Comments by "Bob" (@bobs_toys) on "Demographics Part 5: The Chinese Collapse" video.

  1. The US birthrate is still twice the PRC's. 14.7 per thousand in 2000 to 12.023 in 2023 The PRC was 14.03 (with one child policy) in 2000 and is 6.39 (with more than half of costed children being second or third children) in 2023.
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  2.  @jimluebke3869  that's a slight decline over two decades. 19 percent. Vs 55 percent. In this context, that's not a plummet. And last year, officially, the PRC lost 10 million workers.
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  3. You don't need to just clone, you need to grow and educate them.
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  4. The people in China, who are currently giving up on having children at an unprecedented rate, don't seem to be convinced of this success.
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  5. He's using data from the Chinese national bureau of statistics. It isn't him that's biased against the PRC, it's reality.
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  6. Not much in a country with such a low gdp per capita. The skilled workers this needs are extremely expensive and can live wherever we like.
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  7. How's being sentenced to an impoverished old age because the people who would have cared for you don't exist? How's the quality of life there?
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  8.  @KJSvitko  is this another case where we pretend that the PRC and X western country are culturally the same?
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  9. In 2000 it was 28.9 years for the PRC, 35.3 years for the USA. In 2020 it was 37.4 years for the PRC, 38.6 for the USA. So in 20 years, it increased by 8.5 years for the PRC and 3.3 years for the USA. And it'll be getting worse for the PRC.
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  10. ​ @joem0088 for now. With the birthrate declining at a rate that makes what happened to Japan seem like the softest of declines, how long do you think that'll last? Keeping in mind Japan was much wealthier when it started its decline. Germany is also much wealthier. And both of these countries can (if they choose) attract enough immigrants to offset the issue. For the PRC, that's simply not an option.
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  11. So can the United States, for that matter.
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  12. ​ @joem0088  ah. You're another of those who thinks these are magic. You're also obviously casting around for way in which to make it seem like things aren't so bad (what about America? What about Germany /Japan? What about future tech?) They'll come. Eventually. To the places that can afford to pay for the skilled workers first (this is a global market) and to poor places like the vast majority of the PRC last. This is a global market. Those of us who have those skills can live wherever we like. And those who simply think LLMs and AI are simply magic wands that don't need people who know the details of how to make use of them are headed for disaster. For me, it's a huge benefit. I do a lot of development. However, I understand it and its limitations. It's just a tool. Basically another abstraction of a programming language. For people who blindly trust it or don't have the ability to understand what it's doing, it produces work that can easily end in disaster. But all this is probably why you focused on the immigration bit and skipped over the wealth bit. Now, what they WILL do is absolutely gut your simple jobs. Where people who've just graduated should be getting the real learning done. Meaning that for those millions of unemployed graduates, things aren't going to improve and you're got going to get the skilled workforce that could have made these resources dance.
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  13.  @joem0088  to be clear on where skilled labour goes. I follow the money. I do what's best for my family. Hong Kong was (past tense. I left because of the national security law) enough to attract me. The mainland doesn't come close. And if you think your best and brightest are any different to me, you're very much mistaken.
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  14. You need well over ten million a year to make up the shortfall. Good luck with that. To give an example of how much luck you need. There's 20 million English speakers. A global language that's been in Africa for over a century. Also one that's relatively easy to learn. Half of those would take up this year's official fall in the working age population. Half for next. Mandarin isn't in the top 50 languages. The cut-off appears to be a million.
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  15. The big drop isn't here yet.
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  16. I mean, you're half right. It could go quite badly. But the PRC is the country for pushing bad ideas until they're unmitigated disasters, so watch this space.
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