Youtube hearted comments of worn down (@worndown8280).

Had a friend who worked at salesforce. They had a class that was known as diversity hires and then the actual workers. I have to assume that most of the tech industry is like this. There are a huge subset of men that just love working in tech. That makes them wealthy, but that always draws locusts. But no matter how big the swarm, locusts always die.
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My ex wife regretted having kids. I told her fine. Go live your best life. She was upset when she got neither child support nor spousal support. Why she would think you would get child support without having custody of the kids is mind boggling. Some people just dont think. But having kids was one of the greatest things I have done. Never regretted it. Even when my oldest totaled my truck.
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Just this last week companies in Nashville have laid off over 500 people. One was a milk producer, they couldnt keep pace with peoples cutting milk consumption due to the price increases. This doesnt include the several hundred people who were laid off from the community colleges around Nashville due to collapsing enrollment. Wait until the next .5 Fed increase, And then the one after that, and the one after that. Its going to be ugly for people. It wont just be tech that gets hammered.
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People need to understand how bad these cuts can get. I bought a home in Dec 2007 from DR Horton in California. It was listed for 535k, it was marked down to 505k. When I bought it I walked out of the office paying 280k. A year later my house was worth less than I paid for it. But I was happy. If math is hard for some, thats a 48% price cut. My house "bottomed out" at $187,000, thats a 66% price drop from original listing price.
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Almost 200k, good for you. Keep at it.
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These reduced prices would be good, IF mortgage rates were back at 3%. They arent. You will have to see further price drops to see prices that are reasonable. You still see home pricing on Redfin, Zillow and the rest showing 5.5% interest rates on their price estimates. The average American buyer right now would probably get around a 7% interest rate at best.
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If anyone is interested in the worlds first bubble, the Dutch Tulip bulb bubble in 1637, the graph looks exactly the same. If you do look it up, look how fast the decline was. Peak was Feb 3, crashed to near zero by May first. At its highest Tulip bulbs were going for 6 times the average Dutch workers annual wages.
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You stuff always makes me laugh, but in a good way. Keep up the good work.
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Roughly 84% of American women have kids. Sightly more than 60% of American men have kids. That will tell you what you need to know why 4B is being pushed. Its a competition issue.
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Not 1929, we are exactly in the same situation as 1948. Post war the massive government spending had drastically distorted the economy and we went from double digit inflation one year to massive deflation in another and then back to inflation then deflation. We are going to go through something similar here.
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As someone who use to work of Kaiser, there is a fundamental misunderstanding by you all on how it operates. Its a three teared system. Hospitals, Clinics and Pharmacy and then the Insurance. The latter two are for profit. The hospital is not for profit. Before the AC Kaiser would use massive amounts of charity care as a tax shelter for all the profits its two other groups made. All the physicians are owners in it. There is no negotiating. The physicians dont even need to pay for their office staff. Kaiser does. Kaiser is a good system because all the treatment is in house and its already paid for. Its why Kaiser has such a low refusal rate. And most of the refusals are for non Kaiser members who want treatment there. Kaiser built its system for its members, not the general public. One of the reasons costs have increased is the State of California forcing health care providers to take Medicaid patients. The State only pays 11 cents on the dollar for treatment, (this is back in 2019) and thats assuming you did everything right. Other wise the payment request is just ignored buy the state. Then there is the annual licensing requirements for Medicare. Again in 2019 licensing for an inpatient bed on just the Medical/Surgical (non telemetry) was over 100k a year. People have no idea how much government sucks out of healthcare. That said, the profits on things like drugs are stupefying. But again, thats the governments fault. Its against the law for pharmacists to even tell patients that they could get a Rx cheaper just by paying cash. Add to it the effects of the ACA limiting charity care right offs and you have exploding costs. It was easy to see this was going to happen. In the case of United Health Care, they have publicly traded stock. And the stock price is going to be defended to the death. Personally I blame the businesses who buy insurance coverage from them. You get what you pay for and you get what you tolerate.
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I think you are focusing on involuntary foreclosures. During the GFC many of the homes foreclosed on were voluntary foreclosures, aka, jingle mail. It remains to be seen how much that will be the case this time. But with inflation pushing more and more people to the edge, it may just not be an option to refi into a 40 year loan. Can you imagine a 40 year old couple refi'ing to a 40 year loan? They would be in their 80s before they paid their home off. Which means they cant really afford their how and better in letting it go. Also for those worried about the RIETs, during the GFC they lost on average 72% of their value. And they were better capitalized then than they are now.
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Even the areas that are "flourishing" home wise, often are only doing so because of outside money. They raise the price of real estate higher than the old locals can afford. Eventually, when there is no more new money from the outside coming in, prices slide back to the median. That is what we are going to see in a lot of these growth states. You are already seeing it in Tennessee.
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I was going to post this. I am glad I am not the only one who understood this. Once the Yamnaya pushed into eastern Europe though, the basically interbred with the female populations and the local male populations just disappeared. That said the Yamnaya were also a darker skinned people than modern Europeans.
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When everyone makes 85k a year, 85k isnt a lot of money. Its the median income. Thats the problem with California. People see high salaries but that always inflates the cost of everything. Its all make believe.
