Comments by "Arty" (@arty5876) on "Willy OAM"
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War is a very expensive and financially costly business. You need a lot of money to supply troops by ammo and equipment, you need a strong economy. Wars are won by economics and logistics, not arrows on the map. Ukraine is a poor corrupt post-Soviet country. Ukraine is the most corrupt country in Europe, if we don't count Russia as a European country. Corruption and poverty was everywhere in Ukraine even before the war started. And when the war actuallu started, Ukraine's economy simply collapsed as a result of migration and mobilization. The Ukrainian economy has suffered much more from the war, than the Russian economy suffered from sanctions. Without the financial assistance of the West, Ukraine would have been defeated a long time ago.
For the last 15 months, West provided Ukraine with about 200 billion euros of financial assistance. These are six annual state budgets of Ukraine. Three annual budgets (72 months) of the country for 15 months of 2022-23. 25 Ukrainian military budgets. Before the war, in 2021, for example, Ukraine spent about 8 billion euros on the army, about 20% of the state budget. In last 15 months, Ukraine was allocated 200 billion euros of financial assistance. Without this help, Ukraine would not be able to wage war for economic reasons, and Russian tanks would have been in Odessa and Kyiv for a long time. If not for the financial assistance of the West, Ukraine would have capitulated in the summer of 2022.
And Russia, in fact, is not fighting against Ukraine. Russia is fighting against the entire Western Bloc.
As for arms supplies, they amount to about $50 billion. Russia spent so much money before the war on rearmament of the army in 5 years. Ukraine has exhausted its reserves of Soviet artillery ammunition and is now fighting with American artillery and American ammunition. Without these American guns, Ukraine would have no guns at all. At the same time, Ukraine fires several times less ammunition every day than Russia. And even so, Britain, the USA and Poland do not have enough production capacity to provide the AFU. Their production is lower than consumption. If it were not for the support of the West, Russia would have already captured the whole of Ukraine twice.
In 2023 West increased the scale of military assistance to Ukraine. Without this help, Ukraine
would have been defeated a long time ago, and one cannot say that allegedly "Russia cannot defeat one weak Ukraine." Because Russia is fighting not only against Ukraine, but against Ukraine with huge support from the West, and this support, from an economic point of view, many times exceeds the capabilities of the Russian economy.
The reason for all the failures and defeats of the Russian army is the insufficient initial number of troops. On February 24, 2022, when the war began, Russia fielded only about 100 thousand soldiers against Ukraine. Plus several tens of thousands of soldiers from the DPR and LPR. There were about 150 thousand soldiers in Ukraine already on the first day of the war. That is, at the beginning of the war, the number of the two armies was comparable. And as you know, a numerical advantage of at least one and a half times is needed for a successful offensive. Ukraine began to mobilize already on the first day of the war. In the first two months of the war, the Russian army was still able to move somewhere, but over time the Russian offensive stalled, due to the fact that Ukraine had been mobilizing since the first day of the war, and the number of the Ukrainian army was growing every day. The Russian offensive is bogged down by superior Ukrainian numbers. In the first seven months, Russia fought against Ukraine with a relatively small contingent of contract soldiers, without conscripts and without mobilization. Thanks to the numerical superiority that the APU accumulated during the 7 months of the war, the APU was able to launch a successful offensive in September 2022. But the Ukrainian army won stupidly due to numerical superiority. In other words, it's not an equal fight. In equal conditions, the Russian army demonstrated a much higher combat capability in March 2022. As of mid-April 2022, the Russians have seized territory in Ukraine the size of England. Do not forget that the Ukrainian army is much stronger than the French, German or British army. Ukraine on February 24, 2022 had ~ 150 thousand soldiers and 1000 tanks, the AFU is the largest army in Europe. For comparison, Britain in 2021 had about 70 thousand soldiers and 200 tanks. Germany has 80,000 soldiers and 400 tanks, and France had 120,000 soldiers and 600 tanks in 2021. As of February 24, 2022, the Ukrainian army was the most numerous and mechanized in all of Europe, not counting the Russian army.
