Comments by "jeppen" (@jesan733) on "Ukraine, Russia, and Nukes - Question Time with Peter Zeihan: Episode 1" video.

@davidpnewton Chernobyl put 400 times more radioactive material into the Earth's atmosphere than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. I don't think Russia will do it, but I think that if they do, they'd take weather patterns into consideration and make sure the wind goes toward the west. Its use would make NATO intervene regardless of plume direction.
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Disagree. They wouldn't fire them off in panic, they'd wait for the right weather patterns to make sure the fallout go toward Ukrainian positions and cities.
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Why? It's fairly clear that Russia is very careful to not strike NATO territory or manned assets. They did attack a drone over the black sea, but even that they harassed rather than fired upon.
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Please explain. E.g. there's a supermajority that wants to vote for the Ukraine support, but the republican speaker (a Trump puppet) is refusing to schedule a vote.
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There are strong bipartisan majorities for lots of things, including support to Ukraine, but the current speaker of the House is a nobody that sits there at the pleasure of Trump, and Trump wants him to block things so he does.
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@Niko_Ly Israel support is part of the current foreign aid bill that speaker Johnson is blocking.
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@MrToubrouk I don't agree. I think Russia plans quite a bit and is actually quite careful even as it makes bad decisions that sometimes seem reckless. It takes time for Putin to make decisions, like e.g. mobilization, or blowing up that dam.
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@davidpnewton measurable fallout spreads pretty much everywhere, but of course Ireland didn't get significant fallout from Chernobyl. A 45 kt weapon set on ground burst according to nukemap gives a fallout contour for 1 rads per hr: Maximum downwind fallout distance: 159 km. So that's not so much. OTOH, there will be panic regardless how little that reaches the west. We love nuclear panic.
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I understand that sentiment, but the government is now unable to respond to crises, so the southern border is left open and Ukrainian heroes are dying needlessly while the US' geopolitical standing is being shot to pieces, among other things.
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@HankSemoreButz it's not the "hard" faction, it's the soft spineless puppet faction bowing to Trump and Putin.
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@davidpnewton it's trivially true that fallout will be patchy due to rain, and that it will reach the entire southern hemisphere eventually. But Ireland did not get health-significant fallout from Chernobyl and Romania wouldn't get health-significant fallout from a tactical nuke on Ukraine's front line. The "hotspots" wouldn't be hot enough to be significant.
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@davidanon1568 ah, didn't Ritter and Macgregor tell you that Ukrainian counter-artillery is completely superior? What a surprise.
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@bloodgout fallout patterns are complex, but of course most of it and the really high concentrations will be deposited fairly soon based on lower altitude winds in a cigar-shaped plume in the prevailing wind direction.
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@nicoles9077 problem is that what you're saying simply isn't true. The fact is that Trump wants the border unsolved until the election, so Ukraine isn't really used as extortion. So Ukrainian heroes are dying because Trump wants that, and border legislation isn't enacted because Trump blocks that too.
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@nicoles9077 Trump wants the border issue to remain to campaign on it, so it's simply not correct that Ukraine is used to extort democrats and Biden to do something about the border. Trump is blocking all such bills for different reasons.
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@davidanon1568 " they hammer Ukraine accurately on a daily basis and yes almost all the missiles get through" So you're saying that all these apartment buildings were intentionally bombed? It's not that they use wildly inaccurate missiles? Nice. And almost all missiles get through, so all the films we see of Russian missiles being shot down are fake, and the consistent reports that most missiles are shot down are also fake? Thanks Ivan for the info.
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