Comments by "Bob" (@bobs_toys) on "Is China Heading Towards Stagnation Like Japan? @visualeconomiken" video.

You're right. Japan had it easy when compared with what's hitting the PRC now.
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The decline in birthrates that took Japan 32 years took the PRC three. Look at the Crude births per thousand. In the last decade alone, the number of peele deciding to become parents has dropped by between two thirds and three quarters. As of last year, to maintain the current 2:1 worker to dependent ratio (down from 3:1 in 2011) the PRC needs 30 million working immigrants.
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 @TM-sj7nl we've been hearing about this grand new transition to a consumption led economy every few years since about 2008. Each time presented as if it's something new. It's not happening.
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Freedom_from_imp I'm sorry you can't read a third of a page of well spaced text. Illiteracy is a real problem.
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@willj-j9y future tech will save us! But seriously. This is stuff that's needed now. Not in two decades. Also, when automation is at the "do what I mean" state that stops manpower being an issue, what's the point in the PRC? Before it's at that point, you're basically trying to implement something that needs a large number of extremely educated and experienced people to design, install, maintain and improve bespoke systems. We're not cheap and we follow the money. The money isn't in the PRC.
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@willj-j9y that doesn't begin to contradict what I said. And as for the Asian century goes. Just... No. The region is turning into one giant nursing home. While everyone who can get out does get out. Right down to Xi's daughter.
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@anubizz3 since 2014, the number of people deciding to become parents has dropped by between two thirds and three quarters. According to official numbers. That's an impressive decline for just short of a decade.
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@anubizz3 the only countries that have the PRC's decline are Japan and South Korea. Soon it'll be South Korea only. These places are screwed. And they're far wealthier than the PRC, with the ability to attract sufficient numbers of immigrants if they (finally) choose to. The PRC just can't. It's not an option.
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@anubizz3 only south Korea and Japan have worse birthrates. By now.... It's probably just South Korea. And they can attract sufficient numbers of immigrants if they choose to. They're also far wealthier. To maintain the current worker to dependent ratio, the PRC needs 30 million immigrants for just last year. It's not happening.
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@xipingcao so basically, you don't care about getting to a high level of development nearly as much as you care about having some metric by which you can favourably compare yourself with fully developed countries. Which with your ageing population and slowing growth means you grew old before you grew rich. You will never grow rich.
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@olivero.1877 he says that being able to compare yourself to a wealthy country by at least one metric is good enough. Actual high standards aren't needed.
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 @lovefreebee yes it does. There's plenty of them. Just outside of Shanghai.
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A demographic collapse is a slow moving train wreck, but still a train wreck. Unless you're very old, you'll be experiencing the full impact. Take last year as an example. The number of workers declined by 10.75 million while the net number of dependents increased by about 10 million. This was the higher number of retirement age people (16.93 million) minus a lower number of under 18's (a decline of about 7 million) You currently have a 2:1 worker to dependent ratio. Down from 3:1 in 2011. Which means you need to find 30 million new workers to keep the ratios at their current rate. For last year alone. The coming years are only getting worse. This is according to the official data. God knows what the reality is. Since 2014, the number of people deciding to become parents has dropped by between two thirds and three quarters. Again, according to official numbers. What else should the beginning of a societal collapse look like to you? You've lost the race to get rich before you get old.
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The PRC wishes it was merely going down Japan's path. Take the collapse in birthrates. A decline that took Japan three decades took the PRC three years.
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