Comments by "jeppen" (@jesan733) on "The Limits of Russia's War Machine || Peter Zeihan" video.

@vknight7497 why is that unreasonable?
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The Ukrainian general staff reports 451730 casualties for Russia, but that's just what they've been able to observe. Not strange if the's 30% extra that Ukraine hasn't been able to see and report.
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@a.brekkan4965 yeah, I think so. The daily numbers ebb and flow in sync with what we know and what e.g. Oryx have been able to visually confirm. I have no reason to doubt them.
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@a.brekkan4965 sure, but the destroyed equipment numbers have been plausible, and it's reasonable to expect a multiplier of men KIA or WIA per destroyed vehicle. I don't see why Ukraine would lie only about men.
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@a.brekkan4965 again, most data in the Ukrainian losses fit well with what we know. Also manpower losses ebb and flow naturally with what we know about conditions on the battlefield. Thus I think they're plausible. Also, Ukraine is dependent on goodwill, first and foremost, so it's important for Ukraine not to lie to a western audience, because people would feel betrayed and withdraw support. However, for Moscow, lies have been their bread and butter for more than a decade. It makes eminent sense for them to lie now about losses, also to reduce support for Ukraine in the west.
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Yes, Europe is big enough to do that, but not cold-turkey. The US needs to give us 2-3 more years of support. We can probably arrange to pay for it if you're now too stingy to support democracy and freedom. The issue for Europe isn't money, it's actual defense production. The issue for the US isn't money, but that Trump needs Russian support to win the election and thus get out of legal troubles.
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@ron88303 European allies have largely adapted to US strategy in this matter. The US wanted to be dominant, it wanted weak and peaceful Germany and Japan after WW2 and later. It wanted non-proliferation with a US nuclear umbrella instead. And so on. I think it's real TDS to accept Trump's narrative that Europe isn't "paying" and that this is somehow wrong. Yeah, of course it might be time to change allies' strategy and posture, but it should be done responsibly and gradually, not forcing it by throwing the world into utter chaos and letting Russia destroy a big allied democracy it promised to protect. You putting democracy and freedom within citation marks explains your comment.
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@GardeningforFreedom are you a muslim?
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Ukrainian count of Russian casualties is 450k, but they've probably not been able to see 30% (some of which is Russians wounding and killing each other). And then it's 600k.
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Why not? Just by age increases they have 1.5-2 million new men becoming eligible for service during that time.
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Well, if Russia loses 250k/year and their young male population is on the order of 750k/year, they need to be prepared to sacrifice 1/3 of each annual cohort in steady-state.
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