tip the scales for Ukraine, for example if the Russian fighters are better at standoff attrition through e.g. its long range air-to-air R-37 missile. But then I think THAT should be argued (if it can even be determined until tried in practice), and then perhaps there should be a high focus on doing something about it. One option then would be to add Swedish Gripen airframes with Meteor integration. I'm not prepared to just throw up my arms and cede this limited air dominance to Russia for this entire war.
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