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worn down
Zeihan on Geopolitics
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Comments by "worn down" (@worndown8280) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

Imagine if the mother stayed with their child.
45
What if I told you the Mexican fertility rate is 1.9? You need 2.1 for a steady population. Mexico is in the same boat as everyone else. Even Niger's fertility rate is dropping on average 1% a year. This is a global problem.
40
It is Saudi. They are the only nation that has what everyone wants.
18
The first issue people think backwards on. They think, how can we accommodate women better or better put, mothers. The more effective option would be how can we make men better providers for the family. That has a multiplier effect. It makes the male able to provide for his family without the wife having to pull double duty, which is unreasonable. And 2nd, it makes that man more attractive in the first place for starting a family, the main thing most young women complain about, there being a lack of "good" young men to marry. But we cant do that because misogyny. This is a doom loop all societies reach at certain points.
17
@MrRezillo Thats an interesting sentence you constructed. "lower orders" and "overbreed". Do you by chance have a funny mustache and a penchant for snazzy uniforms? All kidding aside. If you were ever poor, which from your insanely side comment I can tell you have not been, you would know that one of the cheapest and funniest activities that men and women have come up with is absolutely free, though sometimes there is a surprise upon completion. One could easily ask whey those who have wealth beyond the dreams of most people have little to no children at all? Perhaps a cup with no bottom cannot be filled, maybe?
14
Morgan Allen We dont even have enough workers for all the jobs we have. Our problem going forward will be not enough workers. Anywhere where automation is useful and more importantly cost effective with even a neutral ROI, it will be used. In this case, because of lack of product cotton will be one of those areas. We have had little textiles in the US since the 1990s. We still had 6-3% unemployment. So how does one destroy a job that never existed?
13
I am not sure if you understand you proved his point. Even in the summer, when you have the most solar, you still need all of the grid and all of its inputs including keeping the power plant spun up. Unless a home can be 100% self sufficient, year round, its not really "helping" as far as a carbon footprint goes, if thats important to you. It sure will offset higher energy costs though.
13
@wilsi473 no. You don't understand that these interests are opposed to one another. People must choose. We have lied and said people, women in particular can have both. They really can't. And civilization needs one to continue to exist. If people don't want that and prioritize one over the other, that's fine. But they should fully understand this. Today it's not even talked about.
10
As someone else said, Peter struggles, as most people do, with their personal feelings in domestic politics influencing their reason. We are all only human after all.
7
Is this the same food Tractor Supply says doesnt stop laying hens from laying?
7
@hamzamahmood9565 Youngest Millennials are 29. Statistically if a woman reaches 30 without children she only has a 50% chance of having two. Millennials missed their boat.
7
The "series year" denotes the time that particular note($1, $5, $20, etc) design was adopted, not printed. So if you see a bank note that has a series of 2017 on it it means it was printed sometime between 2017 and the time you obtained it. Hope that helps.
7
They are noisy as all hell. The new type 93 is much quieter but still noisy compared to ours. But thats not the biggest issue with Chinese subs. Its their reactors. They leak like crazy.
6
Government spending is 20% of GDP, you would have to cut spending by half damn near to get a balanced budget. A 10% decline in spending would create a depression. If the government increased taxes to that amount it would have the same effect. But some people dont understand economics, so they cant understand that.
6
@sleeplessdev7204 No one is a threat to the US. Not even remotely. Everyone who could attack us in theory, is an alley or a heavily dependent economic partner. No one could even get to us to land troops. Could someone lob nukes at us, sure. But we could throw them right back.
6
@notdan995 because of the debt limit no. It should never happen. Since 1979 when Congress passes a budget the debt ceiling automatically gets raised, its call the Gephardt rule. The thing is Congress hasnt passed an actual real budget since 1997.
6
@samdetwiler4531 I love reading posts where people think all wheat is just wheat and all corn is just corn. Its nice to see at least one post on target.
6
@adampeters9861 Its the Reagan Democrat redux. People are voting their economic interests over political ideology.
5
@tonynotstated695 The reason why is 4 of the majors, Ford, GM, Toyota and Honda have all said no we arent going to do this anymore, or at the very least, heavily scaling back. There isnt demand. You can love EVs and say that they are not for everyone or every purpose. But for some pushing EVs is approaching religious fanaticism. Most of the demand for EVs, at their current price point, has been met. Thats even with absurd government subsidies.
5
In 2018. How quickly people forget. 35 days.
5
@kriskeena9438 You are right. I myself retired at 45. I was told I would never advance. So I bailed. Never been happier. But you are very right about how many men dont work and are therefor not good prospective partners. The question is why? You could say its just entitlement, but I think that is an oversimplification in most cases.
5
@keedt Argentina's problems are purely political. It has zero to do with geography, though their position in the globe, about as far away from the most advanced markets as you can get, surely adds to the cost of things.
5
It really should be video recorded date, not release date. Hes just releasing it now. Its Dec 4th not Nov 27th.
4
@hamzamahmood9565 Why do you have to import cheap labor to do jobs that dont need doing unless you import cheap no skilled labor? You think the people coming from Syria and sub Saharan Africa are skilled labor? Seriously?
4
@buildmotosykletist1987 people and nations say a lot of things. That said I would bet Japan would. The last Japanese island is less than 50 miles away from Taiwan. But you never know until it happens for sure.