It is quite easy to defeat the Russian army when Russia is fighting without mobilization, when Russia is fighting without conscripts, when Russia is fighting with a limited contingent of 100 thousand soldiers, and you already have a comparable army on the first day of the war, and you are mobilizing from the first day of the war, and the West also gives you unlimited resources to wage war. Unlimited amount of money, a huge amount of weapons. And in the end, despite all these weapons, despite all this help, despite the numerical superiority of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia still wins in the end - 60% of the Kherson region, half of the Zaporozhye region, 80% of the Luhansk region have been occupied by Russia since February 24, 2022 and Russia holds this territory against Western tanks and tens of billions of US dollars as military aid.
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@damn6 do you mean to say that a small detachment of several hundred Russians under the leadership of Strelkov created a front tens of kilometers long in a matter of days and occupied a third of the Donetsk region in 2014?
This is impossible. There was an uprising in the Donbas in 2014. This uprising was raised by local population. This is the will of the people. Russia really helped them, but nothing more.
It is impossible to arrange a revolution artifically in another country, but protests and rebellion can be led by anyone with eloquence and slogans.
Protests, revolutions, rebellions and uprisings are always the will of the people. It is impossible to arrange a revolution artiffically, it is always a spontaneous expression of the will of the people, but a revolution can be led, which Russia did in 2014.
However, there is a fact is that the local population supported and supports the separatists. Otherwise the DPR and LPR simply would not have existed for 8 years from 2014 to 2022. If the local population had not supported the separatists, these state entities would not have been able to be in a state of war with Ukraine for 8 years, conducting forced recruitment into the army for 8 years. Waging war with the Ukraine and conducting a mobilization for 8 years, starting in 2014, would have been impossible without the support of the population. The population of Donbass absolutely supported and supports the separatists, and it was the local residents in Donbass who raised an uprising in 2014.
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In 2014 USA backed with money and propaganda a revolution, coup in Ukraine, changing power in this country, while Russia was investing money into Ukraine for years since 2000s. So USA basically robbed Russia, and Russia as an answer captured Crimea. Russia came for its share of Ukraine. This is how this war started, basically. Russia just wants its share which USA simply stolen from Russia by organizing a revolution in Ukraine. Crimea is just basically Russian territory with MAJORITY of 60% of population being Russians, and just minority of 16% of Ukrainians, which was transfered from Russia to Ukraine by Soviet government. After the collapse of USSR Russia wanted friendship and cooperation with Ukraine, and Russia recognized Crimea as Ukrainian. But American backed revolution in Ukraine changed this and Russia came to liberate Crimea at first place, and Crimean Russian population wanted to reunite with Russia for years, they are still happy that they are in Russia and support Putin and SMO. Later Russia played reverse UNO card and backed coups in the Donbass, leading to creation of Donetsk and Luhansk separatists, who declared independence from Ukraine. But instead of going to war, Putin wanted to trade this territory back to Ukraine in exchange of Russian political influence on Ukraine. And Putin had a very good deal with Ukrainian president Poroshenko, but they both made 2 mistakes - Putin lost control over Donbass rebels and they didn't wanted to make a peace deal with Uktaine. The same way Putin lost control over Prigojin and Wagner group in 2023. While Ukrainian president Poroshenko lost control over his parliament and Ukrainian parliament also rejected peace deal. So, Putin and Poroshenko made another deal - Ukraine DIDN'T returned Donbass back, but Russia was allowed to invest money into media and political parties inside Ukraine, and pro-Russian party was leading elections on 2nd place in Ukrainian parliament with 20% of vote, until Zelensky came to power and started censorship and purges against free media and his opponents in Ukraine. So, Russia lost the only one peaceful mean of influence over Ukraine and Russia used military soultion.
At now Trump is ready to make a deal with Russia dividing Ukraine 50/50. Nothing personal, just business. USA have backed with money and media revolution, change of power in Ukraine in 2014, so Russia which invested money, territories and people into Ukraine was robbed, USA simply have stolen everything from Russia, and at now USA are taking responsibility for their actions, and using diplomacy instead of war. Russia IS reliable ally and partner, unlike European Union, and in early 2000s there was an attempt of friendship between USA and Russia. When 9/11 attack happened, Putin was the first president in the World who called American president, and Russia even allowed its airspace and territory for American army going to war on terror in Afghanistan. USA and Russia need to be at least neutral and not cause problems to each other.
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