Comments by "Arty" (@arty5876) on "Ukraine’s situation may keep deteriorating despite renewed US help. Here’s why." video.
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@giftedtheos if Putin wanted to conquer entire Geogia, why he didn't did it in 2008? In august 2008 there was a very short small war between Russia and Georgia - this war happened because of Geogian agression - Georgia have invaded South Ossetia, and Russia conducted a peacekeeping operation. Even European Union recognised Georgia as an agressor after the war. European Union said that Georgia have started the war, not Russia, while Russian actions were the same as NATO in Kosovo. After 5 days of fighting Russian army achieved complete and total victory over Georgian army, Georgian forces were defeated after 5 days of war, and later there were negotiations between Russia and Georgia, and Russia pulled back its forced to pre war border, Russia didn't annexed, Russia didn't occupied even a square meter of Georgian soil. Russia and Georgia just negotiated and agreed to peace on pre-war border. Georgia is small country with population of 3 million and army of 20 thousand men, and Russian army achieved victory after 5 days of fighting, pulling Georgian forces out of South Ossetia, Russia had a chance to steamroll over Georgia in few weeks, even considering mountain terrain. But Putin have chosed peaceful solution, negotiations and Russian forces withdrew to pre-war border. After losing a war to Russia pro-Western party lost power in Georgia and at now Georgia in Russian sphere of influence, without conquering it, and previous Geogian president at now in prison, while current Georgian president is pro-Russian oligarch. We live in 21st century, at now you don't need to conquer state to control it. In 21st century there are such thing as "soft force" - great power can use its economy and prosperity to atract other nations. Belarus is in Russian sphere of influence as a result of Russian soft force. And Russia was succesfully defeating the West in soft force over Ukraine - Ukrainian president Yanukovich was elected in 2010, because he promised that Ukraine will join European Union. But Russia have gas discount to Ukraine and free money as a gift, as a result of which pro-Western Ukrainian president started to try to sit on two chairs between Russia and EU, and Yanukovich didn't approved deal with EU. As a result, Ukrainian oligarchs with help of CIA have organised massive protests and coup in Kyiv. Victoria Nuland was in Ukraine in december of 2013 and she was giving cookies to protesters, and in 2015 USA said that they spent on "development of Ukrainian democrasy" 5 billion dollars. Ukrainian economic elites, oligarchs, with help of CIA organised coup in Ukraine, because Western influence was defeated by Russian soft force - gas discounts and free money. West left Russia no other choise but to act more tough - if USA are conducting coups in Ukraine and if USA are changing Ukrainian government, why Russia don't have right to influence Ukraine too? Russia answered to this coup by annexing Crimea, a Russian region of Ukraine where Russians are 60% of population, while Ukrainians are minority - 20% of population. Crimea never belonged to Ukraine, it was a part of Russian Soviet Republic untill Nikita Khrushew gave this Russian land in 1954 to Ukraine to fix Soviet burecratic problems - Crimea didn't have land connection with Russia, so all gas and water supply to Crimea were from Ukrainian Soviet Repiblic, and there was a burecratic nightmare in Soviet Ukrainian government, they needed a telephone call to Moscow for every issue with Crimea, and in 1954 Krushew gave Russian core territory with majority of Russian population to other neighbouring state - Ukraine, but this is Russian people, Russian population and Russian land. After the collapse of USSR Russia respected Ukrainian territorial integrity for 23 years since 1991 to 2014, untill Ukraine waa at least neutral towards Russia. But after the anti-Russian coup in Ukraine with help of CIA, there would be no respect to territorial intrgrity of Russian territories inside Ukraine, and Russia liberated Crimea from Ukrainian occupation. I have talked with many people of Crimea, Russians from Crimea wanted to leave Ukraine since the collapse of USSR, they wanted and supported reunification with their homeland, their native harbor - Russia.
The same thing as in Georgia Putin wanted to do in Ukraine - all invasion was conducted after failed negotiations with NATO - Russia was trying to achieve its goals by peaceful means, but negotiations with NATO failed, and when diplomats stop talking, the cannons start talking for them. All Russian invasion in the start was a bluff to simply force Ukraine to negotiation table and peace on Russian terms, but I think Putin had few possible scenarios and plans for war, so scenario with capture of Kyiv and establishing puppet regime also was on Putin's table. But Russia didn't achieved capture of Kyiv and in march of 2022 there were negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. In december 2023 Arachamia, leader of Zelensky's parlament party, who was head of Ukrainian delegation at these negotiations, told the truth about what happened. This in not "Kremlin propaganda", this is words of Arachamia, head of Ukrainian diplomacy group during negotiations with Russia and head of Zelensky's party - Russia didn't wanted to annex territories at least at the start of the war, Russia wanted Ukraine to become neutral non-NATO member with censorship of nationalist media and reduction of military, and Russia was ready to pull back forces to pre-war border. But then Boris Johnson showed up and promised military aid to Ukraine, and Ukraine tricked Russia - Ukraine asked Russia to give a signal that Russia is ready to respect terms and then Ukraine will ratiphy agreement - there are already was Ukrainian and Russian signatures on these agreements. Russia showed its readiness by withdrawing forces from Northern Ukraine and Kyiv, and then Ukraine leaved negotiation process, and at now we are in the third year of war.