4
@willchristie2650 People who think automation will save us never seem to understand economies of scale. It cost a lot of money to automate. It becomes prohibitively expensive when your market for the automated goods you intend to sell is constantly shrinking because few are being born and more are dying every year. The math on the ROI never works out then. Which is the scary part. This is how civilizations collapse. And this is where Zeihan's comment, where we dont have the math for this, comes from.
4
In the 90s I went on a troop exchange to Russia, their military was scared to go on ships. They were tinder boxes. The idea that fire suppression systems on Russian warships even approaches American standards is just not the case. Look at all the fires on subs they have just in peace time. Add to this that the Moskva entered service in 1979, it was over 40 years old, with technology to match. Its possible the Ukraine hit it, but I dont have a hard time believing the ship caught fire on accident.
4
@solylapalma Holding up a tanker, even for a few days, destroys supply chains. Imagine if you ran out of petrol for just two days. Its only two days. It would destroy any modern economy.
4
@BigDsGaming2022 I mean I dont have that many chickens so I just grow my own feed. But I dont suppose someone can do that and make profit off it. I just do it because I can. Keeps me busy.
4
Which is why as they die there will be a tsunami of homes on the market. Boomers own roughly 40 million homes. They will be sold, rented or used by their children or grandchildren. Either way it will help soak up demand for housing. The only question is what condition will they be in and if they are in the proper location.
4
Even if they "win" they have still lost. With the amount of infrastructure destroyed and the amound of Ukrainians who have left and more than likely will never come back, Ukraine is dead. Before this war started they were the most corrupt nation in Europe with one of the worst demographic trends. This just sped things up. Very sad but this same thing will happen to a lot of nations in the next 50 years.
4
Joe Rogan upped his viability when he did the podcast. The problem with Japan getting involved, which it would, would make every nation uneasy as the 1930s arent that long ago. It was the same with Germany and Ukraine. The Germans didnt want to get involved to that degree. But Japan doesnt have that luxury. The nearest Ryukyu island is less than 50 miles from Taiwan.
4
@ Most devote religious couples are well above fertility rates. In the US the only two religious groups who arent are Catholics at 1.5 and Mormons who are at 2.03. Devote Protestants are at 2.5. Women who do not attend a religious services are at 1.3. Among all religious women in the US the fertility rate is 2.1, exactly replacement level.
4
@joshmontgomery4040 I mean the info is there about what the series year means on the bills. If you dont believe me go look it up. If you dont care, thats fine. Doesnt bother me.
4
Yea those highly educated Venezuelans would be in their 50s by now. How many 50 year olds can walk 3000 miles including through one of the most dangerous jungles on the planet?
4
@jaredyoung5353 Unions work for employees when you are able to limit labor. For the Chamber of Commerce it would if you limited capital. That limits your competition. But that would strangle them too, so typically they just lobby for more regulation to make it almost impossible for new businesses to start. The exact opposite of the thing the Chamber of Commerce should do. Same how when unions sell out their workers for political alliances.
3
@vi6ddarkking There as been very little life extension. What there has been is life preservation. Most of the "increase" was simply reducing childhood mortality. You got two people. One dies at 0 the other at 100. Your median life expectancy is 50. But raise that 0 to even say 65, that boosts it to 82.5 years. Huge increase. All that said I am not sure if you took a look around you but people are unhealthier than ever. Obese, out of shape, and proud to boot. Even the God Emperor of Mankind couldnt protect that.
3
Japan itself has the 2nd strongest Navy on the planet. The question is IF the US and Japan would get involved or just let Taiwan drain Chinese manpower.
3
Eastern Europe is collapsing population wise and some parts were doing so right before the collapse of the Soviet Union.
3
@tukkajumala Respectfully, why would the trend change unless you address the underlying issue? People dont have children, women do. And now, at this time, women dont have to leverage their reproductive capacity for safety or for status. They just get a job like men do. When women have to start to do that again because the state doesnt pay benefits or employers stop employing women, then fertility rates will increase. But that wont be until after a nation state collapses. Even then it might not happen, women will do like they do in Venezuela, they leave and go to a more stable country that still has these things. But eventually the locusts run out of fields to go to and they die.
3
@swirvinbirds1971 I guess we will see in November if people agree with that sentiment. But pointing out the economy is better now than in the middle of a global pandemic shutdown, is a very very low bar.
3
@kq2799 because of how most nations societies are structures and how taxes are paid. Its not like most people still farm and produce their own food so even if the checks stopped, they could still eat. If the checks stop, because there are to few to pay those taxes, then not only do the pensioners stop getting money, but the stores also loose all their shoppers who are pensioners. Thats how societies collapse over night. Or you could just print a lot of money like Venezuela and get the same thing.
3
It would be great if the young were not taxed into serfdom to pay for the elderly. You think they are going to cut SSI? You think families will actually take care of each other? We have had 90 years of social conditioning and most families are in tatters. The average American is just as irresponsible as the government they vote for.
3
Where is that "common vault" going to be located at? Wherever it is, they will have the power.
3
Someone had to hold the bag
3
@Grenadier311 at least you used paragraphs.
3
@Grenadier311 It makes the eyes bleed. Gratitude.
3
The question will be what will happen when all that foreign money comes running into the US? Will inflation increase causing the Fed to raise rates even higher? Or will the Fed tightening strengthen the dollar to the point where foreign deprecated currencies purchase little in the US markets?
