Comments by "dixon pinfold" (@dixonpinfold2582) on "Anders Puck Nielsen" channel.

  1. In 2018 someone I knew was making close to $1k a day at online poker. I watched as he played five or ten games at once, and saw his marvellous loot obtained on shopping trips. His secret, he told me, was playing only against suspected Russians when it was evening in western Russia. Unlike people anywhere else, Russians, he said, always bluff and never fold. Although my knowledge of military affairs is scant, it is for this reason that I lean towards a belief that a war of attrition against Russia is potentially winnable.
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  2. I can see that European security is truly your wheelhouse.👍  For me this was time very well spent. Thank you.
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  3.  @John_Smith_86  He spoke of fluctuating exchange rates as a weakness of measuring by Nominal GDP, which is correct. He did not say that fluctuating exchange rates affect the validity of GDP at PPP as a measure. Therefore I have downvoted your post as incorrect.
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  4. Anders, in my opinion your reports this summer have reached new heights of clarity, logical coherence and verbal acuity. Literally no room for further improvement.
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  5.  @andre8860  NATO can defend itself. Are you in denial about the Winter War and 1979-89 Afghanistan too?
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  6.  @Muddy283  Reminds me of the Russians who consider Americans just Englishmen.🙄
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  7. If the vicissitudes of the English language had gone differently, instead of peace we might have a word meaning the same thing but having a literal sense of successful deterrence. It's a deterrent which must be found. (This was suggested to me by something I read: "The art of deterrence is the art of peace.")
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  8.  @davidkottman3440  I agree with your last remarks. It's been equivalent to around 5% of the military budget over the past 32 months. Compared to the tens of trillions of dollars of American wealth in grave danger in any Authoritarian-Axis-run world, it's lunch money.
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  9.  @wookie2222  Please explain. The famous violence of 1066 involved no Scandinavians. They were Frenchman of Norse descent, but...
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  10. What happened last time? I saw the video in that nice outdoor setting. Something went wrong?
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  11.  @Gloverfield  Ukraine is "greedy"? Greedy for asking for help merely to continue to exist? Greedy for asking for help to keep Russia from advancing on your own country? Omg. How about Lithuania? Is Lithuania "greedy"? It remains in existence itself thanks only to direct support from other nations. Otherwise Russia would overrun it in days.
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  12. ​ @Antares2  Europe already does have one of its own alliances in the 10-country Joint Expeditionary Force. You're in it, dude. The JEF comprises the UK, Netherlands, the five Nordic countries and the Baltic republics — altogether home to about 120m people.
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  13. This sort of needs an update now that we are told Prigozhin and Putin met at the Kremlin since the mutiny, I'd say.
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  14.  @davidg3517  Thanks for that explanation. I've noticed for some time now that everybody can game this platform except for what I regard as good people speaking the truth.
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  15.  @Introspection-01  Aid helps them. They're a drowning people extending a hand upwards out of a flood. But I'm guessing anyone who needs to have this explained to them will never have the moral vision to see it anyway. That's just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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  16. ​ @irongron  Russia came through the decades of communism pretty unscathed as a feudal and fairly medieval country. It's really, really deep in them. Politically I think they most resemble Africa, and Putin is the counterpart of Robert Mugabe, Mobutu Sese Seko, Idi Amin, Omar al-Bashir and Col. Gaddafi, among many others. He even bears an uncanny and haunting facial resemblance to Macias Nguema, the literally insane meatpacker of Equatorial Guinea.
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  17. To me it appears that Ukraine's allies are gambling that 1/15th of Russia's spending (or whatever fraction seems to match Russia's expenditure) will suffice to end the war on terms favourable to Ukraine. I say this because the West's ramp-up of military production has been very slight. This strikes me as entailing considerable risk.
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  18. A 100x more worthwhile discussion would be about how to counter Russia's information war against us here in our own countries. I was hoping that's what this was.
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  19. Sorry, but saying huge as "yooj" is the nearly-infallible sign of a nincompoop. Saying Ukraine as "YOO-krane" (instead of yoo-KRANE) is almost as bad. These are the pitiable stigmata of clue-destitute American conservative men. (Nothing against American conservative men per se, only the clue-bereft ones.)
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  20. Brilliant is right. Too brilliant, actually. I wish it were less so, so I could disregard it. ☚
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  21. The outcome of this war is about defense production more than anything else. To put it in admittedly oversimplified terms, whoever has the most equipment and ammunition wins.   Things like the will to do battle, financial resources, strategizing by the top generals and all the rest largely either come out of or feed into this most central of all factors. That's just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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  22.  @a.brekkan4965  What? As everyone knows, bravo means Well done!
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  23. It's just a continuation of Russia's longstanding disinformation campaign aimed at the entire world including Russia itself. It leverages existing anti-Western sentiment at home and in the developing world, as well as in the Western element that thinks We're So Bad. This sentiment wherever it is needs to be primed regularly lest thinking regress to the mean of rationality. It's maintenance and it's straight out of Goebbels' playbook.
