Comments by "Bob" (@bobs_toys) on "PolyMatter" channel.

  1. That trillion in US bonds will evaporate quickly. They'll become net importers.
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  2. That Taiwan remains a free and independent nation says that the CCP doesn't think the situation is as rosey as you do.
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  3. Africa isn't exactly home to the powerful, stable, advanced economies that fulfill what the PRC needs.
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  4. I can't find that agreement. Can you link it? It seems strange to even bother having a talk that doesn't touch what either side is uncomfortable with (and with the CCP, that's pretty much everything) particularly in the context of what's been happening over the last couple of years.
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  5. Truer in developed nations than developing ones. China's problem is it grew old before it grew rich.
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  6. What do you think soft power is?
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  7. They've had seventy years to do this. Still nothing. And that was BEFORE Hong Kong showed that their promises were lies.
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  8. ​ @Jodoe243 this whole dream is killed by that bit about Hong Kong showing that the CCP's promises are lies. So, no. There's no peaceful way of doing it. Because there's nothing that the CCP can offer that's worth the paper it's written on.
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  9. Which is what Tsai said in 2020. Which was... Ignored. In a stunning display of ineffectuality by the CCP.
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  10. Which is a major difference. The western world can attract plenty migrants (and has a well established history of it) to ease us through the transition. The PRC can't.
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  11. In the PRC? I think they're expecting the social security fund to run out in the next ten years or so.
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  12. And China's pension system is estimated to last until 2035 Kind of like how Hong Kong was to remain autonomous until 2047
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  13.  @shawnli9284  you can't eat money. You can't warm your home with money. Money is only useful when there's sufficient stuff for it to buy.
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  14. It's Russia making Slavics fight with Slavics. And Chinese fighting Chinese is a tradition the pre dates the USA by thousands of years. How many living people today have ever known a united China? Even if Taiwan is taken you've still got the land stolen by your unlimited partners to the north.
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  15.  @gamerbot1146  the CCP doesn't have those long term plans. It's very short sighted aimed at keeping the party's leadership in power and profiting, rather than what's good for the PRC.
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  16. When the CCP does that, they can say goodbye to anything moving across the ocean towards them. Europe won't help them. India won't help them. Russia can't help them. There's an American dominated ocean between them and south America. There's two American dominated oceans and a continent between them and Africa. Or in the other direction, there's an ocean dominated by every country they've stolen from when they took the south China Sea, plus India. A bunch of countries that know how screwed they are if the CCP is dominant
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  17. And even if the PRC did start accepting them, from where do they get sufficient numbers of the sort of immigrants they need and how do they attract them?
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  18. From the complete lack of reaction to the two child policy, that seems to be something we can safely doubt.
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  19. Western countries are able to attract, integrate and make use of sufficiently large numbers of immigrants. The PRC can't. When you're saying context is needed, you shouldn't forget to add it into your own post.
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  20.  @spunkymonkey5102  read my post and you'll see what he's talking about.
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  21. India would also get massive amounts of foreign aid. It's the PRC that's friendless.
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  22. Which does make the claims that the world is against the PRC because of media bias laughable. All anyone needs to do to turn against the PRC is look at the CCP's and its supporter's words and actions. Even the wumao you see here do a wonderful job of showing the CCP to be an organisation run by thugs and barbarians.
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  23. It'll take decades for the population to decline by enough. People are hitting retirement, not the grave
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  24. The tendency of people who said they didn't like him to volunteer?
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  25.  @menassies3224  Norway and NZ are fairly interchangeable.
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  26. I'm sure such wide ranging, extreme changes will have no negative impacts. Or here's a counteroffer: Do nothing, because the people born this year won't even begin to be useful until the current leadership dies or has at least retired. Why would they incur the cost of doing something that might fix the problem when their chances of benefiting from it are basically zero?
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  27.  @coingeckolistings1037  why the switch away from China?
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  28. It's accepted that it's a thing the CCP believes. In the same way as I'm an atheist that accepts people believe in various gods.
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  29. You can see its people preparing by giving up on having children.
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  30. Can you eat money? Can you drive in money? Can money take care of you? Money only has value in the stuff that's made and the services it delivers. When that declines, the money declines. Also, the PRC really doesn't have that much money in the bank. It seems to, until you remember there's a lot of people.