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If the Fed pivots before the current inflation is destroyed we will have the worst of both worlds. We will have an economy damaged by the previously increasing interest rates and job losses but once the pivot happens inflation will explode and we will have something every modern economist think is impossible, an inflationary depression/recession. Eventually to fix the economy you will have to raise interest rates, again, this time exceeding the inflationary rate to kill it. But in the mean time the economy gets wrecked. People lose jobs assets lose value and that includes homes. Throw in demographic trends and this makes inflation via wages, due to lack of workers, almost impossible to control. The next few years will be interesting.
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There is more sub prime auto debt now than there was sub prime home debt in 2006. Then you add student debt, mortgage debt, corporate debt, government debt. The debt is going to crush everything. And then you add in it the demographic trends, this will not only be worse than 2008, but it wont recover, at least in the housing market.
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The unemployment rate is a lie, you really have to look at the labor force participation rate. And right now we are equal to the mid 80s when a lot of wives still stayed home to keep house and raise children. The economy is worse than anyone thinks.
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This fails to take into account how inflation is affecting people with fixed rate mortgages. They may have a 3% mortgage, but what if that was the only reason they could buy? With food budget costs near 30 year highs, increases in automobile, and electricity, many homeowners may be nearing the breaking point. And if layoffs start, poof! 2008 all over again.
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The economy was never "good" since the last crash. It was papered over and interest rates went to the ground. We never allowed it to go down to where it could recover on its own. And then we pumped it up more. Its still going to go down to that level, and now we dont have anyway to stop it.
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Already seeing 30% price cuts here in Tenn for real estate with a lot of land. For the price that they want the appraisals dont come in high enough because they dont care about the land, just the improvements. So the banks wont loan then moneys. Ive even seen a few properties go from 600k to 350k. And they are still overpriced. And they all sit empty. Also with the three year bond being at 4.5 % you can now get a higher rate of return than most rental real estate gets in the US. So why would people invest in real estate at this point?
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We dont have the electrical generation capacity to charge these electric vehicles. We would have to triple our energy output to charge them. No way the greens allow that to be done. Electric cars just arent going to cut it.
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I would encourage anyone who is looking to buy to wait until next year. Octobers business numbers are very bad. 47% of all businesses that employ over half the private sector employees in the US couldnt make rent. The amount of layoffs coming are going to devastate the economy. You may think your job is secure, but it very well could be at risk without you knowing. Its literally 50/50 at this point.
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If the economy loses a million and a half jobs its ok. We have 10 million currently open. That is the problem. There is so much excess demand, from a decade of Fed purchasing assets and endless money printing and low interest rates, that a recession and job losses are the only way to address it. The bad news is that losing a million and a half jobs isnt going to be enough, that will mean we still have 8.5 million jobs open. And because of boomer retirement we will have at minimum 400k new openings every year. So interest rates will be going higher and longer than most people can believe. Things have only started. And once oversea markets start imploding, like Japan, China and Germany are currently doing (wow the next top 3 economies), all the things they once supplied us will have to be built here in north America again. This will increase job demand even more leading to more inflation. This is what the end of globalization looks like. Everyone being poorer.
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And student loan payments are still frozen. You can bet when Congress debates the debt ceiling that is going to end. Lots of young folks have a lot of student debt and auto debt to pay down. There is more sub prime auto debt now than there was sub prime home debt in 2006.
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Those in the know have to take time to change their positions. If you do it all at once, if you are a big enough player, the market notices. But if you do it slowly, day after day, You can completely change your position without anyone knowing. Thats been going on since Nov of 2021. Most of these big players have fully changed their positions now. So everything can fall. But I got to disagree with you about the Fed sounding the alarm. People wouldnt have paid attention. Just like people today think the Fed isnt serious about keeping interest rates higher longer. People just keep saying pivot pivot pivot. At the end of the day people hear what they want to hear and see what they want to see.
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That email message at the end was nice. I dont know what you to have, but you are lucky to have it.
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I would recommend the Dokkodo by Musashi and Meditations by Marcus Aurelius. The Dokkodo can be read in minutes, daily, to reinforce itself on you. And there is no other replacement for Meditations. It is one of the greatest works of Man. Most books just parrot it.
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Since you work in that area, can you explain the economics of this area? How do people afford 10k a month rent or a mortgage on a 5 million dollar home in a normal residential neighborhood?
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These companies are still playing chase the tigers tail. These cuts arent enough to draw in people to take the risk to buy in. By Dec they will offer even better deals to clear this bad debt off their books before the 2nd quarter starts, just like in Dec of 2007. What doesnt get sold will be sold for even less come the new year. We already did this in 2007 and 2008, except then we had lowering interest rates. What makes these people think that its going to be different or better this time with interest rates climbing?
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In Dustborn, you are unironically evil. Thats the problem with "woke" people. They dont get that they have gone so far around that they are now the bad guys. It would be comedic if it wasnt going to get people killed.
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Please do a video on actual sale prices. Anyone can throw a property on the market for insane amounts. They can cut it down to get a bidding war going. But what matters is the selling price. Its probably still to early to tell, but that will tell you the truth of the matter in a market.
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Realtors need to start being honest with their clients and tell them if they want to move their house then need to drop it at least a few percentage points below their nearest competition. I sometimes wonder if these people have the homeowners best interest at heart. Its only going to get worse from here.
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@realestatemindset Yup either way I mean its a dumpster fire. Thats what happens when you just make it rain money. Monetary supply must have a natural and not a political constraint. It was a good video. I always enjoy your content.
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Thank you for finally doing this video. Its horrible seeing comments from people who dont understand how percentages work. We do a horrible job teaching math in this country.
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