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  24. Pronouncing the word huge as "yooj" is the nearly-infallible sign of a nincompoop. Saying Ukraine as "YOO-krane" (rather than yoo-KRANE) is a sign almost as bad. These are the pitiable stigmata of clue-destitute American conservative men. (And I have nothing against American conservative men per se, only the clue-bereft ones.)
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  25.  @PenskyMaterial  The pride factor could easily be outweighed at any given moment by necessity. Have you been at Putin's side every second for the past few days, months, years, assessing along with him every threat and worry? If not, ruling with certainty on everything which might or might not be to his best advantage is beyond your powers. On the other hand, if you've never been surprised in Thy life, I bow to the omniscience which is Thine.
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  26. I would add this: People often mention that Russia can and will withstand—willingly— just about any level of losses in order to repel an invasion—an invasion, for example, like the German one of 1941. That may very well be true. But the Ukraine War has nothing to do with an invasion of Russia. What I'm getting at is that the Russian citizenry may, far sooner than is commonly supposed, run out of patience with the losses of this offensive war, this war of choice.
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  27.  @MarcosElMalo2  It surprises me how many people think that American political and military leadership are perpetually unthinking blunderers and how few think that they are acute and realistic but simply have to conceal their real strategy. In this regard I put Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Ukraine all in the same basket. In each case I think they knew (or know) that attaining an absolute victory was/is not realistic in light of the enemy's commitment and resolve, the immutable facts of the terrain, the (un)willingness of the American public, the need to conserve American military and financial resources, and the willingness of the enemy's allies to back it with their own military and financial resources. Afghanistan may serve as a prime example. No one is ever going to conquer and pacify Afghanistan—perennially quite well armed and innately highly defensible owing to terrain—without a force of at least a few million, and at a great cost in lives. Knowing this, the US and the UN-mandated ISAF were under no illusions. They sent in small numbers of men and a lot of materiel with the aim of controlling Kabul, some other large towns, large areas of countryside, and that's all. That they were able to do it so well and for so long, without huge numbers of casualties, was in fact very impressive. They made their point about terra wrist training, they made it for 20 years, and they made it well. That point was that if the West is attacked, the nation sponsoring the attacks will receive some very unpleasant visitors who will stay for a very long time. And what was its effect? I say that the relative absence of Isla mist terra wrist attacks on the West for many years now strongly suggests that it created a strong deterrent. And the US left at a time of their own choosing. Mostly their own choosing, that is: it would appear that Russian troop massing near Ukraine in early 2021 was the cue that US military commitments were best trimmed to the minimum. Hence the Afghanistan pullout, which when seen in that light was well timed. (The disappointing aspect was the relative lack of passion among Afghanis for retaining democratic government. This largely had to do with an understandable exhaustion and a longing for peace after so many decades of warfare since the 1970s. It was this that led the Western forces to simply hope that all the kit they'd left the national army with would be wielded with conviction. Few, however, were greatly shocked when the Afghans quickly surrendered. But the notion that US and their partners left defeated with their tails between their legs is nothing more than anti-Western PR.) It must be borne in mind that the US cannot publicly admit its real goals in every conflict. It cannot begin by telling the American people that it cannot win outright and must settle for attriting enemies over a period of many years. They wouldn't accept it. Yet the outcomes of such attrition are successful. Vietnam succeeded in keeping China from attempts to spread Communism in the Indo-Pacific during all these years since. The hope of the US and NATO now is that Russia will learn a lesson similar to those learned by China (in Vietnam), North Korea and the Taliban, namely that over the long term they cannot win. Thanks for reading my even longer spiel.😄
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  28. Regarding the Russian army's "human meat wave attacks," perhaps the Russian-born and -raised author Ayn Rand may shed some light on the Russian public's calm acceptance of them and of the war itself: "The ideological root of statism (or collectivism) is the tribal premise of primordial savages who, unable to conceive of individual rights, believed that the tribe is a supreme, omnipotent ruler, that it owns the lives of its members and may sacrifice them whenever it pleases to whatever it deems to be its own 'good.' ”
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  29.  @FelixMeister  You're right about overuse and vulgar misunderstandings of words, especially for the purpose of exaggeration and rhetorical overdramatization. I've devised the term category inflation for these things.
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  30. Merkel solemnly told Europe seven years ago (!) that "We must take care of ourselves from now on" or words to that effect. Germany then proceeded to do sweet FA. Since the Zeitenwende announcement on Feb. 27, 2022, procurement has gone at a snail's pace. The whole EU likewise, except Poland and a few countries with 5m or so people.
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  31. Anders, in my view you do everything right. On top of everything else, your English is faultless. For this, as someone who can't speak a word of Danish😂, allow me to express my humble admiration.
