Comments by "Arty" (@arty5876) on "Is Putin Still a Military Superpower? - TLDR News" video.
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Apparently Putin overestimated his army, underestimated the enemy, and judging by his words from the appeals of February 24, Putin called on Ukrainian soldiers to "surrender or take power into their own hands," apparently Putin thought that the Ukrainian population was dissatisfied with their government, and that Russian soldiers would be greeted with flowers. And apparently we haven't actually prepared for the war. At the beginning of the war, there were cases when unarmed police units of the Russian Guard attacked first and were defeated by Ukrainian troops. Already at the beginning of March, the Russian army had troubles with supplies. The size of the invasion force is too low for the tasks set. And apparently Putin's calculation was that there would be no war, Ukrainian soldiers would surrender without a fight, and all of Ukraine would be taken in 3 days like Crimea, without a fight. All sorts of propagandists and pro-Kremlin analysts said about it. And Putin apparently thought that a quick, lightning-fast seizure of Ukraine would not provoke Finland and Sweden to join NATO, besides, they would be afraid of the fate of Ukraine, and such serious sanctions against Russia would not be imposed. Apparently Putin's plan is just the stupidest geopolitical adventure, probably the most adventurous adventure in history, he just put absolutely everything on the line. Even the gold and foreign exchange reserves were not withdrawn from foreign accounts and they were frozen. Putin just put everything on the line and lost it. That's the kind of strategist he makes.
Putin thought that if he could quickly seize Ukraine, Finland and Sweden would not join NATO, and serious sanctions would not be imposed against Russia. But the reality is that Ukraine has become a trap and the Russian army is bogged down, and Russia will now lose half of the economy, and the very goals of the operation - the non-expansion of NATO, are crossed out by Finland and Sweden.
In short, Putin is a misunderstood genius, no one could predict his actions, because he always acts to his own detriment and creates absurdity
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Russians had invaded Ukraine without numerical superiority, while Ukraine is the largest land millitary in Europe after Russia. Ukraine have far more tanks, than Germany, Poland, Britain or France. If the quality of troops is equal, according to the law of millitary science attacking side is suffering more casualities.
The major 3 reasons, why Russian invasion had failed in first few weeks:
1) Joung Russian conscript soldiers aren't motivated to fight against brother Slavic people, a lot of Russians have relatives in Ukraine, probably some Russian soldiers have relarives in Ukraine (Millitary crimes probably were commited by soldiers of Asian and Islamic nationalities or by Russian police forces, not by Russian troops of Slavic nationality, I heard that Bucha massacre was commited by Chechen troops) . Russian soldiers are mentally and morally supressed, most of Russians don't want to fight this war, some Russians don't want to fight against brother Slavic people. Opposite - Ukrainians have moral boom, they are fighting for their homeland, and Ukrainians aren't seeing Russians as brothers anymore.
2) Russian command probably believed in its own propaganda, and commanders in Kremlin were thinking, that they would take all of Ukraine in 3 days without resistance, and Russian troops would be met with flowers. And Russian command simply didn't prepared for a war - Russians didn't planned, that they would face the resistance, they thought that they would take all of Ukraine in 3 days, like they took Crimea in 2014, and this is why Russians had poor logistics and preparation in first weeks of the war. Russians were invading Ukraine by moving in columns, very dangerous for ambushes.
But at now, after 3 months since the start of war, Russians probably have normal logistics and normal amount of material, at now, in the May of 2022, there is no evidences that Russians have problems with logistics, so at now this problem is irrelevant, but in the start of the war Russians really had problems with logistics and this played the role.
Russia have a population of 146 million people, while Ukraine have the population of 40 million. The life standarts, economy and corruption in Russia and Ukraine are in the same level, but Ukraine was fighting a Donbass war, and Ukrainians probably worked on corruption in their army, and also Ukrainian army was trained by Western specialists. Also, Ukrainians have modern Western anti-tank weapons and drones, but Russians also have such thing as air superiority and air-land and ballistic rockets. But aircrafts and rockets need aim. Also, Russia have superiority in amount of artillery. Russians have unteached radio crews and bad communication, but a lot of Ukrainian coscript regiments also have such problems. Conscripts, both Russian and Ukrainian, are unable to cipher frequency on their radio and they have awful quality of sound.
