Comments by "worn down" (@worndown8280) on "WALL STREET Just Predicted a 2022 HOUSING CRASH (look at Zillow u0026 Home Builders)" video.

He has to give his associates time to exit their positions in an inconspicuous way. Cant have the wrong people holding the bag now can we.
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@adm7890 That can be blamed on Mr Biden. He placed extra tariffs on Canadian lumber to appease the global warmists and so Canada has limited exports to the US since. We could offset that with more national lumber production, but the global warmists.
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@chrisfamos Demand. Housing inflated due to the boomer generations massively large size. Before that real estate was static at best, a deflating asset at worst. As they age, move in with younger relatives, go into nursing homes, there will be a massive demand collapse as they vacate homes. Initially most demographers thought the boomers would sell out and move, they never did. So when they do die, they will leave empty homes. At least this is one current theory.
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@mikehawk4856 You are going to hurt his feelings.
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@adm7890 Of course there is, there is a literal supply shortage. Thats how the market creates more supply normally. But it cant because of political ideology. But supposedly they will be lowering tariffs in august, why they are waiting until august I have no idea. Ironically, the Canadian lumber companies are the largest donators to American environmentalists groups like the Sierra Club. They shut down our lumber harvesting and then reap the rewards with theirs.
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When people say crash they typically mean a 20% decline. Some people are expecting 60 to 80 percent, but that is fantasy land. A return to pre covid trend line seems a likely rational bet. But it really depends on how the Fed addresses the mortgage backed securities mess its created. If it actually starts selling its MBS's that will really put pressure on banks to tighten lending with will cause demand to fall. Also a lot of investors use their rentals as piggy banks to leverage to buy more rentals. They do that by refinancing. That is over with rates increasing like they have. If the Feds do any residency investigation, which they should (mortgage loans are either based on primary residency or as investment) that would kill a lot of the rental folks. We are still to early to really tell what the Fed will do. But if they do what they have been saying prices will have to fall, even if there is little inventory.
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@ryanleonard4034 Japan is a bit different. Their population is actively declining, last year by 400,000 people. Each year that number will get bigger. So the demand is declining every year. Prices will never recover with that type of deflationary pressure. We still have at least a decade before we might see that here, depending on immigration. But demand will flatted as boomers do die off in mass.
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@jesse_- the median life expectancy in the US for boomers is 79. That means a lot die before, a lot die after. There are standard deviation curves. Currently 29% of boomers born have already died. Demand from millennials have corrected for this. But demographically speaking, this is peak demand.
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@wintersantiago2274 When a recession hits and someone loses their job, they wont have a choice. When someones boomer parent dies, and they are really entering that death zone as a generation, they wont need that house and want the extra cash so they will sell what they can get for it. These both will be deflationary to the real estate market. Then there is the Fed stopping with the MBS madness. There wont be a 40 percent crash, probably, but returning to a pre covid trend line seems more rational. And that is relative to each market, some havent seen that big a mark up.
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This is something a lot of people dont even see. The housing market is really missing a lot of entry level/retirement homes. With input costs what they are and regulations, they arent very good profit makers for builders. But this is really where the most demand is at. If more of these were built, the demand for the middle range homes would adjust massively.
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