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  32.  @NDJ1978  "The Fed has printed 80% of all US dollars in existence since Jan 2020. There was $4.02 trillion dollars in circulation at the beginning of 2020. The number reached $20.08 trillion by Oct 2021. This amounted to an astronomical 30 trillions debt." You must edit this with a basic fact in mind: USD-denominated debt is not itself US dollars. I have learned from economists and authoritative reference sources that USD-denominated bonds such as Treasurys are not themselves US dollars, any more than a painting by Rembrandt with a price tag in USD is itself US dollars. I'm not attacking you, I'm helping you. I spotted other basic errors but I don't have the time or the inclination to go into any more of them. Your anti-Americanism is sadly one-sided and it's pretty clear that your opening position is one of total conviction. Horse, then cart!
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  33. Europe has a straightforward Hobson's choice before it, luckily one which is affordable: Start paying cash for all the American weaponry Ukraine needs. (Although it's not possible to be certain, I see no reason why Trump would institute an arms embargo on Ukraine.) Over 500m people can come up with $50-100bn a year. Situation saved.
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  34. Blaming his blunders on everyone else, Putin is reminding me of the angrily indignant Inspector Clouseau. E.g., in a hotel room, he clumsily almost injures himself: "Zis hotel is deteriorating rapidly!"
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  35. Soon perhaps, air battles between squadrons numbering in the hundreds or thousands. It might await AI which can seamlessly orchestrate such squadrons. Or EW might prevent all that. But then ingenuity might break the impasse: Could there be fiberless fiber optics — high-bandwidth data transmission between drones by light signalling?
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  36. I think Ukraine's agricultural exports might amount to the low- to mid-$20 billions. The value of what cannot go out any way except via the Black Sea might be most of that. So it's a lot of money, but still actually way down the list of giant expenses and financial losses. I wouldn't call it lunch money, but it might or might not make their top dozen most pressing issues. I wonder if seed oils have been part of the agreement at any point. The number of calories in $6.3bn worth of sunflower and other oils must be just staggering. (The seed oils category is actually larger than wheat and corn, and they are the number one exporter worldwide.)
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  37. Especially if. GDP will plummet, to recover who-knows-when.
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  38. The more I learn about war as these months go by, the more I realize how a close an analogue for war is the game of chess. E.g., in neither is any single asset a silver bullet. The aim is to have as many pieces as possible and to deploy them as a unified force such that each additional piece makes the others stronger. F-16s are thus like suddenly having another knight, bishop or rook, instantly strengthening protection of the king while boosting the powers of the queen and all the others down to the pawns. They're a big help.
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  39. Yes, there's a frenemies aspect between the Authoritarian Axis countries, but they nonetheless pose a great threat when they really do work in concert. Which they do. And not only specific aims but also blanket anti-Westernism binds their respective peoples together. Populations to whom it's peddled unite behind their regimes. On Chinese indifference to Ukraine, I cannot agree. It must be remembered that China cannot feed its people without vast amounts of imported grain, a great deal of which comes from countries with whom relations are marked by considerable unease, e.g. the US, Canada. That is why a guarantee of tens of millions of tons of grain a year from Ukraine would be of immense interest to Xi. It would solve a lot of his problems if he could invade Taiwan and still be able to put chicken and pork on Chinese tables. (The imported grain is mostly fed to animals.) The US Navy, obviously, couldn't block overland exports of grain to China by rail.
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  40. It must be admitted that we are all in Plato's cave at the moment, scrutinizing shadows on the wall. Secrets, deceptions and motivations unknown to us should be presumed, and presumed to be of major importance.
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  41. French generals in early 1940: "In three weeks England will have her neck wrung like a chicken." Are you by any chance a French general?
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  42.  @OleDiaBole  Ah, a voice from the civilized portion of the world.😂
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  43.  @OleDiaBole  Ok, Slobodan, Radovan, or whatever your name is. Thanks for schooling me.😄
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  44. That middle sentence trails off into incoherence. Mr. Nielsen, for his part, is never incoherent.
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  45. 👍 Capt. Nielsen, you should be next in line for a position on Denmark's National Security Council.
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  46.  @pauly230678  <---"The likes of Norway, Sweden and UK would be in full noise regardless of what the rest of NATO do." Yes, I agree. And they already have a mechanism for that: the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), a UK-led force which consists of the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden), the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), and the Netherlands.
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  47. @a.brekkan4965 ⬅Wind vane
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  48. This is the high-level, far-into-the-future analysis that's so rare in commentary on the war. Much needed. It's a bit eerie how closely it all aligns with my own views, except that I think NATO's strategy, while not entirely foolproof, is decisively more astute than Putin's. I foresee it continuing to strengthen NATO, while his is hollowing out Russia.
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  49. In a classic Simpsons moment, the elderly Jasper got his beard caught in a countertop manual pencil sharpener. All he could think of to try freeing it was to turn the crank a little more. Over and over he did the same thing, the sharpener pulling in more beard each time. Putin's war is Jasper's beard. NATO is the sharpener. Putin is Jasper.
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  50. It's ok not to wave your hands around 100% of the time, Mr. Nielsen.
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