Comments by "Bob" (@bobs_toys) on "Which BRIC's Member Will Survive? || Peter Zeihan" video.

  1. This is how the median age of a few countries has changed for comparison. Japan 2000 40.7 Korea 2000 30.7 China 2000 28.9 US 2000 35.3 Japan 2020 48 Korea 2020 42.8 China 2020 37.4 US 2020 38.6 Absolute ageing: Japan 7.3 years Korea 12.1 years China 8.5 years USA 3.1 years
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  2.  @emperor615  in twenty years, the median age went up by 7.3 years.
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  3. You mean when the pandemic happened? I'm having problems finding overall statistics, but migration from China to Australia was at record levels last year. Difficult to think of a reason why other destinations would be any different. 64k people. Or a bit under half our total immigrants.
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  4. Demographics are much easier to predict. Especially in a country with almost no immigration. For example, last year there were 9.02 million births. That means that in 2041, there will be at most 9.02 million 18 year olds. Last year, there were about 16 million 18 year olds. So in 2041 that's the number of 36 year olds. At most. Vs 25 million today.
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  5. It's funny when people who obviously don't have a clue of what's in the video beyond the title comment.
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  6. 60 percent. And "How many Americans have traveled internationally? Roughly three-quarters of Americans (76%) have visited at least one other country, including 26% who have been to five or more. About a quarter (23%) have not traveled internationally, though most in this group say they would if they had the opportunity."
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  7. They don't have 30 years, and these wonderful things will go to the countries that can pay for them first. The PRC doesn't have that much in the way of foreign reserves (not compared with the problem) and the size of their population means there's simply a massive amount to do.
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  8.  @ronagoodwell2709  that post doesn't contradict. Especially the bit about the size of the problem in the PRC, compared with the poverty. It's a big, expensive job that they're not capable of doing. As far as robots building other robots goes, that's been pretty common for a long time. When we do get to the full lights out factories, the question will be "why bother with China?" What can be built there can be built anywhere. And you didn't say wonderful. I did. I'm a senior Linux engineer whose job focuses on automation. I genuinely think these changes are wonderful. I also know how expensive and difficult they are to implement.
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  9. Demographics are pretty easy to forecast. Especially in a country with almost no immigration. EG. There were 9.02 million births last year. So in 2041, we know the at most, there'll be 9.02m 18 year olds.
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  10. Korea is much wealthier and has a population small enough that attracting enough immigrants is possible. If they decide to do it. But besides that. Korea is in a horrible position. On this, it's a country you never want to even compare yourself to.
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  11. Why does the importance of the ratio of workers to dependents (specifically the elderly) need to be explained?
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  12. Also, if I were to ask you to name three countries that had a similar decline in birthrates over a decade at a similar level of development, you'd need to evade the question. Or at best, throw out random countries, as if this data isn't easily available.
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  13.  @nicholaidajuan865  Japan and south Korea are both at a far higher level of development. Same with all of Europe. And they didn't have the sudden drop that the PRC did. Notice how I said less than a decade? The PRC has had the number of people choosing to become parents drop by two thirds. In less than a decade. It took Japan three decades to do the drop the PRC experienced between 2018 and 2021.
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  14.  @Bk6346  US number of 1 year olds. 3.59 million PRC number of 1 year olds. 9.02 million. Population adjusted, if the US were the PRC's size, it would have 14.9 million one year olds. That gap is going to keep increasing and affect every age group in the future. Plus, the US can attract immigrants. So many it can pick and choose. The PRC can't. Not in any meaningful way.
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  15.  @Bk6346  so is that snapshot going to stay as it is until the end of time? Or are the differences in births going to affect it as time goes on?
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  16.  @Bk6346  is that meant to be a yes or a no? Also, which European countries have fewer than 6.39 births per thousand?
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  17. When was the last time the federal govt forfeited?
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  18. In 2014, about 30 percent of newborns were second or third children. The crude birth rate was 13.83 per thousand (we can't exactly use births per woman, now, can we?) Last year, a bit over 50 percent of newborns were second or third children and there were 6.39 births per thousand (official data) So in less than a decade we've had the number of births go to less than half of what it was and the number of deciding they can become parents drop by two thirds. In less than a decade. And the decline continues. Last year alone, in order to maintain the 2:1 worker to dependent ratio (down from 3:1 in 2011) the PRC needed an additional 30 million workers. And the next decade is looking much worse.
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  19. That's four years. Not the biggest of achievements.
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  20. ​ @Pinstripe0451 so congratulations to those countries on probably living longer than a 78 year old man?
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  21.  @Pinstripe0451  I remember hearing that in 2016.
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