3) Also, the 3rd major reason of Russian failure is conscript system. Russia have very low salaries in army compared to life standarts in Russia, so Russian contract army is very unpopular in Russia, and no one wants to serve in it, except some poor provincial people, who didn't achieved anything in their life. So, Russia have the conscript army, where the 18-year old guys, that ended school yesterday, are serving for one year - in Russia one year military service means that you would be "trained" for 6 months, and later you would "serve" in military base for 6 months. You can't make the good soldier from 18 year old boy in 1 year. During Soviet times people were serving in army for 2 years, and Soviet government was working on health of boys in school period. Ukraine also have conscripts, but Ukrainian army is more contract, contract army means that adult 30-year old man are serving in the army volunturely. Who is better soldier - an 18 year old boy, that was serving for 1 year, or adult 30 years old man, that was serving in army for few years? Of course Russian untrained and joung conscripts completely useless against adult 30-years old Ukrainian contract soldiers, who were serving the army for years, while Russian contract soldiers are simply poor provincial people, who serve in army for low salary, and government isn't paying attention to them as to professional soldiers, but as to cheap cannon fodder. De facto the reason why salaries in the Russian army are so low is because Russian government use poor provincials as cheap cannon fodder. Russia don't have professional army, and Russian defense ministry knows about this. Some parts of Ukrainian army are also conscript and uncapable to fight. I chated with some Ukrainians, and saw video, that was made by Ukrainian soldiers - Ukrainian conscripts are also untrained and uncapable. But Ukraine have part of its army as contract soldiers, while Russia don't have normal contract troops.
After 3 weeks Russians had stopped their invasion, they retreated from Kyiv, Chernigiv and Sumy, and replaced their troops with target of reinforcing and forming the frontline in the Donbass region, they made a pause. Russians are dasapointed of their first plan, and they refused it. This means that Russians aren't targeting occupation of all Ukraine no more, Russians refused their goal to occupie all of Ukraine, and at now fighting would go only in the East and South of Ukraine. From the middle of April Russians were trying to capture East of Ukraine. Also, because war wasn't declared, and Putin didn't even call this a war, there is no mobilization in Russia. After 3 months from the start of war Russia still didn't started the mobilization. Probably Ukrainian side already have serious numerical superiority over the Russian side, and Russians are unable to capture more Ukrainian land without serious and bloody fighting. This is the reason why Russians had removed their forces from Kyiv. Russian assault on Donbass is going on with very low speed, and it is failed, because you can provide operation of encerclement of enemy troops only if this operation in going very fast. Russians lost their top 2 naval cruiser, fighting a country without a fleet.
I don't think that Ukraine would agree to peace. Putin made a mistake invading Ukraine, Russians don't have opportunity to achieve something withput mobilization and declaration of real war. In Russia at now people are afraid that Putin would announce massive mobilization, because this is the only way by which Russia could won, because Russian troops at now outnumbered in Ukraine. But this decision would also face problems - Ukraine started mobilization earlier, Ukrainian forces at now gaining experience of fighting, Ukrainians already have some experience of fighting. And if Putin would declare mobilization in Russia, very fast mobilized and untrained Russian conscripts would face Ukrainians soldiers, that already have combat experience. And this is problem. But Putin don't have choise, Ukraine wouldn't agree to a peace threaty. Also, because Russia didn't started mobilization and Russian troops are outnumbered, Russian army is suffering enormous casualities in tanks and vehicles, because tanks and vehicles are dependent on infantry suppourt and covering fire, and Ukrainians, having numerical superiority, ambush tactics and modern Western anti-tank weapons, are able to cause huge casualities to Russian vehicles. Russia have artillery and air superiority, so Russia is capable to cause casualities and damage to Ukrainian forces and infrastructure. So, without mobilization Putin is teaching Ukrainian army and disarming Russian forces, but in Russia even Putin suppourters wouldn't suppourt the mobilization. Putin really don't have normal exits from this situation, Ukraine became complete trap.
I think that casuality ratio between Russia and Ukraine is ~1.5 to 1 in favour of Ukraine.
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Russians had invaded Ukraine without numerical superiority, while Ukraine is the largest land millitary in Europe after Russia. Ukraine have far more tanks, than Germany, Poland, Britain or France. If the quality of troops is equal, according to the law of millitary science attacking side is suffering more casualities.
The major 3 reasons, why Russian invasion had failed in first few weeks:
1) Joung Russian conscript soldiers aren't motivated to fight against brother Slavic people, a lot of Russians have relatives in Ukraine, probably some Russian soldiers have relarives in Ukraine (Millitary crimes probably were commited by soldiers of Asian and Islamic nationalities or by Russian police forces, not by Russian troops of Slavic nationality, I heard that Bucha massacre was commited by Chechen troops) . Russian soldiers are mentally and morally supressed, most of Russians don't want to fight this war, some Russians don't want to fight against brother Slavic people. Opposite - Ukrainians have moral boom, they are fighting for their homeland, and Ukrainians aren't seeing Russians as brothers anymore.
