Comments by "Bob" (@bobs_toys) on "BEC Finance" channel.

In the last year of the one child policy, there were a scratch under 19 million births. Less than a decade later, there's 9 million. Of those nine million, over half are second or third children. So in less than a decade, the number of people deciding to become parents has dropped by between two thirds and three quarters. If that isn't collapse, what is?
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@shyviking looking at this again, it's really worth pointing out a few things. Particularly for Japan and south Korea. 1. They're both at a much higher level of development. Both now and when their declines started. 2. They both have populations small enough to make using immigration to offset their decline is an option (assuming they choose to). For the PRC, this isn't even an option. 3. The speed of decline in birthrates wasn't nearly as rapid. (what took Japan 32 years took the PRC three years. It took south Korea from 2001 to 2018 to do the decline the PRC did from 2015 to 2023) And 4 is probably the biggest one. Despite all these advantages they have over the PRC, these countries are still countries that are in a dire situation when it comes to demographics. It's like comparing your crime rate to Haiti and saying things aren't so bad. The mere fact you're choosing to make the comparison is bad enough. That you're in a worse situation in every way is catastrophic. Anyway, will it cause the/the PRC to morph into North Korea tomorrow? No. But for the PRC in particular, it's bad enough that everyone younger than forty or fifty has a real problem. And with the lack of welfare, everyone who's decided against having children has given up on a dignified retirement in order to afford their youth.
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@shyviking putting this into shorter term numbers. At the moment, you have a 2:1 worker to dependent ratio. This is down from 3:1 So each worker needs to support half a person that's not itself. Whether it's workers paying for their own families directly or paying for welfare funded social support doesn't really matter. It's still that much productivity going into people who aren't also contributing. Last year alone, there was a roughly 30 million worker shortfall from those required to maintain the 2:1 ratio. (decline of 10.75 million workers who need to be replaced, plus a net increase of roughly 10 million dependents, each of whom needs two workers to keep the ratios up) It would be over 45 million needed, but fortunately the under 18 population declined by about 7 million. So.... I guess you got lucky? Each year over the next decade is looking at least as bad.
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In 2014, about 30 percent of newborns were second or third children. The crude birth rate was 13.83 per thousand (we can't exactly use births per woman, now, can we?) Last year, a bit over 50 percent of newborns were second or third children and there were 6.39 births per thousand (official data) So in less than a decade we've had the number of births go to less than half of what it was and the number of deciding they can become parents drop by two thirds. In less than a decade. And the decline continues. Last year alone, in order to maintain the 2:1 worker to dependent ratio (down from 3:1 in 2011) the PRC needed an additional 30 million workers. And the next decade is looking much worse. This is coupled with a median income of about 4k USD. PPP multipler is about 2x. So the median Chinese person has a spending power of about 2/3 the US poverty line. And yes. know things are cheaper. That's why used the PPP modifier. To take that into account. That's why 5 percent simply isn't good enough. They lost the race to grow rich before they grew old. If you invested 1k into the CSI 300 back in mid 2009, you'd have about 1.1 k now. If you did the same with the S&P500, you'd have about 6k. If you made this investment five years ago, you'd have 1050 today. Vs 1,930. A year ago, it would have been 1090. That's after this sugar hit. Vs about 1300. And things continue to slide. And slide. And slide.
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@chillxxx241 you'd think people shilling for a govt that claims to think in centuries would understand just how little time a decade or so is.
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@shyviking at that speed and low level of development?
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In 2014, about 30 percent of newborns were second or third children. The crude birth rate was 13.83 per thousand (we can't exactly use births per woman, now, can we?) Last year, a bit over 50 percent of newborns were second or third children and there were 6.39 births per thousand (official data) So in less than a decade we've had the number of births go to less than half of what it was and the number of deciding they can become parents drop by two thirds. In less than a decade. And the decline continues. Last year alone, in order to maintain the 2:1 worker to dependent ratio (down from 3:1 in 2011) the PRC needed an additional 30 million workers. And the next decade is looking much worse. This is coupled with a median income of about 4k USD. PPP multipler is about 2x. So the median Chinese person has a spending power of about 2/3 the US poverty line. And yes. know things are cheaper. That's why used the PPP modifier. To take that into account. That's why 5 percent simply isn't good enough. They lost the race to grow rich before they grew old. If you invested 1k into the CSI 300 back in mid 2009, you'd have about 1.1 k now. If you did the same with the S&P500, you'd have about 6k. If you made this investment five years ago, you'd have 1050 today. Vs 1,930. A year ago, it would have been 1090. That's after this sugar hit. Vs about 1300. And things continue to slide. And slide. And slide.
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