Comments by "Bob" (@bobs_toys) on "The Chinese Slide Into Deflation (The Final Straw?) || Peter Zeihan" video.

  1. So what do you think happens to a country when its future workers simply weren't born (and its former workers will continue to consume resources for decades)?
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  2. Because it's not illegal for him to analyse it and talk about it.
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  3. Right before autumn. In a place that normally goes to minus 10.
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  4. It's fun to watch how overwhelming the majority is of posts criticising this that show no signs of actually watching it.
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  5.  @fr4nky4fingers  putting the wealth difference into perspective (and getting around this will cost) The German gdp per capita has 51k usd. The PRC is a quarter of that at 12.5k. If you prefer to use PPP (which is meaningless for things that require international trade. Which this will) Germany is at 63k vs the PRC's 21k. Still a huge gap. For ageing, Germany had a median age of 42 years in 2000. Now it's 44.6 years. Or a 2.4 year increase. Or a 6 percent increase. It's had plenty of opportunity to get used to the current situation. Contrast this with the PRC. The PRC was at 28.9 years in 2000. Now it's 37.4 years. An 8.5 year difference in absolute terms or a 29 percent increase in relative terms. The final part of this is what someone who's elderly can actually do. The current retiring generation in the PRC was educated during the cultural revolution and its aftermath. The German populace wasn't.
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  6. It's strange. I see so many people saying he's wrong (on all his videos I see) But it's very rare to see people saying what he's wrong about.
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  7. Everyone who thought China would be fine in the 1920's died before they could see that day. All I've seen is it being less screwed than it was under Mao. That's a long way from fine. But hey, eventually some generation will see this.
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  8.  @zacksmith5963  remember how I asked you to name three countries that had their birthrates drop by over 40 percent in five years and when that happened? That you couldn't answer that isn't a good thing for the PRC.
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  9. We can all be sure that a country with massive corruption and a tendency to cut corners has all the grain they say they do 😉
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  10. Eight years. It was abolished in 2015. In that year there were 15 million births. 2016 and 2017 had small increases. Going to to a little under 18 million (remember this is decades of pent up demand) And last year it was 9.56 million.
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  11. And that's why everyone is giving up on having kids at an unprecedented rate (their birthrate isnow below south Korea's) Because things are going well.
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  12. Not remotely at this rate. Since 1990, the birthrate in the USA has dropped by a third. In the PRC it's dropped by about 70 percent. According to official figures. In the last five years alone, it's dropped by 45 percent.
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  13.  @danm8747  so it's pretty impressively bad for the PRC that the generation that's doing this in the west is still having almost twice as many kids per person as the same generation in the PRC.
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  14.  @danm8747  you can try spinning it whatever way you like. The reality is that the things you're saying might happen in the future in the west are happening right now in the PRC at an unbelievable rate. And have been for the last five years.
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  15.  @danm8747  except we are massively far behind. Also, the western countries can attract immigrants to further soften the decline. The PRC can't.
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  16. Yes.
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  17. It doesn't have to be a more local source. Just ABC. Anything But China.
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  18.  @LabTech41  if you're only planning for the sort term, fine. Just don't expect to do better than those who prepared for the long term and made their way to the exits. They're the ones who'll be well established in the next countries while you're wondering where it all went wrong.
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  19.  @LabTech41  if you can't get an alternative source going, then you're probably going to prepare to go out of business. All you're asking is what do you do if your affordable supplier will stop being an affordable supplier? I should mention I manage large computer networks, not businesses. But it seems that if you can't adapt as in your scenario, you simply perish. I'm not really seeing a third option.
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  20. In the long run, they'll be dealing with the results of the demographic crash that's been accelerating since the one child policy was abolished.
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  21. It did years ago. At the start of 2020. Tsai pointed out they are independent. The response was deafening crickets.
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  22. What part of having your birthrate decline by 45 percent in five years doesn't sound like a sign of doom?
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  23. This one. Who are China's biggest allies? Russia isn't one. That's a (very limited) partnership without limits.
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  24. So where's this list I asked for? I see a bunch of excuses for a lack of list.
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  25. For Russia, let me know when China actually outright joins the war instead of sneaking around with minor things.
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  26.  @matthewlampe8032  that's two replies you've made that don't include a list of China's allies. You haven't even explicitly listed Russia as one. It's a pretty easy question to a answer. What's the hold up?
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  27. Surely a sign things are going well!
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  28. A 15 percent reduction in birthrate in one year is quite common.
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  29. Long story short is 17.23 million births in 2017. 9.56 million births in 2022. That's a 45 percent reduction in five years.