3
@johnl.7754 People have often made exuses why women have stopped having kids, but your answer is the most honest one. Historically people in much worse economic conditions have reproduced endlessly. I wish more would be as honest. as you
3
I pasture my chickens. The issue is that it wont scale for folks who want a lot of eggs. I have thought for a while that if city folks want eggs, rural folks are going to have to start growing a lot more birds on their land in a more decentralized manner. Which means more people keeping birds. But either way, that low low cost folks have been use to is gone.
3
Debt per capita is a thing. Eventually it will crush a nation and said nation will default. When that happens, if said nation does not have the resources to maintain its modernity, it goes back pre industrial times. Thats why a shrinking population is bad. That means less demand, which means less of a need for workers. Which means less employment and so on and so on.
2
@bsmithhammer You are right, he called them "disorganized nazis." thats much better isnt it. I think the commenter was trying to juxtapose the current trend in American politics with Germany. But maybe that is to much for you to grasp. The inability to see things from others perspectives often leads to conflict. It doesnt mean you have to agree with them, but it does let you empathize with them.
2
@simonhibbs887 I think the difference is Japan was fully developed. They didnt have well over half their population living in the rice patty villages like their ancestors did for the last 5000 years. That and China's demographic collapse isnt going to be as kind as it is to Japan. Even then I fully expect Japan to start defaulting on debt in the next decade. But we shall have to see I suppose.
2
Per the UN the best way to reduce population growth is the empowerment and education of women, even if it is done via force. I wonder what could possibly help nations who are suffering from low birth rates could do to fix that? I wonder.
2
This is why the nordstream was destroyed. And it had its desired results. I wonder if the pressure nato members will start to have to put on each other will ultimately destroy the trust between those nations and ultimately nato itself, regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine.
2
Based on the SCOTUS ruling he cant. So even if he did want to, which is subject to debate. Not mentioning something isnt being for it, he just cant do it even if he would want to.
2
Germanys best hope is to ban all forms of birth control. Then this winter, when men and women huddle for warmth, what has always happened will happen again. I know, I know, impossible.
2
P A it was clearly a joke. The rest of the post shows that. Yet several people in this thread accused me of calling hitler. The youth have zero sense of humor these days. Red fox or Richard pryor would melt their brains I think.
2
Yes lets produce new consumers. Thats literally the one thing women can do that men cant. And they are choosing not to. Maybe we look at why they arent and address that.
2
You dont. You do what the Japanese have been doing for the last few decades. Basically slowly starving to death. Excess debt will be death to companies.
2
The Euro came around at the peak of production and population. Places today that have population have little production, places that have production are very quickly losing people. We had a global golden age post cold war. And few took notice of it.
2
@jeffr6280 Most of their wealth, the wealthy folks you listed, isnt liquid. Should they be forced to sell their assets, it would have a deflationary impact on the markets of those assets. This would make other Americans poorer as well.
2
Reading the comments its like people dont understand this. Yes the solar you put on your house may reduce your total energy usage from the grid. But all those investments still have to be made to transport the energy you dont generate to you house so it doesnt go dark when the sun goes down and to keep the steam boiler hot to produce the extra power when its needed. Unless you can completely detach yourself from the grid, from any electrical use, standpoint you arent really helping reduce your carbon footprint. In fact you are likely increasing it. And if you dont have a battery wall that can go several days between recharges or if you dont get sun every day, thats just not happening.
2
That the US would give up policing the world.
2
Boy are you in for a surprise. Japan's fertility rate 1.34, South Korea's fertility rate 0.84, and Vietnam's fertility rate 1.96. In south korean only 1 woman in 4 even has a child. And all three of those nations are exporting nations. And with everyones population near max levels, or actively declining, that does not bode well for demand or their long term economies.
2
@tethryss5001 shit indeed.
2
@knoll9812 Its the rate of change thats the problem. In 1973 the fertility rate in Vietnam was 6. Now its 1.9. Its suspiciously been 1.9 for two decades now. I would not be surprised if their numbers are false honestly. Kind of like Chinas. But they are certainly better than China, Japan and South Korea... probably.
2
@Gizziiusa South Korea cant really do much. Its forces are needed where they are. And they have negligible naval assets.
2
Thats until the diesel runs out. Make sure you have plans for when that does happen. Most hospitals and cell towers have about 72-96 hours worth of tanks onsite, well here in the US. I do not know what Ukrainian regulations are. Best of luck to you and yours.
2
two main differences. Germany and Belgium have had their declines since the late 60s, The US never really had a severe drop. Just a very little below replacement level since 1972. And we have had massive amounts of immigration that cover the difference. But even the immigration is drying up in total numbers. It use to be women got married early and had children young, in their early 20s. that meant that there would be a new generation every 20 years. But since the 1970s women have pushed back their family creation time until around 30. That means in any give time period of 60 years people use to have 3 generations. But now only two. Thats a loss of a third. People dont understand how little things like that can lead to a "collapse" but it does.
2
And when we, the west do this (send in massive amounts of munitions), do we really think the Russians wont chose to use tactical nukes against Ukraine? If your logic is they will use them against someone who can respond with a nuclear response, why wouldnt they do that with someone who couldnt?