2) Russian command probably believed in its own propaganda, and commanders in Kremlin were thinking, that they would take all of Ukraine in 3 days without resistance, and Russian troops would be met with flowers. And Russian command simply didn't prepared for a war - Russians didn't planned, that they would face the resistance, they thought that they would take all of Ukraine in 3 days, like they took Crimea in 2014, and this is why Russians had poor logistics and preparation in first weeks of the war. Russians were invading Ukraine by moving in columns, very dangerous for ambushes.
But at now, after 3 months since the start of war, Russians probably have normal logistics and normal amount of material, at now, in the May of 2022, there is no evidences that Russians have problems with logistics, so at now this problem is irrelevant, but in the start of the war Russians really had problems with logistics and this played the role.
Russia have a population of 146 million people, while Ukraine have the population of 40 million. The life standarts, economy and corruption in Russia and Ukraine are in the same level, but Ukraine was fighting a Donbass war, and Ukrainians probably worked on corruption in their army, and also Ukrainian army was trained by Western specialists. Also, Ukrainians have modern Western anti-tank weapons and drones, but Russians also have such thing as air superiority and air-land and ballistic rockets. But aircrafts and rockets need aim. Also, Russia have superiority in amount of artillery. Russians have unteached radio crews and bad communication, but a lot of Ukrainian coscript regiments also have such problems. Conscripts, both Russian and Ukrainian, are unable to cipher frequency on their radio and they have awful quality of sound.
3) Also, the 3rd major reason of Russian failure is conscript system. Russia have very low salaries in army compared to life standarts in Russia, so Russian contract army is very unpopular in Russia, and no one wants to serve in it, except some poor provincial people, who didn't achieved anything in their life. So, Russia have the conscript army, where the 18-year old guys, that ended school yesterday, are serving for one year - in Russia one year military service means that you would be "trained" for 6 months, and later you would "serve" in military base for 6 months. You can't make the good soldier from 18 year old boy in 1 year. During Soviet times people were serving in army for 2 years, and Soviet government was working on health of boys in school period. Ukraine also have conscripts, but Ukrainian army is more contract, contract army means that adult 30-year old man are serving in the army volunturely. Who is better soldier - an 18 year old boy, that was serving for 1 year, or adult 30 years old man, that was serving in army for few years? Of course Russian untrained and joung conscripts completely useless against adult 30-years old Ukrainian contract soldiers, who were serving the army for years, while Russian contract soldiers are simply poor provincial people, who serve in army for low salary, and government isn't paying attention to them as to professional soldiers, but as to cheap cannon fodder. De facto the reason why salaries in the Russian army are so low is because Russian government use poor provincials as cheap cannon fodder. Russia don't have professional army, and Russian defense ministry knows about this. Some parts of Ukrainian army are also conscript and uncapable to fight. I chated with some Ukrainians, and saw video, that was made by Ukrainian soldiers - Ukrainian conscripts are also untrained and uncapable. But Ukraine have part of its army as contract soldiers, while Russia don't have normal contract troops.
After 3 weeks Russians had stopped their invasion, they retreated from Kyiv, Chernigiv and Sumy, and replaced their troops with target of reinforcing and forming the frontline in the Donbass region, they made a pause. Russians are dasapointed of their first plan, and they refused it. This means that Russians aren't targeting occupation of all Ukraine no more, Russians refused their goal to occupie all of Ukraine, and at now fighting would go only in the East and South of Ukraine. From the middle of April Russians were trying to capture East of Ukraine. Also, because war wasn't declared, and Putin didn't even call this a war, there is no mobilization in Russia. After 3 months from the start of war Russia still didn't started the mobilization. Probably Ukrainian side already have serious numerical superiority over the Russian side, and Russians are unable to capture more Ukrainian land without serious and bloody fighting. This is the reason why Russians had removed their forces from Kyiv. Russian assault on Donbass is going on with very low speed, and it is failed, because you can provide operation of encerclement of enemy troops only if this operation in going very fast. Russians lost their top 2 naval cruiser, fighting a country without a fleet.