If Putin wanted to conquer Ukraine entirely, Putin had a good oportunity when Ukraine was weak - in 2014, 2015 and 2016, and probably 2017. But Russia didn't started full scale invasion in those years, but opposite - Russia gave to Ukraine 8 years to prepare for war. Ukrainian army was weak and simply didn't existed in 2014, if Putin wanted to conquer Ukraine, he could have simply do this in 2015, but Russia was doing opposite - when there was a war in the Donbass between Ukrainian army and Russian separatists from Donetsk and Luhansk, who wanted to join Russia, there were negotiations between Russia, EU and Ukraine, negotiations in Minsk, and Russia was trying to give this land to Ukraine. Russia made a peace project, according to which Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republic would disarm and re join Ukraine, if Ukraine would respect Russian minority and language, and will give them a veto right in the parlament, but BOTH Ukraine and DPR and LPR refused to this peace project. Russia was trying to help Ukraine and Russia was trying to reunify Ukraine with territories of Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, and in 2015 Russian separatists saw it as a betrayal from Russia.
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The truth is Russia since the start of the war fought against Ukraine not in full capability, in the start of the invasion Russia was using limited force of volunteers among contractors of ~150 thousand men, without mobilization, while Ukraine already had army of 200 thousand men even before the war and Ukraine started to mobilize already since the first day of war. This happened because Putin wants to hold the power and he didn't wanted to anger Russian people with mobilization, Putin didn't wanted to provoke and anger Russian population, risking to lose his huge support and reputation, so Putin thought that he will end the war in 2-3 weeks by forcing Ukraine to negotiations and Russian peace terms, or even captuting Kyiv and establishing puppet regime, and small force of 150 thousand soldiers would be enough for 2 weeks of war. But Putin's plans failed - during the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, Russia was tricked. Russia was ready to leave all captured territories and pull back to pre-war borders, in exchange of Ukraine's neutral and non-NATO status. Ukraine asked Russia to give a signal that Russia is ready to respect terms, and Russia withdrew forces from Northern Ukraine and Kyiv, and after this happened Ukraine leaved negotiations. And this is a tragedy, because there was possibilty to end the war in march or 2022, and Russia in the start of the war didn't wanted to annex Ukrainian lands, Russia was ready to withdraw to pre-war border if Ukraine wouldn't join NATO, this was Russian terms on negotiations. Ukraine had a chance of pre-war borders in the start of the war, but Ukraine have chosen to trick Russia, because Western powers promised military aid to Ukraine, and Ukraine thought that it will take Crimea and Donbass. But I think Western power have tricked Ukraine too - Ukrainian victory is unprofitable for USA. USA wants slow attrition of Russia. This is a war of attrition against Russia, and this is why USA are giving to Ukraine insufficient amount of help. USA have a purpose to not allow Ukraine to win, and West is giving insufficient amount of help to Ukraine to win, but sufficient to not allow Russia to advance. West have tricked Ukraine, and USA are using Ukraine as a proxy, as a cannon fodder against Russia in proxy hybrid war of attrition.