2
@amk4956 A few issues with those numbers. California has so depleted its aquifer under the central valley that they wont be producing anything in a few decades. There simply wont be any water for those crops. I know several places in the mid west are approaching similar points as well. Then there is the new tax rules that they made for farms in California a few years ago. Most farmers are going to be taxed out of their farms. I am sure many other places that produce have similar issues. Could they build desalinization plants, yeah but the costs of it would make the farms non productive from a price standpoint.
2
Fed needs to get the interest rate to at least the core CPI rate, 5.5%, at the minimum. They need to put their big boy pants on and do a 200 or 300 point hike.
2
@elektrotehnik94 The US is the only nation to really ever achieve something like that, repeatedly and successfully.
2
@Anthony-jo7up Yeah, people that think Japan will just sit on its hands if this happens dont understand the North East Asian theater at all. Because if Taiwan falls, you know they will want to start on the Ryukyus.
2
@thmphll Israel has. And if you look at their demographic breakdown its pretty easy to see why. Only the faithful are reproducing. The majority of the urbanite cohort isnt at replacement level.
2
@calc1657 The future is made one choice at a time. Want a better future, make better choices. Not making a choice is a choice too, but seldom is it a good one.
2
Yup, its a way to shift payment costs. Another diversion to the elderly.
2
@matthewgaudet8001 Tucker was a Democrat for many years. Just like Trump. Just like Reagan. The Irony.
2
Hes a globalist., Democrats and Republicans for the most part support globalism so he doesnt need to be either. He is an unabashed globalist at that. And while I disagree with globalism, I can respect him for always being upfront about it.
2
Biden will end up trying to move the Gazans to the US. Just like Clinton did with the Somalians. It sounds stupid I know, but thats Joe for you.
1
@srwven Their numbers only work when you ignore the manufacturing process. People have been trying to tell them this for over a decade, they dont care. Its like a cult for some people.
1
American labor is to highly skills. Also America, labor force participation rate is 62.6%. Imagine what would happen if the remainder was actually working instead of sucking off welfare.
1
I would have agreed with your last statement. But Trump this election cycle is behaving much much different. One could argue he learned his lesson about civility. Though I know its hard to look at someone with fresh eyes who you already had preconceived notions about.
1
@nazcamain If you look at their demography its a sub section of the population thats having almost all the kids. The religious. They have families out of faith. Its their duty. And they sacrifice to do it. The non religious urbanites in Israel have the same low birth rate as the rest of the west. But when your religious families all have 6 or 7 kids, it gets you above replacement level. And in 100 years, there will only be the sons and daughters of the faithful. Same as in western nations. Religion gives people hope. And hope carries most people through.
1
@Big_Tex This is funny. I read it in Hanks voice.
1
@jaysilence3314 Peter gets a lot of things right, but immigration is a blind spot for him. He largely supports it because immigration artificially boosts GDP, which causes inflation due to deficit spending and then you need more immigration and so on. But eventually this leads to a run away effect. This will eventually lead to collapse though. We are nearing that point in the west. Thats when pogroms begin unfortunately. And again, people like Peter will pivot on their heels and be for it.
1
@jon_jpn Its not a win for the workers already in Canada. They will see their wages stagnate or decline. Thats a political problem. Canada's core problem is that its an export driven economy in a world awash with export driven economies. Its one saving grace is that it shares a border with the US. What Canada needs, which Zeihan didnt overtly say but infered, is internal demand. Hence his comment about older people buying property and then ghosting off to another country to live.
1
@jon_jpn internal demand is primarily from those who create families. Wage stagnation is a problem when you flood any field with foreign workers, domestically, while at the same time subsidizing their education.
1
as a teenager in the 80s I remember auto union members beating Japanese cars with bats and crowbars. And everyone freaking out when the Japanese bought Rockefeller Center. A few years later they had to sell it at a massive discount. Good times.
1
Our friends of course, the Saudi's. lol
1
@buildmotosykletist1987 nah, they just would have to take the longer route. The same one they do when there is typhoon. It will make things a tad more expensive. But they will still get the stuff, unlike China.
1
@tukkajumala I wish it were so, I've been deployed to places where the state imploded. It's always dirty getting to the future.
1
With all their imported Syrian refugees this should be fun. Right now there are what over a million of them there? Germany is going to rip itself apart as it starts to freeze this winter.
1
@bighands69 You would not just be wrong, but utterly and stupendously wrong. Look up the UNs Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). All of the SDG's, all 17, are enacted to reduce growth. They dont care about women, they just want to reduce growth, even as it plunges over the edge of discoverability in many developed nations. Women are being used. And statistically, well educated women, at the Masters and the Grad level and higher rarely marry and dont have hardly any kids. Their divorce rate, when they do marry is about 90% and if they have a child, more often than not its in their late 30s or early 40s. Hard to have more than one when thats when you start. More women in the US now have their first child in their 40s than in their 20s. A people cant recover from that. Thats to say nothing of just the economic repercussions from that.
1
@doomedbook1020 I am not sure if that far is needed. But certainly stopping incentivizing the current behaviors would be a positive moment.
