Comments by "Arty" (@arty5876) on "‘Putin is not able to succeed on the battlefield’: Blinken on Russia’s military tactics" video.
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At the begining of the war Russia has only about 400,000 infantrymen, paratroopers and marines, half of whom are conscripts who do not take part in the special operation. And of the contractors, only volunteers fought until September 21. Thus, Russia started the war on February 24, having about 120 thousand of its own contract soldiers and several tens of thousands of soldiers from the DPR and LPR. Ukraine at the beginning of the war had 220 thousand soldiers, and Ukraine also had 900 thousand reservists, and Ukraine began to mobilize on the first day of the war.
Unsurprisingly, the Russian army's offensive bogged down a month later. It's not enough that it's easier to defend than to attack, so besides, the defending Ukrainian side also has a numerical advantage. It is clear that the Russian offensive has bogged down and almost stopped. Nevertheless, during March 2022, Russian troops achieved tremendous success, given that the Russian army was advancing, being in a numerical minority. And do not forget that Ukraine has been preparing for war for 8 years and has been building fortifications in the southeast for 8 years.
The Russian army, being in a numerical minority, continued to advance, albeit slowly, gnawing through the Ukrainian defense throughout the spring and summer of 2022. What does this tell us? This tells us that the losses of the Ukrainian army are actually higher than the Russian losses. Because if the losses of the Russian army were higher than the Ukrainian ones, then Russia would not have conducted successful offensive operations throughout the spring and summer of 2022, being in a numerical minority. Thus, we can conclude that Russia fought for several months, until September 21, 2022, being in a numerical minority, and the Russian army used the tactics of artillery gnawing through the defense, while the Ukrainian army attacked the positions of Russian troops head-on with cannon fodder. Russia has superiority in artillery, aviation and technology.
Ukraine certainly has modern Western weapons and drones. But drones and fancy missiles, due to their numbers, cannot compensate for the amount of aviation, cruise missiles and artillery that Russia has. And in general, it is not surprising that Ukraine's losses are higher, given that 95% of losses in the war are the result of artillery and aviation, in which Russia has total superiority. So in my theory, everything is generally logical. 90% of losses in the war are the result of artillery action, and Russia has total superiority in this regard.
As for the technology and quality of weapons, Ukraine certainly has modern Western weapons, but a minority of the army is armed with them. And most of the soldiers of Ukraine are fighting mainly with old Soviet junk from the 1980s. At the same time, Russia is armed with modernized equipment, for example, T-72b3 tanks of 2016. The Russians took a Soviet tank, changed the engine, improved the armor, installed more modern equipment, upgraded this tank to NATO standards of the late noughties and early 2010s. While Ukraine, due to corruption and a weak economy, was unable to upgrade its old weapons to modern quality standards. Thus, Russian Soviet tanks are much better and more modern than Ukrainian Soviet tanks, because Russia has upgraded its Soviet equipment to modern standards, and the Ukrainian army is armed with museum expansions of the Soviet era.
Do not forget that in addition to the advantage in mobilization, Ukraine has an advantage in the form of supplies of Western weapons. Moreover, the supplies have such volumes that many NATO countries have already exhausted their weapons stocks. 20/30 NATO member states announced in mid-November 2022 that they could no longer support Ukraine. The United States stopped supplying grenade launchers to Ukraine in the summer, because they had exhausted a significant share of their reserves, and they still need reserves for Taiwan.
It is clear that thanks to the mobilization of the Ukrainian army, armed with NATO weapons, has accumulated a huge numerical advantage by August 2022. In August, the Russian offensive finally bogged down in Ukrainian numbers, and in September, the Ukrainian army launched a successful offensive, liberating Balakleya and cutting off Russian supplies in Izyum, after which Russian troops evacuated from the Kharkiv region.
And also, using American precision weapons, the Ukrainians destroyed bridges across the Dnieper and left Russian troops in Kherson without supplies, which forced the Russians to leave Kherson. By the way, there are advantages in this - the Dnieper is a wide river that no one ever forces, and therefore it is a magnificent defensive position that Ukrainians will never cross.
After the defeats at the front, it became clear to the Russians that the numerical advantage on the side of the Ukrainian army is so great that Russia also needs to declare a response mobilization. On September 21, 2022, mobilization in Russia was announced. The Ukrainian army won all 7 months of the war only with numerical superiority, suffering more losses than the Russian army. Now that Russia has declared mobilization, we can forget about the successful Ukrainian offensives.
After the terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge on October 8, 2022, Russia launched massive missile strikes on Ukraine's energy and infrastructure. And now let's imagine what would have happened if Russia had launched such missile strikes from the very beginning of the war? Ukraine would have capitulated long ago.
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@Moraprecisionreloader 1) Russians at now are advancing towards Bakhmut.