In the start of thr war Russia fought with quality, while Ukraine fought with quantity. Russia have total superiority in artillery, artillery is a god of war and causes 80-90% of all casualities in war. Also, in the start of the war Russia fought with volunteers among professional contract troops, while Ukrainians were defending with everything they had, including uncapable and untrained young conscripts and mobilized troops. Russian contractors of course were much more capable to fight than Ukrainian untrained 18 years old conscripts and 50 years old mobilized with heart problems, and Russia had total advantage in artillery. So, in the start of the war, in first few months of war, Russia fought with quality, while Ukraine fought with quantity, Ukrainian losses were higher, but Russian offensive have stuck in Ukrainian numerical superiority more and more as Ukraine was mobilizing more men. In summer 2022 Ukraine received American accurate missile systems, which reduced Russian artillery superiority. In september 2022 there was a significant numerical superiority on Ukrainian side, 2 to 1 in Ukrainian favor, two Ukrainian soldiers for every one Russian, and with huge numerical superiority Ukrainian army made a breakthrough of Russian lines in Kharkiv region. After that Putin had a dilema - Putin wants to stay in power and he don't want to anger Russian people with mobilization, but also he wanted to end the war in 2 weeks, and on 8th month of war Ukrainian army have significant numerical superiority, and Russia will lose the war without mobilization. Putin have chosen to conduct one wave of mobilization, risking losing support from people, and Putin have lost his reputation and support of Russian people, I can say it as Russian citizen. Mobilization saved Russian lines from collapsing, and Ukrainian offensive was stopped, but casuality ratio changed by 180 degree and Russia was losing more men in fall of 2022, but casuality ratio have equalized already in the start of the 2023, because as time was passing Russian mobilized troops were gaining combat experience. Mobilization in Russia have ended already in november 2022, and as a result Russian army didn't received numerical superiority - both armies were just equalized, there was nearly 1 to 1 ratio of strength between Ukrainian and Russian armies in late 2022. And since then for 1.5 year there was no more mobilization in Russia. So, at now, at may of 2024, there are nearly 450 thousand Russian troops, mostly volunteer, and nearly 600 thousand Ukrainian, Ukraine is constantly mobilizing, but Ukrainian casualities are higher because of Russian artillery superiority. Also, Russian army have adapted and received huge experience, changed tactics, Russia started massive production of drones and electronic warfare. Electronic warfare makes drones and famous American GPS artillery shells for 777 hotwitzer useless and inaccurate, and also Russia modernized aviation, making the same that USA during after Vietnam war - Russian jets were armed with laser navigated bombs. Ukraine on the other hand after two years of war of attrition have problems with arming newly mobilized troops, Zelensky needs half a million more men and he don't have equipment for them. This all makes the picture clear - Russian advances will loosen Ukrainian defense more and more, and if it will continue for few months more, there are a risk of total collapse of Ukrainian lines.
Also, USA will give fighter jets to Ukraine, they wouldn't change the situation in the frontline, and USA are making mistake, because Russian anti-air and fighters will receive real combat experience and train. USSR made the same mistake during the Vietnam war - USSR gave anti-air and fighters to North Vietnam, and as a result USA gained experience of air combat with Soviet avation and anti-air, and USA modernized their aviation, USA stoped using unguided bombs after Vietnam. USSR simply made US airforce stronger, and at now USA will make Russian air force and anti-air stronger, experiences, trained
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The truth is Russia since the start of the war fought against Ukraine not in full capability, in the start of the invasion Russia was using limited force of volunteers among contractors of ~150 thousand men, without mobilization, while Ukraine already had army of 200 thousand men even before the war and Ukraine started to mobilize already since the first day of war. This happened because Putin wants to hold the power and he didn't wanted to anger Russian people with mobilization, Putin didn't wanted to provoke and anger Russian population, risking to lose his huge support and reputation, so Putin thought that he will end the war in 2-3 weeks by forcing Ukraine to negotiations and Russian peace terms, or even captuting Kyiv and establishing puppet regime, and small force of 150 thousand soldiers would be enough for 2 weeks of war. But Putin's plans failed - during the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, Russia was tricked. Russia was ready to leave all captured territories and pull back to pre-war borders, in exchange of Ukraine's neutral and non-NATO status. Ukraine asked Russia to give a signal that Russia is ready to respect terms, and Russia withdrew forces from Northern Ukraine and Kyiv, and after this happened Ukraine leaved negotiations. And this is a tragedy, because there was possibilty to end the war in march or 2022, and Russia in the start of the war didn't wanted to annex Ukrainian lands, Russia was ready to withdraw to pre-war border if Ukraine wouldn't join NATO, this was Russian terms on negotiations. Ukraine had a chance of pre-war borders in the start of the war, but Ukraine have chosen to trick Russia, because Western powers promised military aid to Ukraine, and Ukraine thought that it will take Crimea and Donbass. But I think Western power have tricked Ukraine too - Ukrainian victory is unprofitable for USA. USA wants slow attrition of Russia. This is a war of attrition against Russia, and this is why USA are giving to Ukraine insufficient amount of help. USA have a purpose to not allow Ukraine to win, and West is giving insufficient amount of help to Ukraine to win, but sufficient to not allow Russia to advance. West have tricked Ukraine, and USA are using Ukraine as a proxy, as a cannon fodder against Russia in proxy hybrid war of attrition.