1
Peter doesnt get this. Its not city living or industrialization that drops fertility rates. Japan industrialized in the late 1800s and early 1900s, their birth rate was near 6 child per women and by the time WWII came around is was at 5. So what is it that drops fertility rates, ask the UN. Its part of their global policy. Empowering women drops fertility rates. Because at a certain point women dont "need" men. At that point you have men and women who dont need each other and then pop, population implodes. And I am not sure what numbers Perter is looking at. But the US has been below replacement rates since 1972. The only thing that has pushed off the same collapse now facing other nations is endless immigration. But even the immigration today is not so much people wanting to come to the US, but our foreign policies destoying other nations so those people have no other choice but to move. Even then, most of that immigration isnt coming to the US, they would rather go to another nation like Mexico. Similar culture, language and better purchasing power. There are no good answers going forward.
1
@doctorx1924 Many of the Venezuelans who came up to the US recently have been expressing that. That this isnt what they were told when they decided to move from there to here. And yet I hear know talk of just who is telling these people these things? I imagine its NGO groups like the kind who were helping migrants from Africa to Italy before the EU was forced to hold them to human trafficking standards. I think the EU allowed it because they understand the same policy effects that are effecting population decline in Europe as well, but lack the political spine to admit it. Just like in the US.
1
until the gravy train ends
1
Peter Zeihan pimping his own head merch. He is the Pewdiepie of economic demography.
1
@ian111 Most modern people are blissfully ignorant of the horrors of war.
1
@GlacialScion I think you are misundstanding his comment. Its not like Russian soldiers who disagree have an option of just saying, nah no thanks. And they along with the Ukrainians get fed into the meat grinder. Or maybe you dont care, which is fine. But that speaks to his warn porn comment as well.
1
@GlacialScion So you agree with him and say yuou disagree. Are you the type who argues just for the fun of it? Because, that was the mans point. You are talking politics between nation states, he is talking about individual lives.
1
@GlacialScion Again, nothing you jsut posted has anything to do with that mans post. No one event stated anything about right or wrong. Do you read peoples words or just project your emotions on them?
1
This isnt the first time this has happened recently. Its just the first time the media has just outright ignored it. Hes telling people so they know hes right. Again.
1
The question is would the US risk its carrier assets? Its easy to throw carriers into areas that are not contested. But putting them into contested waters, with a near peer power, is highly unlikely. Okinawa is only 220 miles away. I think Kadena Air Force base would be the center for attack aircraft. Well within all US aircraft ranges. And there is no risk to the carrier groups. If a carrier group goes down, the US will have no choice but to go all in, then China has nothing to lose. And considering how some of the Ryukyus are less than 50 miles from Taiwan, Japan would probably get involved.
1
@beckriv9854 Peter was allegedly a Republican. But he was a globalist Republican, ala George Bush. Globalism in the Republican ranks has been in decline since 2004. But now its on life support. The last gasp of it is its pro Israel policy. But even that will die here in the next decade or so. But this isnt so much a massive change, but a return to what the Republican party was pre Nixon. One might argue that it is an end to the Boomer influence in the Republican party. Republicans are going to be the party of domestic policy and foreign isolation. If one views that as good or bad, well thats just like their opinion man.
1
@catherinedalzell3183 Thats because pregnant women slowed production. Many facilities actually paid bonuses so production would remain high. So there was an unintentional social pressure on women not to have children, to get the bonus and make sure everyone else did too, otherwise you are just being selfish. Then there was the soviet era apartment block housing. One bedroom. Hard to bring kids into that.
1
Boomers are still the largest home owning group in the US. 44% of all US housing is owned by boomers. As boomers die there will be a housing glut. At best their children will get a house, at worst those children will already have a house and want to sell their dead parents home for liquidity and then down goes prices.
1
You assume people in German or Europe will have excess money to buy said cars. With food and energy inflation piling up month over month, they dont now. As things go forward its going to get much worse, economically speaking. Dont forget as these industries shut down all the people employed be them and who are 2ndarily involved with those workers or the production in general will be laid off. If the central government pays them benefits, that will make inflation rise. If they dont, these people wont have any money to spend beyond necessities at least while they have any saved income.
1
@slkttop Nah dont even worry about being sorry. Its cool. But I understand where you are coming from. Unfortunately I think Zeihan is right. The world is in for a really bad time. I think a lot of people, even in the US are in for a much lower standard of living. But we can always pray for the best and expect the worse.
1
What the Swedes have found is the explosives used were of Russian manufacturing. Now if I was going to blow something up and I wanted to make sure it couldnt be traced back to me, I sure as hell wouldnt use explosives that my nation used. The Swedes have nothing other than that. He could have been the Poles or the Swedes themselves that did it using Russian explosives, unless they have footage. If they have footage why have they been sitting on it for for so long? Lets be honest, no one is clean in this fight.
1
State polls are pretty accurate generally. They typically will over or under count every election so you can adjust for them. When you have enough state polls you can do an electoral college simulation. National polls are garbage though.
1
@GeorgeOhYesPlease We appreciate that, the simple rubes that we are. lol
1
Because their economy is imploding. And no amount of fake book keeping can hide it at this point. If you combine that with the fact that their population is about to implode, maybe not to the extreme Peter states, but still it is going to implode on some level. They simply will be crushed by their own debt. The only way they will be able to survive is by exporting. And you cannot be an export dependent economy and a global currency at the same time. The value would be to high and the price of your good would be as well.
1
@jtonxbox1433 Thats because they are to busy paying taxes on money that was spent 30 years ago. Thats what Keynesian economics gets you. Nothing is free. Nothing.
