Comments by "Hyok Kim" (@hyokkim7726) on "Can Poland’s Military stop Russia?" video.
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@mat05usz Very simple, Russia will offer oil and gas at discount to the rest of the world.
EU/NATO countries will try to get oil from OPEC, Venezuela, and U.S. of course, and that's one big reason why U.S. is supporting the war in Ukraine, to displace Russian oil/gas from EU/NATO.
The problem is EU/NATO will have to pay premium to get the non-Russian oil/gas, and this will hurt their economy, reducing their standard of living, and economic competitiveness vs. the rest of the world.
As time goes by, this will have exponential effect of hurting EU/NATO, and some the lesser countries in EU/NATO will start defecting, buying Russian oil/gas. EU/NATO will either have to discipline these countries, or end up losing credibility.
If they try to discipline, most likely through additional sanctions against them, it will only drive them into Putin, and that's what he wants.
If they expel them from NATO/EU, they weaken NATO/EU, and it will drive them into Putin anyway.
This is a no win situation for EU/NATO.
That's basically how Napoleonic empire ended up unraveling, through 'Continental Blockade' to weaken Britain, and it did hurt Britain initially.
So what did Britain do? Why expand trade outside Europe!
... and trade with Europe through black market!
Most notable violators of this sanction were Portugal, and Russia. So Napoleon decide to punish them: that's how he got involved in 'Spanish Ulcer' and failed invasion of Russia, and weakening of his coalition, and the strengthening of his enemy coalition, resulting in Waterloo, eventually.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continental_System
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ruble-currency-2022/
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/russia-says-rubles-pay-dollar-130007516.html
https://www.newsweek.com/sanctions-destroying-us-dollar-status-top-currency-1580619
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@zbiku82 Very simple, Russia will offer oil and gas at discount to the rest of the world.
EU/NATO countries will try to get oil from OPEC, Venezuela, and U.S. of course, and that's one big reason why U.S. is supporting the war in Ukraine, to displace Russian oil/gas from EU/NATO.
The problem is EU/NATO will have to pay premium to get the non-Russian oil/gas, and this will hurt their economy, reducing their standard of living, and economic competitiveness vs. the rest of the world.
As time goes by, this will have exponential effect of hurting EU/NATO, and some the lesser countries in EU/NATO will start defecting, buying Russian oil/gas. EU/NATO will either have to discipline these countries, or end up losing credibility.
If they try to discipline, most likely through additional sanctions against them, it will only drive them into Putin, and that's what he wants.
If they expel them from NATO/EU, they weaken NATO/EU, and it will drive them into Putin anyway.
This is a no win situation for EU/NATO.
That's basically how Napoleonic empire ended up unraveling, through 'Continental Blockade' to weaken Britain, and it did hurt Britain initially.
So what did Britain do? Why expand trade outside Europe!
... and trade with Europe through black market!
Most notable violators of this sanction were Portugal, and Russia. So Napoleon decide to punish them: that's how he got involved in 'Spanish Ulcer' and failed invasion of Russia, and weakening of his coalition, and the strengthening of his enemy coalition, resulting in Waterloo, eventually.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continental_System
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ruble-currency-2022/
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/russia-says-rubles-pay-dollar-130007516.html
https://www.newsweek.com/sanctions-destroying-us-dollar-status-top-currency-1580619
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@zbiku82 ''there is soonay holes in your statement that I don't know where to start.''
You got a hole yourself.
''First of all... China.... Russia has nothing to offer rather than fossil fuel.''
PRC has very little fuel to export, fossil or not.
Russia has a lot of cheap, affordable fossil fuel, that the rest of world depend on: most 3rd world countries do not have the luxury of going off fossil fuel. If the West do not buy Russian energy, she will simply expand her sales to the rest of the world outside the West.
...and even EU/NATO countries, non-fossil fuels are far more expensive than fossil fuel in general, and certainly even more expensive than cheap Russian fossil fuel.
What this means is that the standard of living for average peoples of EU/NATO will go down, since almost everything depends on fuel, cost of pretty much everything will go up, way up, and not just on absolute scale, but also relative to the rest of the world.
What this means is that the economic competitiveness of the West will erode relative to the rest of the world. So double whammy will hit the West, people will have less discretionary income, less money to spend for 'fun' stuff, since they will have to pay more for 'essential' items, like food, transportation, utility, and it will cost more money to manufacture items in the West, since energy, transportation/shipping, etc will cost more, meaning the West will have to, either charge more money for the same items and/or make less profit for the same item, meaning less profit from export to the rest of the world.
Over a period time, this will have accumulative effect, the longer the sanction last, the bigger economic damage to the West, out of proportion to the length of time sanction lasts.
This will result in some nations in the West, cheating, buying cheap Russian oil/gas through black market, and EU/NATO will be faced with dilemma. To maintain credibility, EU/NATO will have to either punish the cheaters, or expel the cheaters.
What if the cheaters don't want to be punished? What if the expelled cheaters simply go to Russia?
This was what unraveled Napoleon's empire. He decided to damage Britain by sanction, aka 'The Continental Blockade', and it did damage Britain, initially, so what did Britain do?
Why, simply expand the trade with the rest of the world, outside Europe! And still trade with the cheaters from the Continent, notably, Portugal, and Russia.