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  30.  JackSmith-mk1ru  proof of what, exactly?
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  31. They're not an alliance. And that might have been true below before the CCP virus ravaged the world.
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  32. Depends.... If you're the person handling the money, almost certainly. If you're China, no one cares about you, you're there to make a handful of people rich while they get their wealth and families overseas.
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  33. You say this, yet I see person after person say he's wrong, then simply disappear when they're asked what, exactly, he's wrong about
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  34.  @CONTACTLIGHTTOMMY  anything in this video as an example? What you've given is a fairly incoherent ramble. It shouldn't be any difficulty at all to give a timestamp of something he's said (I've seen people actively lie when answering this) and why he's wrong.
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  35.  @CONTACTLIGHTTOMMY  so if he's consistent, it should be easy for you to point to something in this video.
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  36.  @CONTACTLIGHTTOMMY  I'm going to repeat my last statement.
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  37.  @CONTACTLIGHTTOMMY  personally, I think the funniest thing is how many people I've seen going on about how the videos he makes are wrong yet are still unable to show anything wrong in the video in question. You're not the first person. This isn't the first video. The closest thing I've had to an exception involved the person outright lying about what was said.
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  38.  @CONTACTLIGHTTOMMY  that's nice. At that rate, you should have no issues pointing out a plethora of mistakes in whatever video we're on. And yet, here we are. The closest you've come is he's not infallible.
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  39. ​ @matthewlampe8032 the evidence that you've actually watched this is still missing. What's he wrong about in this video, exactly and where does he say it?
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  40. Hong Kong could have been the testing ground that allowed policies to be tested that would help the PRC peacefully transition away from the CCP when it inevitably lost power. Unfortunately, the CCP leadership would rather see the PRC burn in civil war for generations than leave power a week earlier than it had to.
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  41. ​ @fr4nky4fingers as for historical parallels that led to collapse after something like this.... When has this ever happened? The closest that comes to mind is Japan, where they simply stopped. But the situation in the PRC is worse in every way than in Japan when they started this.
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  42. ​ @fr4nky4fingers Germany's birthrate is close to 50 percent higher than the PRC's. It's also far wealthier per person and can attract immigrants. Its birthrate also hasn't plummeted like the PRC's has. It's actually (slowly) going up but has stayed fairly stable for decades. At the moment it's about 30 percent lower than it was in 1950. The PRC is 30 percent lower than it was in 2019.
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  43.  @fr4nky4fingers  my data is from the Chinese national bureau of statistics. 9.56 million births out of 1.4 billion is a birthrate of 6.77 per thousand. In Germany, there were 795k births in 2021 kHz out of 83.2 million which is 9.55 9.55 is 50 percent higher than 6.77 Fertility rate is a longer term thing will plummet as the number of women who simply didn't have kids sky-rockets (as we've seen over the last five years) It's being buffered by the number of women who had children prior to five years ago.
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  44.  @gfys756  the important thing is you tried to make a response. Good for you!
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  45.  @gfys756  things that are in the future are called predictions. What's a fact is that at the current rate, I'll be long dead before a majority is reached. Let alone enough for your bollocks. And it's good that you keep trying 😊
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  46.  @fr4nky4fingers  it's a pity you disappeared. Your fertility rate remark ages poorly. China’s fertility rate dropped to an estimated record low of 1.09 in 2022, the lowest of any country with a population over 100 million, according to government data. Demographers from the China Population and Development Research Centre, a Chinese government research institution, released data indicating that last year’s fertility rate fell to 1.09 from 1.15 in 2021, below Japan’s rate for the same time period and only slightly higher than South Korea’s, which was estimated to be 0.8. Germany is 1.53
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  47. What's nonsense, specifically? I'm going to pretend there's a chance you've actually watched this when I ask this.
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  48. Imagine you decided that more university graduates was better. Or more importantly, looked better. Gave you more bragging rights. And that you didn't really care about anything beyond that. Then imagine that you had a culture in which people with a degree really, really, really looked down on blue collar work.
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  49. But is he wrong?
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  50. RCS. Although R is fairly pointless. So is S, really. So China has C.
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  51. The problem isn't China, the problem is the damage the CCP can do while trying to stay in power that little bit longer on the way down.
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  52. What does a collapse look like if not a nearly 50 percent drop in births (from an already low rate) in half a decade? That's according to official PRC statistics. Things went so bad so quickly people literally gave up on reproducing en masse.
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  53. ​ @knightsnight5929 well there's India. But I kind of suspect India and China aren't going to become close allies.
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  54. It depends on if it's a slow decline or if an event sparks things too quickly to use that ploy
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