1
@joemccarthy7120 Cool story.
1
@MrRezillo ah deflection. Nice.
1
@bobmorane4926 technically you could use a flywheel. It's old tech. But when they fail it is catastrophic.
1
@priceprice_baby you clearly don't understand how power is made or transported if that is your position.
1
@TheHigherVoltage clearly. Another storage medium was asked for though.
1
@msteele2214 why would a nation, Russia, who has been sanctioned by almost every nation lending material aid to Ukraine need to justify the use of nuclear weapons to those same nations? I think the point is, if the Ukrainians start shooting into Russia, the Russians may be like hey, whatever, whats the worst that can happen?
1
@hydeparkist men don't have children. Women do. It's always a woman's choice. Or are you saying the men of the Netherlands have all gotten vasectomies?
1
@coscinaippogrifo is the typical woman approachable?
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@pierregibson6699 I get that argument. But you don't have to raise your children like that. I raised my sons to be spartan. To value people, relationships and moments, not things. But most people prefer things because it's easy. Things don't have opinions of their own.
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@JCdental I dig the name, that was a great game. That said, I dont disagree with you. I think the modern world drowns people with choices. Choices that arent even remotely realistic if you want to chose other things well. Many people choose without looking at the long term ramifications. But one has to ask, when does personal choice have to be curtailed for the long term survival of the group? We arent there yet, but if things keep up, we will be there in a few generations. It will be interesting what peoples answer is. I hope I live long enough to see it.
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@JCdental I think economies will implode before we get to that level and that will force people together. Limiting options once again. But I have been wrong, from time to time. What a time to be alive regardless.
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@billpetersen298 it's kind of my point. How do you develope a well quaking and functioning fleet of sub crews when they hit their max dosage on their first cruise? In short you don't. 😂
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@brokenrecord3095 DEI is just social policy rammed into corporations and the government. It is the implementation of modern political leftist theory. And it is an utter failure everywhere it has been tried, from the Secret Service to Microsoft. And then there is the dumpster fire at Disney. Thankfully its eating itself its so incompetent.
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The last time Congress passed and actual full budget and not a continuing resolution was in 1997. After a continuing resolution was passed, they then did additional appropriation bills to fund portions of the government. EVERY YEAR since 1997. If Congress fails to pass a budget they should all immediately be removed from their positions.
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@listener523 Thats just it, there hasnt been a budget since 1997, just continuing resolutions. If there was the Gephardt rule would automatically raise the debt ceiling to whatever the amount that Congress budgeted for.
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@listener523 I mean, if we did we be in a depression. I got a farm with livestock, I'm basically self sufficient. If we went back to 1997 spending, millions would die just from cuts to Medicare and medicaid. At that point it becomes a question if you are ok with that. And if you are, well those folks might do some desperate things. But in general I think we should at least freeze spending. But we have probably already spent ourselves over the cliff now anyways.
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@listener523 If you dont see why a 10% drop of the GDP would cause a depression then there really isnt any additional reason to talk. lol Current spending would get us to that point, just slower. We are well past the cliff at this point. Best we can hope for is time to get ready individually.
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@johnmolloy4878 who was virtue signaling?
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@engr.scotty Are you responding to my comment? If so I am not sure how it relates. Can you clarify please?
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@judewarner1536 market crashes are the forest fire that clears out poorly run or overextended businesses. They are a good thing. Not having them causes these huge mega corporations that gobble everything up.
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@wisenber Yeah that first one really is a cultural thing and can be changed. Same with the third. That 2nd one though, thats biology.
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@jeffr6280 Ah well there you go, more inflation. lol
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This brings to mind what environmentalists told West Virginian coal miners when President Obama did his best to shut down the coal industry. Learn to code. Its funny how people react when the shoe is on the other foot.
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Which one of those nations is ethnically diverse? Its not polite to say, but societies that are racially homogeneous have lower health care costs as different groups of people typically have different medical issues. Take Iceland' degenerative hip disease that pretty much everyone there gets. I bet the cost on those is way low because they make it up on volume. Then there is the way Medicare raises the cost of everything in the US. A lot of folks dont understand that because the Medicare system is so horribly byzantine.
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Considering Polands fertility is 1.38. The future is looking very empty for Poland. At least real estate will be cheaper.
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Morgan Allen its not climate change its the polar vortex and arctic oscillation. La Nina has had an amplifying effect this year on both those things.
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Morgan Allen you only think that because thats what they have told you to think. Its cool. I wont insult you. But we are going to agree to disagree I think.
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There isnt anyone in Washington who knows how to do math, only how to shovel pork into the mouths of people of their states.
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Coming to theaters in Fall of 2025, Waffle House Down. Its for really reals.
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@OriginallyJaseace That election was very similar to the 1992 election with Clinton, Bush and Perot. Almost identical results.
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I am pretty sure he was stating that if you took all the waste material currently sitting at nuclear facilities all around the country and included the future waste from their expected lifetimes, including when they themselves get scrapped, Yucca is full. That said they need to start filling it. Old Harry pulled the wool over everyones eyes when he got the money for Yucca mountain. But odds are it will never see one scrap of waste.
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Yea that sounds good until millions of people start to die. Which is what would happen
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@adamlee2550 Peter is a proud Globalist. Immigration is ok to him. Doesnt matter if its legal, illegal, or against the will of the people of the nation the folks are immigrating too. Its why he is always pushing for Japan and South Korea to open to immigration. Immigration kills national cohesion and enables multinationals to get better trade deals.