In the start of thr war Russia fought with quality, while Ukraine fought with quantity. Russia have total superiority in artillery, artillery is a god of war and causes 80-90% of all casualities in war. Also, in the start of the war Russia fought with volunteers among professional contract troops, while Ukrainians were defending with everything they had, including uncapable and untrained young conscripts and mobilized troops. Russian contractors of course were much more capable to fight than Ukrainian untrained 18 years old conscripts and 50 years old mobilized with heart problems, and Russia had total advantage in artillery. So, in the start of the war, in first few months of war, Russia fought with quality, while Ukraine fought with quantity, Ukrainian losses were higher, but Russian offensive have stuck in Ukrainian numerical superiority more and more as Ukraine was mobilizing more men. In summer 2022 Ukraine received American accurate missile systems, which reduced Russian artillery superiority. In september 2022 there was a significant numerical superiority on Ukrainian side, 2 to 1 in Ukrainian favor, two Ukrainian soldiers for every one Russian, and with huge numerical superiority Ukrainian army made a breakthrough of Russian lines in Kharkiv region. After that Putin had a dilema - Putin wants to stay in power and he don't want to anger Russian people with mobilization, but also he wanted to end the war in 2 weeks, and on 8th month of war Ukrainian army have significant numerical superiority, and Russia will lose the war without mobilization. Putin have chosen to conduct one wave of mobilization, risking losing support from people, and Putin have lost his reputation and support of Russian people, I can say it as Russian citizen. Mobilization saved Russian lines from collapsing, and Ukrainian offensive was stopped, but casuality ratio changed by 180 degree and Russia was losing more men in fall of 2022, but casuality ratio have equalized already in the start of the 2023, because as time was passing Russian mobilized troops were gaining combat experience. Mobilization in Russia have ended already in november 2022, and as a result Russian army didn't received numerical superiority - both armies were just equalized, there was nearly 1 to 1 ratio of strength between Ukrainian and Russian armies in late 2022. And since then for 1.5 year there was no more mobilization in Russia. So, at now, at may of 2024, there are nearly 450 thousand Russian troops, mostly volunteer, and nearly 600 thousand Ukrainian, Ukraine is constantly mobilizing, but Ukrainian casualities are higher because of Russian artillery superiority. Also, Russian army have adapted and received huge experience, changed tactics, Russia started massive production of drones and electronic warfare. Electronic warfare makes drones and famous American GPS artillery shells for 777 hotwitzer useless and inaccurate, and also Russia modernized aviation, making the same that USA during after Vietnam war - Russian jets were armed with laser navigated bombs. Ukraine on the other hand after two years of war of attrition have problems with arming newly mobilized troops, Zelensky needs half a million more men and he don't have equipment for them. This all makes the picture clear - Russian advances will loosen Ukrainian defense more and more, and if it will continue for few months more, there are a risk of total collapse of Ukrainian lines. After 2 years of war Russian war economy grew few times, at now Russia outproduces entire NATO alliance in terms of artillery shells by 3 times, and NATO's Europe's arenals are 1/2 empty.
Also, USA will give fighter jets to Ukraine, they wouldn't change the situation in the frontline, and USA are making mistake, because Russian anti-air and fighters will receive real combat experience and train. USSR made the same mistake during the Vietnam war - USSR gave anti-air and fighters to North Vietnam, and as a result USA gained experience of air combat with Soviet avation and anti-air, and USA modernized their aviation, USA stoped using unguided bombs after Vietnam. USSR simply made US airforce stronger, and at now USA will make Russian air force and anti-air stronger, experienced, trained with F-16 delivery to Ukraine
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@bkeckk European Union recognised that Georgia started the war.
How can Serbia invade its own territory? Why America and NATO bombed Serbia in 1999? Your Western hypocrisy know no limits
During the times of Soviet Union, Soviet leaders made unjustical borders, giving territory of two separate nations to Georgia. Also, Nikita Krushew gave Russian populated territory - Crimea, from Russia to Ukraine in 1954 just to fix Soviet burecratic problems. Crimea have no land connection with Russia, so all gas and water supplies to Crimea were from Ukrainian Soviet Republic, and Nikita Krushew was head of Soviet Ukraine before he became leader of USSR, and for every issue with Crimea he needed to make a call to Moscow. So, Nikita Keushew gave Russian core national territory, where Russians are 60% of population, because of his personal interest. This is a crime. Nikita Krushew commited a crime, by giving Russian land to another country. After the collapse of USSR Russia respected territorial integrity of Russian lands in Ukraine until Ukraine was at least neutral towards Russia, but after oligarchic anti-Russian coup with help of CIA there would be no respect and Russia liberated its own territory, and people of Crimea were waiting and they were happy with this liberation and reunification with homeland
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