2) The Russians left Kherson because the Ukrainians had destroyed all the bridges across the Dnieper with the help of American precision weapons, and the Russian troops did not have normal supplies and reinforcements. Moreover, the Russians left this region in an organized manner, without a fight. Russian troops were not defeated on the battlefield near Kherson. As for the successes of Ukraine, it is important to understand that Russia, until the end of September, did not fight against Ukraine at full strength. Russia fought for 7 months without mobilization and without conscripts, using only volunteers. Ukraine, on the contrary, has been mobilizing since the first day of the war. It is clear that the Ukrainians have accumulated a numerical superiority, and were able to achieve success. However, after the Ukrainian successes, Russia announced mobilization - Putin did not want to announce mobilization for a long time because of the risks of revolution and unrest in the country. But when the Ukrainian army has a numerical superiority of one and a half to two times, they defeat us. Therefore, it is necessary to equalize the number of armies. Mobilized Russian troops are now arriving at the front, which means that the Ukrainian army will soon be unable to achieve any success at all. Because the population of Russia is 3.5 times larger. Russia can pull so many troops to the front that the Ukrainians will not achieve anything. This is where the war will end.
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When Russia started the war, Russia has only about 400,000 infantrymen, paratroopers and marines, half of whom are conscripts who do not take part in the special operation. And of the contractors, only volunteers fought until September 21. Thus, Russia started the war on February 24, having about 120 thousand of its own contract soldiers and several tens of thousands of soldiers from the DPR and LPR. Ukraine at the beginning of the war had 220 thousand soldiers, and Ukraine also had 900 thousand reservists, and Ukraine began to mobilize on the first day of the war.
Unsurprisingly, the Russian army's offensive bogged down a month later. It's not enough that it's easier to defend than to attack, so besides, the defending Ukrainian side also has a numerical advantage. It is clear that the Russian offensive has bogged down and almost stopped. Nevertheless, during March 2022, Russian troops achieved tremendous success, given that the Russian army was advancing, being in a numerical minority. And do not forget that Ukraine has been preparing for war for 8 years and has been building fortifications in the southeast for 8 years.
The Russian army, being in a numerical minority, continued to advance, albeit slowly, gnawing through the Ukrainian defense throughout the spring and summer of 2022. What does this tell us? This tells us that the losses of the Ukrainian army are actually higher than the Russian losses. Because if the losses of the Russian army were higher than the Ukrainian ones, then Russia would not have conducted successful offensive operations throughout the spring and summer of 2022, being in a numerical minority. Thus, we can conclude that Russia fought for several months, until September 21, 2022, being in a numerical minority, and the Russian army used the tactics of artillery gnawing through the defense, while the Ukrainian army attacked the positions of Russian troops head-on with cannon fodder. Russia has superiority in artillery, aviation and technology.
Ukraine certainly has modern Western weapons and drones. But drones and fancy missiles, due to their numbers, cannot compensate for the amount of aviation, cruise missiles and artillery that Russia has. And in general, it is not surprising that Ukraine's losses are higher, given that 95% of losses in the war are the result of artillery and aviation, in which Russia has total superiority. So in my theory, everything is generally logical. 90% of losses in the war are the result of artillery action, and Russia has total superiority in this regard.
As for the technology and quality of weapons, Ukraine certainly has modern Western weapons, but a minority of the army is armed with them. And most of the soldiers of Ukraine are fighting mainly with old Soviet junk from the 1980s. At the same time, Russia is armed with modernized equipment, for example, T-72b3 tanks of 2016. The Russians took a Soviet tank, changed the engine, improved the armor, installed more modern equipment, upgraded this tank to NATO standards of the late noughties and early 2010s. While Ukraine, due to corruption and a weak economy, was unable to upgrade its old weapons to modern quality standards. Thus, Russian Soviet tanks are much better and more modern than Ukrainian Soviet tanks, because Russia has upgraded its Soviet equipment to modern standards, and the Ukrainian army is armed with museum expansions of the Soviet era.
Do not forget that in addition to the advantage in mobilization, Ukraine has an advantage in the form of supplies of Western weapons. Moreover, the supplies have such volumes that many NATO countries have already exhausted their weapons stocks. 20/30 NATO member states announced in mid-November 2022 that they could no longer support Ukraine. The United States stopped supplying grenade launchers to Ukraine in the summer, because they had exhausted a significant share of their reserves, and they still need reserves for Taiwan.
It is clear that thanks to the mobilization of the Ukrainian army, armed with NATO weapons, has accumulated a huge numerical advantage by August 2022. In August, the Russian offensive finally bogged down in Ukrainian numbers, and in September, the Ukrainian army launched a successful offensive, liberating Balakleya and cutting off Russian supplies in Izyum, after which Russian troops evacuated from the Kharkiv region.
And also, using American precision weapons, the Ukrainians destroyed bridges across the Dnieper and left Russian troops in Kherson without supplies, which forced the Russians to leave Kherson. By the way, there are advantages in this - the Dnieper is a wide river that no one ever forces, and therefore it is a magnificent defensive position that Ukrainians will never cross.
After the defeats at the front, it became clear to the Russians that the numerical advantage on the side of the Ukrainian army is so great that Russia also needs to declare a response mobilization. On September 21, 2022, mobilization in Russia was announced. The Ukrainian army won all 7 months of the war only with numerical superiority, suffering more losses than the Russian army. Now that Russia has declared mobilization, we can forget about the successful Ukrainian offensives.
After the terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge on October 8, 2022, Russia launched massive missile strikes on Ukraine's energy and infrastructure. And now let's imagine what would have happened if Russia had launched such missile strikes from the very beginning of the war? Ukraine would have capitulated long ago.
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