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@Skritshell what do they expect as far as harvest with lower fertilizer use, if you know?
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@geocam2 Thats what people dont understand. Biden is the only one who can give in and have it not wreck him. McCarthy had to make concessions to become Speaker. If he gives in, he loses his position. And then the House and the government basically stops because the Republicans are a disorganized clown show.
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This is a problem that will fix itself. As the population implodes the nation state will implode taking all the services it provides to the ash heap of history. Women will once again have to leverage their reproductive ability for safety and security. Children at that point become the retirement plan, primarily for the woman since men often die way earlier. This is the way humanity has always been, except for the last 100 years in most of the world.
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Do you think automation would survive a cost benefit analysis with a ever decreasing demand base? Serious question, since you are an automation engineer. If i may ask, is your expertise specific to a certain field?
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Clinton did it in 1995. You would probably blame the Republicans, so its whatever. The debt ceiling isnt the problem, its just another symptom. The problem is that Congress has not passed an actual whole budget since 1997. In 1979 the Gephardt rule was instituted in all budgets. It automatically raised the debt ceiling. But since 1977 there have only been 4 actual budgets passed by congress. Most Americans are utterly ignorant on the maleficence of both parties in Congress. Mostly because the average voter is moronic. But go ahead, stick to your tribalism. You cannot expect to run a fiscally responsible nation via continuing resolutions.
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I like Peter on a lot of stuff. But this is a blind spot for him. He is a pro immigration globalist. I dont understand why though. He knows where that leads.
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@ThatGuyWayOverThere How is the migration "problem", people coming from the middle east and sub saharan africa, caused by Europeans not reproducing in numbers needed to replace their own population? Care to square that circle for me? More like NGOs funded by people who have an agenda, not dissimilar to what is happening and the US southern border. This is a effort to destabilize the west. The question is who is behind it.
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With water and sewage offline, Gaza will become what all cities historically were, disease factories.
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The Biden admin needs a win. Its been loss after loss. I think their position is that being strong against Russia will be seen as a win. And they are broadcasting it more to the domestic audience I think. Its certainly odd seeing those on the left struggle with it and those on the right as well.
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@shirogamiakatsuki2423 And then all their scientists flee to other parts of the world to work on other nations nuke programs. You must be under 25. We have already been here before. Russia doesnt need to be pushed to oblivion. Its a literal battered nation that has ptsd. If you think its going to give up its nukes or even be able to pay to keep them ready, you are mad.
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@watchlover7750 People have short memories all around it seems.
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@shirogamiakatsuki2423 After the soviet union collapsed their nuke scientists went all over the world. Its why India and Pakistan are pointing nukes at each other.
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@shirogamiakatsuki2423 Why does voting matter? Like Republics and Democracies dont go to war. If a nation or a people chose to have a dictatorship thats their choice. If they want a theocracy, thats their choice. What business of it to go meddling in other nations internal matters? Isnt that what the Democrats have been screaming about the 2016 election? Ive already fought in four theaters. You people love cashing checks with other peoples names on it.
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@shirogamiakatsuki2423 The people in China choose time and time again, all through there long bloody history, that they want a strong man. Its no point in fighting against it with them. They would rather live and be slaves, thats their choice. And stop with the straw man arguments. If you want to know my opinion ask. People like you are transparent. I dont give a wet shit about Ukraine. I care about the US and our problems. If I and the US spent all our time and energy trying to slay every dragon and right every wrong in the world, we would exhaust ourselves and die. I blame NATO and US foreign policy over the last decade and a half as much as Russia. But ultimately Russia pulled the trigger, so what. And I am sure Russians were clicking their tongues when the US invaded Afghanistan. I dont think you have bad intentions, you are just incredibly naive, and I am going to guess that you are pretty young and idealistic. Thats not a bad thing in of itself. But if you believe in a cause, you go fight. Dont make others do it for you.
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@ancesthntr The question is how long can they supply those 9 brigades. That will decide if the Ukrainians push through or the Russians repulse them.
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@shorewall South Korea and Japan are always in disagreement. Always. South Korea could be invaded again by the North and the Chinese and if the Japanese offered to help the South Koreans would tell them to go to hell. The Philippines are different. They are a very forgiving people. But they lack a modern military. They are in the process of building a 50 boat navy, but I doubt it will be completed. Most Americans couldnt even point to Taiwan on a map. The US is stepping back from the world. The world is going to need to put its big boy pants on.
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@rasmuslernevall6938 I can tell you, it starts with the letter F. Women can be economic powerhouses boosting GDP so that governments can spend and borrow more money or they can have the next generation. Its hard, damn near impossible, for a woman to do both. Its even harder to do it when you are hitting the lower and middle economic strata of income earners with competition that lowers their wages even further by importing massive amounts of no skill and low skill workers. Find me a nation without the F word and I will show you a nation with either a growing or stable population.
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@landontesar3070 Leaf is being phased out my friend. Their sales never met the production levels. They took losses on each one sold but made it back on government credits.
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Its funny that you mention early automobile history. Electric automobiles were the first, Ben Franklin is believed the first to draw up plans for an electric horseless carriage. In the 1880s in Europe, almost all automobiles were electric until, Diesel came out with his engine and people saw just how much more better and practical it was. When Henry Ford came out with his stupidly cheap Fords, no one could compete and they all died. He would have seen Ford for the genius he was in his business' accumen.