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  31. The economy of a developed nation depends on science and technology. Except for a few high profile areas that are home to a minority of citizens, the PRC isn't developed.
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  32. The problem was it was exercised for multiple generations. It went on long enough to cause lasting cultural change. There absolutely were benefits from the one child policy, but they weren't enough and they ensured that China has lost the race to become rich before they became old. Also, the Chinese birthrate was already decreasing prior to this. It took what looks like it would have been a fairly steep decline to a catastrophic dive.
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  33.  @UrMom-jb7vl  yep. They turned a decline into an irreversible plummet.
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  34. The govt has figured it's better for its long term survival to blow away its relations with the outside world in exchange for making it appear tough to a domestic audience. Now imagine how scared they need to be of their own people to justify blowing up its relations with the source of its wealth this comprehensively.
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  35. It will. More likely in countries that don't have a low GDP per capita though.
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  36. Depends on the background. I remember going to Germany after I'd studied Chinese and basically thinking dear god this is so easy. It's got a nice simple syntax, but the tones are the devil and basically needing to learn it twice to both speak and read it doesn't help. The reading was the part I enjoyed most.
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  37.  @bonk2910  probably not. The PRC is one of those countries that seems great at first, but becomes worse the more you're exposed to it and learn about it.
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  38. Where do you find sufficient people who are both the kind of people China needs and can use, and who would see China as the best country that would accept them?
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  39. The shortfall in births per year between 2016 (when it was already uncomfortably low) and 2020 is about six million. A few hundred thousand a year isn't going to cut it. Especially when you consider that these are going to be the people who couldn't get jobs in better countries that had a history of immigration, such as the USA or Europe.
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  40.  @amk4956  reread my last paragraph. It's not just numbers, it's quality. The people they need are the people who can go elsewhere. China has plenty of poor people. There's no shortage. What they lack is people with useful skills.
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  41.  @amk4956  you think the PRC has plenty of money? And can afford the time it takes to make someone useful? And can stop those people going to better countries once they become useful?
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  42.  @amk4956  China has problems with the resources for education for its own population (those PISA results are confined to a few select cities for a reason) to say nothing of the additional burden of those who don't speak Mandarin (they're really, really not used to dealing with Mandarin as a second language. To say nothing of that it's a painfully difficult language to learn) The university system is also sub par. There would be massive unrest at foreigners getting these privileges while their own weren't. Plus.... They don't have the time
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  43.  @amk4956  the PLA is the communist party's army. It's there to defend the communist party against threats to it. These threats include the Chinese people. What happens to the CCP when the organisation that's there to defend it gets funding cuts? (And what happens to the person who proposes these funding cuts when the generals decide they'd support someone who is in favour of more funding?) As far as investing overseas goes and using the returns from that, there are two problems. The first is strengthens other countries if they do that (plus, the CCP doesn't invest for financial returns so much as control and influence). The second is they really don't have much money. What they have is a drop in the bucket of what they need. Three trillion USD sounds like a lot until you realise how big a liability that massive population is. Any time you propose a simple solution that'll solve their problems, you need to ask yourself why they haven't already done it. This isn't some sudden unpredictable disaster (almost none of the PRC's problems are) but something they've known will happen for literal decades.
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  44.  @amk4956  two major issues here: 1. They don't have a long period of time. There's a bunch of ticking Timebombs starting to go off. 2. The total numbers of people are irrelevant. It's the ratios that matter. Their ratio of dependents to workers is about to go through the roof.
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  45. 2015 - 2020 average is about 6 weeks less than 2010 - 2015 but otherwise it's the highest it's ever been.
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  46. Have you met a baby? They're only bright when you compare them with other babies.
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  47. How do you think the Chinese people would react if their exports crumbled and their quality of living went with it? Keeping in mind that an unpopular US government gets voted out. An unpopular PRC government will be murdered (The next person I come across who'll be able to describe a peaceful means of changing who's in charge will be the first) But yeah, overall, the Western side has been playing far too nice for far too long. This idea that the PRC is run by civilised people is incredibly damaging and needs to be abandoned.
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  48. What part of the video is this question meant to address or contradict?
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  49. One way or another
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  50. If you actually put a number on the number of immigrants per year, you'll see how ridiculous this statement is vs the scale of the problem.
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