I don't think that Ukraine would agree to peace. Putin made a mistake invading Ukraine, Russians don't have opportunity to achieve something withput mobilization and declaration of real war. In Russia at now people are afraid that Putin would announce massive mobilization, because this is the only way by which Russia could won, because Russian troops at now outnumbered in Ukraine. But this decision would also face problems - Ukraine started mobilization earlier, Ukrainian forces at now gaining experience of fighting, Ukrainians already have some experience of fighting. And if Putin would declare mobilization in Russia, very fast mobilized and untrained Russian conscripts would face Ukrainians soldiers, that already have combat experience. And this is problem. But Putin don't have choise, Ukraine wouldn't agree to a peace threaty. Also, because Russia didn't started mobilization and Russian troops are outnumbered, Russian army is suffering enormous casualities in tanks and vehicles, because tanks and vehicles are dependent on infantry suppourt and covering fire, and Ukrainians, having numerical superiority, ambush tactics and modern Western anti-tank weapons, are able to cause huge casualities to Russian vehicles. Russia have artillery and air superiority, so Russia is capable to cause casualities and damage to Ukrainian forces and infrastructure. So, without mobilization Putin is teaching Ukrainian army and disarming Russian forces, but in Russia even Putin suppourters wouldn't suppourt the mobilization. Putin really don't have normal exits from this situation, Ukraine became complete trap.
I think that casuality ratio between Russia and Ukraine is ~1.5 to 1 in favour of Ukraine.
1
-
1
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Apparently Putin overestimated his army, underestimated the enemy, and judging by his words from the appeals of February 24, Putin called on Ukrainian soldiers to "surrender or take power into their own hands," apparently Putin thought that the Ukrainian population was dissatisfied with their government, and that Russian soldiers would be greeted with flowers. And apparently we haven't actually prepared for the war. At the beginning of the war, there were cases when unarmed police units of the Russian Guard attacked first and were defeated by Ukrainian troops. Already at the beginning of March, the Russian army had troubles with supplies. The size of the invasion force is too low for the tasks set. And apparently Putin's calculation was that there would be no war, Ukrainian soldiers would surrender without a fight, and all of Ukraine would be taken in 3 days like Crimea, without a fight. All sorts of propagandists and pro-Kremlin analysts said about it. And Putin apparently thought that a quick, lightning-fast seizure of Ukraine would not provoke Finland and Sweden to join NATO, besides, they would be afraid of the fate of Ukraine, and such serious sanctions against Russia would not be imposed. Apparently Putin's plan is just the stupidest geopolitical adventure, probably the most adventurous adventure in history, he just put absolutely everything on the line. Even the gold and foreign exchange reserves were not withdrawn from foreign accounts and they were frozen. Putin just put everything on the line and lost it. That's the kind of strategist he makes.
Putin thought that if he could quickly seize Ukraine, Finland and Sweden would not join NATO, and serious sanctions would not be imposed against Russia. But the reality is that Ukraine has become a trap and the Russian army is bogged down, and Russia will now lose half of the economy, and the very goals of the operation - the non-expansion of NATO, are crossed out by Finland and Sweden.
In short, Putin is a misunderstood genius, no one could predict his actions, because he always acts to his own detriment and creates absurdity
1
-
Russians had invaded Ukraine without numerical superiority, while Ukraine is the largest land millitary in Europe after Russia. Ukraine have far more tanks, than Germany, Poland, Britain or France. If the quality of troops is equal, according to the law of millitary science attacking side is suffering more casualities.
The major 3 reasons, why Russian invasion had failed in first few weeks:
1) Joung Russian conscript soldiers aren't motivated to fight against brother Slavic people, a lot of Russians have relatives in Ukraine, probably some Russian soldiers have relarives in Ukraine (Millitary crimes probably were commited by soldiers of Asian and Islamic nationalities or by Russian police forces, not by Russian troops of Slavic nationality, I heard that Bucha massacre was commited by Chechen troops) . Russian soldiers are mentally and morally supressed, most of Russians don't want to fight this war, some Russians don't want to fight against brother Slavic people. Opposite - Ukrainians have moral boom, they are fighting for their homeland, and Ukrainians aren't seeing Russians as brothers anymore.
2) Russian command probably believed in its own propaganda, and commanders in Kremlin were thinking, that they would take all of Ukraine in 3 days without resistance, and Russian troops would be met with flowers. And Russian command simply didn't prepared for a war - Russians didn't planned, that they would face the resistance, they thought that they would take all of Ukraine in 3 days, like they took Crimea in 2014, and this is why Russians had poor logistics and preparation in first weeks of the war. Russians were invading Ukraine by moving in columns, very dangerous for ambushes.
But at now, after 3 months since the start of war, Russians probably have normal logistics and normal amount of material, at now, in the May of 2022, there is no evidences that Russians have problems with logistics, so at now this problem is irrelevant, but in the start of the war Russians really had problems with logistics and this played the role.