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@TrendyStone range yes, price point without subsidies and recharging issues aside.
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@sebastianlahns8023 If you think teachers teach what they want thats just not the case. They have state mandated lesson plans they have to teach. This isnt the 1970s or 80s anymore. Its why so many got out of teaching. You get tired of teaching lies.
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@ancillarity Russia has tried, twice. Well the Soviet Union once and The Russian Federation once. They were rejected both times.
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@ron88303 The Soviets put missiles in Cuba to counter the US Jupiter missiles in Turkey. Those missiles were not removed until after the Cuban missile crisis. Even today though the US has nuclear bombs, not missiles, in Turkey.
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@j.langer5949 I know right. Its not like one has to approve of Russia's actions to understand why they may feel threatened. Nato should have been shut down after the Warsaw Pact was gone. The Europeans could just form their own military system. But they want US dollars to fund nato. The only people I feel bad for are the conscripts getting pulled in and the civilians caught in the fighting.Europe and Russia can kill themselves for all I care. I mean they wont even say who did the pipeline bombing.
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@xlukas93 We already invaded Mexico. But the North didnt want to admit it into the Union. Why? Because it was south of the Mason Dixon line and would have been slave states. It would have forever shifted the balance of power in the US to slave states.
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@thmphll While you are correct, in some religious groups in the US the fertility rate has dropped, but the average protestant church goer in the US has 2.5 kids, well above replacement rate. Catholics and Morons, not so much. Mormons are now at 2.03 and Catholics at 1.6.
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@allthenewsordeath5772 right. But the fertility rate I was referring to with catholics are those who attend mass weekly.
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@ Thats exactly when immunizations started that drastically reduced the death rates from small pox.
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@DieFlabbergast lmao you say immigration. Thats an incorrect term. The correct term is invasion and forced assimilation by the new ascendant ethnicity and culture. There isnt going to be immigration. This is historically normal. Its just in recent history its been unusual.
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I like how the Navy standing is identical to right before WWII.
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@TrendyStone Which if you believe the Feds own stated current policy would cause them to raise rates higher, no?
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The Republican party has never been a monolith. It was created with one main tent pole, anti slavery. If you agreed with that, everyone was welcome.
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Republicans have backed labor when it was in accordance to their political goals. Same as how Democrats would throw labor under the bus when it was convenient for theirs.
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Hes a globalist. Everything he sees is filtered through that. No such thing as a bad immigrant to him.
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All any nation state has to do is to make bitcoin illegal. Holding bitcoin illegal, just like the US did with gold in the 1930s. Bitcoin is a neat tech, and it will have its place. But as any sort of major currency of exchange, no chance. Its to volatile of an asset.
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The Japanese are trying to do everything they can to keep women int he work force to keep their GDP up as long as they can. Otherwise their nation will be crushed by their own debt. And as a nation that imports everything, going bankrupt will send them back to the 18th century. Seriously no one in the world is addressing the underlying issue. Women arent having children, for whatever reason. Address that, and this problem will resolve. The UN is really clear on this, the quickest way to reduce a nations fertility rate is to empower and educated women. So how do you reverse the effects of that without tearing your civilization apart?
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@dangonzalezb apparently you don't understand how oil and natural gas are bought. Interesting you start off with telling someone to shut up. Are you mentally ill and incapable of civil discussion?
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@dangonzalezb See ya on the field 07
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@secretname4190 Tucker is a Classical Liberal recovering from his neoconservative youth. He is, what in the 1960s, was a Democrat. How times have changed. But people just hear a party name and go all tribal.
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@ClannCholmain I would agree we are at the best time in history materially. But we are literally at the end of a golden age. And the ramifications of that will be significant. I am not sure what beliefs you think I disagree with. I didnt state any. Or are you talking about globalism, which I dont consider a belief? Can you clarify your statement for me?
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@ClannCholmain The US was wealthy before globalism. It will still be wealthy after. If its people will it.
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@ClannCholmain not when you adjust for purchasing power and debt burden.
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People use to have kids in caves and huts made of cattle feces. Economics isnt the issue. This is a cultural damage issue.
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@simonhibbs887 I know, there had to be some sort of dark conspiracy. lol
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This is easily resolved. You increase interest rates. Then it is no longer an economic problem but a political one. That would require the Federal government to reduce spending and address its out of control budgets and unsustainable welfare programs. The side effect will be what should be, most Americans living a much lower standard of living. We can do that the easy way, by increasing interest rates or we can do that the hard way with stagflation. I am pretty sure Congress just chose the hard way with their most recent money spending activity.
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Why would you need to automate when demand will be dropping? The idea is so foreign to most that you cant even conceive of it can you?
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The Leopard 2 has never been in tank to tank combat to my recollection. The Germans may fear that it will not stand up to the trials of combat. Lets not forget Arms industries are part of national GDP. And as we have seen with Russian weapon systems, they dont always meet expectations. There is more than just sending the Leopards to Ukraine, from the German position.
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The pie has gotten bigger, its a mud pie worth nothing, but its still a pie.
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@GaryBickford And it was all done on debt. Thats future spending that cant be done. It was never sustainable. The next few decades will show this.
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