Comments by "Arty" (@arty5876) on "Mariupol “on brink of capture” as Russia claims Ukrainian forces have surrendered - BBC News" video.
-
1
-
1
-
@emphasizeflies7382 I would copy my analysis.
Russians had invaded Ukraine without numerical superiority, while Ukraine is the largest land millitary in Europe after Russia. Ukraine have far more tanks, than Germany, Poland, Britain or France. If the quality of troops is equal, according to the law of millitary science attacking side is suffering more casualities.
The major 2 reasons, why Russian invasion had failed in first few weeks:
1) Joung Russian soldiers aren't motivated to fight against brother Slavic people, a lot of Russians have relatives in Ukraine, probably some Russian soldiers have relarives in Ukraine (Millitary crimes probably were commited by soldiers of Asian and Islamic nationalities or by Russian police forces, not by Russian troops of Slavic nationality, I saw the video
from Ukrainian-Russian historian and opinin-leader Mark Solonin about this). Russian soldiers are mentally and morally supressed, they don't want to fight against brother Slavic people. Opposite - Ukrainians have moral boom, they are fighting for their homeland. Also, civillian deaths would demoralize Russians and rise the morale of Ukrainians.
2) Russian command probably believed in its own propaganda, and commanders in Kremlin were thinking, that they would take all of Ukraine in 3 days without resistance, and Russian troops would be met with flowers. And Russian command simply didn't prepared for a war - Russians didn't planned, that they would face the resistance, they thought that they would take all of Ukraine in 3 days, and this is why Russians at now have poor logistics and preparation. Russians were invading Ukraine by moving in columns, very dangerous for ambushes.
Russia have a population of 146 million people, while Ukraine have the population of 40 million. The life standarts, economy and corruption in Russia and Ukraine are in the same level, but Ukrainians probably worked on corruption in their army, and also Ukrainian army was trained by Western specialists. Also, Ukrainians have modern Western AT weapons and drones.
After 3 weeks Russians had stopped their invasion, and at now they are reinforcing and forming the frontline, they made a pause. Russians are dasapointed of their first plan, and they refused it, retreated from Kyiv to regroup and resupply in the Donbass region.
I think that casualities ratio between Russia and Ukraine is ~2 to 1 in favour of Ukraine.
After 2 months of war Russians still didn't started mobilization, while Ukrainian army is growing. Probably Ukraine already have numerical superiority over Russia in the frontline.
I think that war would end up to V day on 9th of May.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1