Russia have a population of 146 million people, while Ukraine have the population of 40 million. The life standarts, economy and corruption in Russia and Ukraine are in the same level, but Ukraine was fighting a Donbass war, and Ukrainians probably worked on corruption in their army, and also Ukrainian army was trained by Western specialists. Also, Ukrainians have modern Western anti-tank weapons and drones, but Russians also have such thing as air superiority and air-land and ballistic rockets. But aircrafts and rockets need aim. Also, Russia have superiority in amount of artillery. Russians have unteached radio crews and bad communication, but a lot of Ukrainian coscript regiments also have such problems. Conscripts, both Russian and Ukrainian, are unable to cipher frequency on their radio and they have awful quality of sound.
3) Also, the 3rd major reason of Russian failure is conscript system. Russia have very low salaries in army compared to life standarts in Russia, so Russian contract army is very unpopular in Russia, and no one wants to serve in it, except some poor provincial people, who didn't achieved anything in their life. So, Russia have the conscript army, where the 18-year old guys, that ended school yesterday, are serving for one year - in Russia one year military service means that you would be "trained" for 6 months, and later you would "serve" in military base for 6 months. You can't make the good soldier from 18 year old boy in 1 year. During Soviet times people were serving in army for 2 years, and Soviet government was working on health of boys in school period. Ukraine also have conscripts, but Ukrainian army is more contract, contract army means that adult 30-year old man are serving in the army volunturely. Who is better soldier - an 18 year old boy, that was serving for 1 year, or adult 30 years old man, that was serving in army for few years? Of course Russian untrained and joung conscripts completely useless against adult 30-years old Ukrainian contract soldiers, who were serving the army for years, while Russian contract soldiers are simply poor provincial people, who serve in army for low salary, and government isn't paying attention to them as to professional soldiers, but as to cheap cannon fodder. De facto the reason why salaries in the Russian army are so low is because Russian government use poor provincials as cheap cannon fodder. Russia don't have professional army, and Russian defense ministry knows about this. Some parts of Ukrainian army are also conscript and uncapable to fight. I chated with some Ukrainians, and saw video, that was made by Ukrainian soldiers - Ukrainian conscripts are also untrained and uncapable. But Ukraine have part of its army as contract soldiers, while Russia don't have normal contract troops.
After 3 weeks Russians had stopped their invasion, they retreated from Kyiv, Chernigiv and Sumy, and replaced their troops with target of reinforcing and forming the frontline in the Donbass region, they made a pause. Russians are dasapointed of their first plan, and they refused it. This means that Russians aren't targeting occupation of all Ukraine no more, Russians refused their goal to occupie all of Ukraine, and at now fighting would go only in the East and South of Ukraine. From the middle of April Russians were trying to capture East of Ukraine. Also, because war wasn't declared, and Putin didn't even call this a war, there is no mobilization in Russia. After 3 months from the start of war Russia still didn't started the mobilization. Probably Ukrainian side already have serious numerical superiority over the Russian side, and Russians are unable to capture more Ukrainian land without serious and bloody fighting. This is the reason why Russians had removed their forces from Kyiv. Russian assault on Donbass is going on with very low speed, and it is failed, because you can provide operation of encerclement of enemy troops only if this operation in going very fast. Russians lost their top 2 naval cruiser, fighting a country without a fleet.
I don't think that Ukraine would agree to peace. Putin made a mistake invading Ukraine, Russians don't have opportunity to achieve something withput mobilization and declaration of real war. In Russia at now people are afraid that Putin would announce massive mobilization, because this is the only way by which Russia could won, because Russian troops at now outnumbered in Ukraine. But this decision would also face problems - Ukraine started mobilization earlier, Ukrainian forces at now gaining experience of fighting, Ukrainians already have some experience of fighting. And if Putin would declare mobilization in Russia, very fast mobilized and untrained Russian conscripts would face Ukrainians soldiers, that already have combat experience. And this is problem. But Putin don't have choise, Ukraine wouldn't agree to a peace threaty. Also, because Russia didn't started mobilization and Russian troops are outnumbered, Russian army is suffering enormous casualities in tanks and vehicles, because tanks and vehicles are dependent on infantry suppourt and covering fire, and Ukrainians, having numerical superiority, ambush tactics and modern Western anti-tank weapons, are able to cause huge casualities to Russian vehicles. Russia have artillery and air superiority, so Russia is capable to cause casualities and damage to Ukrainian forces and infrastructure. So, without mobilization Putin is teaching Ukrainian army and disarming Russian forces, but in Russia even Putin suppourters wouldn't suppourt the mobilization. Putin really don't have normal exits from this situation, Ukraine became complete trap.
I think that casuality ratio between Russia and Ukraine is ~1.5 to 1 in favour of Ukraine.
1
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1