Comments by "dixon pinfold" (@dixonpinfold2582) on "DW News"
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And you'd think a pandemic would pour cold water on house prices, but no, they've actually picked up steam. Thanks, Fed! Thanks, other central banks!
Together they have swelled the money supply to an amazing extent and fuelled outlandish asset price inflation. As time proceeds they shall have no choice but to open the fire hydrant some more, partly to avoid economic collapse, partly to provoke the inflation which alone, with its consequent devaluation of the currency, can do something about debts, public and private, of such enormousness. And enormity.
At that point, as now, they are simply postponing a massive drop in wealth and the ordinary standard of living. By doing so they will actually make these things worse than if it happened quickly.
Some well-known investors are predicting a lot of wealth destruction in all or nearly all asset classes, btw. Worldwide, and within one to three years. It could begin in the second half of this year.
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@kimwit1307 I regard GDPs of countries with severely undervalued currencies as being more suitably looked at by PPP. Nominal and PPP both have their aspects of reality and unreality, and are both important, but when an economy grows in domestic terms while shrinking in market exchange rate terms, you know something's not right with the USD-terms picture.
Pre-war, Russia's GDP at PPP was just 10% smaller than Germany's, i.e., pretty close to $5trn. All that talk one hears about its economy being "the size of Italy or Canada" stems from a serious lack of understanding and knowledge, and in many cases bias and strong emotions.
(Don't get me wrong, Germany's economy was a fundamentally stronger, more advanced and richer one, hands down. But GDP is a measure of size, not quality.)
Thanks for your reply.
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@brucewayne3892 The EU countries are crazy and twisted, but far less crazy and twisted than Putin. (No big accomplishment there!)
They are far saner, far richer, far more well-armed, far more numerous and far more productive than Russia. They also have the US backing them up, plus a good number of other large or strategically important high-GDP countries (UK, Turkey, Israel, Canada, Australia, Japan, Korea—and no doubt India and many others if it ever came down to it). Game, set, match.
Five or six billion people are going to vigorously oppose any attempt by China and Russia to take over the world. They all know the Pax Americana is good for them, because it is, and they're not fools.
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@greganderson7216 I'm not sure Ukraine is even the main consideration in Blinken or Biden's mind. I suspect they think it's high time Poland had some decent stuff anyway.
I found your reply reasonable but I'm very far from ready to regard Putin as desperate. I suspect rather that he is attempting to draw NATO into a trap. His Ukraine tactics have been half-hearted considering the troops and weaponry at his disposal, and this argues that they are for the most part bait.
Keep in mind the numerous long meetings and phone calls he has had with Xi in the past year or two, and also that the Indo-Pacific is of greater strategic importance to the world even than Eastern Europe. Far greater.
It's the big prize, and an overextended and exhausted NATO could put many significant countries, some of them highly important, within China's grasp, to be either conquered outright or put under domination: Taiwan (home to 60% of the world's semiconductor production), Japan, Australia, South Korea, Singapore, the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia.
And if even two of those go, I don't see how Guam would be likely to last.
The countries and peoples of the West have to come together immediately, lest we find ourselves in a fight for our survival. It's absolutely not out of the question. (So far Germany is setting the best example, despite keeping its head in the sand until the last possible moment.)
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@francoislechanceux5818 Thanks for your reply. I agree with all that. I would add that this war is not just about Putin. Mark my words, this is just the first fruit of the China-Russia alliance. Much larger, much bloodier, much more disastrous proxy wars will come out of it. Direct wars between major countries are also probable within a generation or two, possibly within a few years, even conceivably this year.
The first half of the 20th century is storming back. It can't be stopped entirely, it can only be slowed down, reduced in scale. A significant number of countries are going to attack and attempt to impoverish, subjugate and destroy the West; it will have to respond with massive militarization.
Enjoy the rest of the Pax Americana while you can. Get your travelling done if you can. A world which in many areas, including the West, are relaxed, open, free and prosperous is likely slipping away. The one we grew up in will be seen as an aberration, and I expect most children will be taught that it was wicked and hellish.
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@francoislechanceux5818 Nominal GDP means something, to be sure, but it means a lot less when a currency is quite over- or undervalued.
All you need to know is this: some years a country's currency goes up against the US dollar, sometimes it falls. But, up or down, the change may be totally irrelevant to what happened to output. From 2012 to 2016 my own country's currency fell from $1.05 to under 70 cents US. Its nominal GDP in USD terms fell sharply. So it had become massively impoverished, right? No, not at all. It had enjoyed steady economic growth the whole time, with rising incomes, rising production volumes, and rising per capita net worth.
Both GDP measures describe reality accurately up to a point; neither does it perfectly. I trust I've at least raised serious doubts in your mind about your position.
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This is a strangely unaddressed question. To me the answer is that they foresaw it quite well but were not afraid of unpopularity, nor afraid if the West made moves to arm Ukraine or to impoverish Russia. They have plans for dealing with all that, which involve the withstanding of self-inflicted pain for the sake of eventual victory—victory not necessarily in Ukraine, but in the world. I allude here to the China-Russia alliance, which everyone is avoiding talking about.
In my view it explains everything that is happening, everything that is making people scratch their heads in confusion. Russia and China, I fear, have agreed to each start a war in their respective regions and to draw the West into them. They intend also to win them, and thereby to start winning the world whether sooner or later. China at this point would be waiting for a gusher of NATO resources to be definitely committed to eastern Europe before making its move. It expects to soon start receiving reliable shipments of Ukrainian wheat and other grains, a supply which will obviate the need for the Western imports on which it currently relies for putting pork and chicken on Chinese tables. The matter is not simple, but food insecurity is a major factor holding China back from invading Taiwan. An attack would definitely mean the end of Western grain and soybeans except possibly from Brazil.
The overall aim would be to strain the West to the breaking point, probably by forcing it to spend immensely on arming itself, as well as by spawning proxy wars in numerous countries. (Recall that outspending the USSR in an arms race is commonly regarded as the way the West indirectly brought about its collapse.) Their long-term aim is less to defeat the West's armed forces head-on than to spread them thinly, and above all to use any means to weaken the West financially, socially and diplomatically, at every step of the way making it thus easier to draw other countries into a China-Russia-led sphere, to be expanded as quickly as possible.
Russia as the very junior partner in the alliance with China would finally be free to move back into eastern Europe and indulge in irredentism and revanchism. The rest of Europe, according to this vision, would be so afraid of Russia that it could be dominated permanently. If all or parts of Western Europe decided to make war on Russia (with or without the US) they would have the whole China-Russia-sphere to deal with. (It probably has just Serbia, Iran, Syria and North Korea as auxiliary members at present. Pakistan perhaps. Many others are watching and saying little, not wanting to commit themselves either way before getting a better idea of how things will play out.)
Instead of looking at it this way, people are calling Putin irrational. No, he's not irrational at all. He's got China solidly backing him up. You or others may think his plans are falling apart, but I don't know. Perhaps, or perhaps they're going almost exactly to plan. A quick victory over Ukraine would have afforded little opportunity for the West to rack up costs by the tens or hundreds of billions as it has done already (in military expenses, but also including its higher bill for energy and significantly higher inflation, all of which undermine the dollar).
Little old me seems to be the only one talking about this, which is mad. I think it's because people find the thought so disturbing that it calms them to see it as far-fetched.
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