Napoleon felt compelled to punish Portugal, and Russia to maintain his credibility: thus 'The Peninsula War' aka 'Spanish Ulcer' and the failed invasion of Russia.
These two wars bled Napoleon's resource dry to the point his coalition was severely weakened, while the opposition got the defectors, and became strong.
The result was Waterloo, and the end of Napoleonic hegemony, and the beginning of the Great Britain, the Empire Sun never sets!
''Most of China India trades is conducted with the west.''
Not even close, only about 30% for PRC, and the same for India as well.
https://www.worldstopexports.com/chinas-top-import-partners/
https://www.worldstopexports.com/indias-top-10-exports/
Remember if the West were to launch sanctions against PRC and India, it would hurt the West more than it would hurt PRC, and India.
The West now will have to manufacture domestically the stuffs that can be far more cheaply bought from PRC and India, meaning, the standard of living will go down even more drastically, and people will have even less money to buy 'fun' stuff, meaning the West will become far less relevant to the rest of the world as trading partners, meaning far less influence.
Whereas both PRC and India can still manufacture the stuff they need to use, just less export, meaning less income, but at least they wouldn't have to worry about inflation as much as the West, so long as they keep buying cheap Russian oil/gas. Yes, they would get hurt, just not as much as the West, over the long haul, this will grant them relative advantage economically against the West.
''Prices of oil gas might cause recession but Western countries are many many many times richer and economies way mire robust.
Russia has GDP on a level. Of single European country... Nit very impressive for biggest country in the world''
GDP for the West will go down drastically due to people having less money to spend for 'fun' stuff, due to having to pay more for essential stuff, due to the inflation, whereas GDP for the rest of the world, and Russia will not go down as much, relatively over the long haul, this will have the effect of increasing their importance in the world relative to the West.
The biggest winners in this scenario will be OPEC, Venezuela, maybe Norway, and ROK. ROK will not join oil/gas embargo against Russia, if anything ROK will increase her investment in Russia, due to less competition due to the West pulling out of Russia. Whatever Russia needs technologically she cannot develop at competitive cost, ROK will provide, as much as she can, making a lot of money for herself, so long as those items are not sanction list.
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@snowdogthewolf '' I guess you didn't notice the effect this Putin atrocity has effected NATO.''
U.S. abetting and assisting ROK's war crimes during the Korean War didn't affect the Cold War. Are you implying NATO is being racist?
''New members, increased solidarity, reaffirming common defense (Article 5), massively (MASSIVELY) increased military budgets of not only NATO members but hopeful members as well.''
You forgot, all based on the foundation of sand: One cannot maintain a strong defense budget when economy is weakening, and NATO's economy is weakening: unsustainable.
''During this same time, Russia has lost a significant potion of its military readiness (most experts agree approximately 1/3, which is staggering).''
You mean, the very same people who had, and still support the U.S. failure in Iraq and Afghanistan?
''Now Russia is asking China for help and sending in ancient equipment (obsolete T62 tanks, for example) in desperation.''
anonymous
''If the US sent equally obsolete M103's or M60 battle tanks into Iraq or Afghanistan, I would be worried and know something was critically wrong with the current state of our military.''
U.S. is sending obsolete SPGs to Ukraine.
''Russia is currently doing this.''
Why not? After all, U.S. did use many obsolete equipment in Vietnam successfully, at least at the tactical level.
''There will come a point of financial, logistical and monetary equilibrium concerning support for Ukraine from NATO and other Western nations, but it will continue to be significant and continuous.''
NOT! U.S. military canceled F-35 as too expensive, unsustainable! F-35 would have cost only 1.5 trillion over 55 year life span: If U.S. continued to support Ukraine at the current level, it would cost 9.5 trillion over the same life span. NOT happening.
U.S. is already on the verge of renegading the deal made in supporting big tech investment in U.S. some 54 billion, U.S. pledged 56 billion? Really, U.S. is wasting the money that could be used to support tech investment into a money pit, at the most corrupt nation in Europe.
''The real concern for Russia is what Ukraine will look like 5-10 years from now after the war.''
Ukraine by then would not exist. The West would be sick and tired of Ukraine and move on to some other 'cause', just like U.S. forgot about Iraq and Afghanistan.
''The assistance from the West will be unabated after the war to modernize Ukraine's military (now all NATO standard weaponry), rebuild its cities (now modern cities much like the Western powers did for Germany, Japan and Korea after those wars) and jumpstart their economy.''
It's not going to happen since Ukraine wouldn't exist by then.
''In 20 years from now... and that's just down the road progressively speaking... Ukraine will be an incredibly powerful European power and likely a NATO member.''
You must be dreaming, for that to happen the West will have to pump money after money into a money pit, and hope Ukraine gets rid of rampant corruption: they are not happening, not with the inflation, and choking the economic foundation of the West by Russia
''They will possibly have an NBC program and a seething hatred for Russians.
Ukraine will be a poisonous thorn in Russia's side for generations now.''
All the more reason why Russia won't let up.
''It's unfortunate for peace, which is what we all want.''
You gotta be joking: the current U.S. policy is driven by enabling MIC to make money, not peace.
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