Comments by "Bob" (@bobs_toys) on "New Chinese Demographic Data = Population Collapse || Peter Zeihan" video.

  1. There's also this cultural thing where elderly Chinese really expect to be cared for. Western elderly tend to make a point of trying to be independent. It's like a control thing. My wife was amazed at our elderly when she first came to Australia. My grandfather was hero worshipped for being able to take care of himself in his 80's. Then she met another relative in new Zealand who looked after herself until she was over 100. By contrast, her mother has been playing up diabetes I'm not really convinced she has for decades. My mother who's a bit older just joined us on a three week trip through Vietnam.
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  2.  @mmwosu  I've tagged him several times in another instance of him asking for proof. He's a coward who runs away.
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  3.  @mmwosu  the pretending he's two different peopleis sad. Anyway: to spread the source he was given and ran away from far and wide: @jacksmith6015 9.5 million births last year. 17.8 million in 2017. From the global times, taken from the national bureau of statistics. "There has been a declining curve of yearly new births in China– 17.86 million, 17.23 million, 15.23 million and 14.65 million in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 respectively, according to data released by the NBS." "China's population fell by 850,000 in 2022 from the previous year, the National Statistics Bureau (NBS) said in February. The number of births was 9.56 million last year, or 6.77 per 1,000 people, data from the bureau showed."
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  4.  @ChrizzeeB  and those numbers as a whole are extremely optimistic when you look at them year by year.
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  5. If that's the big thing going on in the PRC that God has a problem with, his priorities are seriously screwed up.
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  6. The truth is worse
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  7.  @gbxgbxgbx  plus the supply line that's 4000km to 5500km Over rail. In some of the coldest places in the wield. And ratios of workers to dependents. If that's too bad (which it's going towards rapidly) the important thing isn't the size of the population
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  8. Not even close. You can check the demographic pyramid on each. The USA has remained relatively consistent on the number of people within each age range. The PRC has had large bubbles with a massive collapse in the youngest parts. The USA (which can attract immigrants) has a birthrate of 12 per thousand. Down from 15 per thousand in 1990. The PRC is on 6.77 per thousand. Down from roughly 13 per thousand in 2017.
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  9.  @SomeCanine  how long do you think that'll last with the PRC's collapse in birthrates? I'll put it this way. In 2000, the PRC had a median age of 28.9 years In 2020 it was 37.4 years. 8.5 years in absolute terms, or a 29 percent increase. In the US, in 2000 the median age was 35.3 years. In 2020 is was 38.8 years. Or a 3.5 year increase. Or a 10 percent increase. And things in the PRC have accelerated massively in the last five years. Plus (again) the USA can attract immigrants to dampen the effect. The PRC just can't.
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  10. What do you think happens when people stop having children en masse?
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  11.  @blitzen2009  please name three western countries that have had a greater than 40 percent decline in births per year over five years and dates in which this happened. The PRC has gone from 17.8 million births in 2017 to 9.56 million last year, according to official numbers.
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  12. So you don't understand ratios. That's fine. You're not alone. It's a prerequisite for saying this is fine. And please name three western countries that have had a greater than 40 percent decline in births per year in five years. Also list when this actually happened.
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  13. The problem is this is decreasing in exactly the way you don't want it to. Thanos did it completely randomly. This is biased towards getting rid of producers and future producers while keeping people who will never produce again.
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  14. Your name is suitable for someone with this inability to understand ratios.
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  15. The question is time-scale and the scale of the problem. Taking Japan as an example, it's a wealthy country (3x the PRC's gdp per capita) with a much smaller population and a birthrate that's declining at a much, much slower rate (what took Japan 32 years took the PRC 3 years. I'm not exaggerating) So will it eventually? Yes. As technology matures, becomes more affordable, and most importantly, doesn't need someone with a decade plus experience in a highly specialised field to implement and maintain. Will it be feasible in the time required for a country this big and this poor (per capita is what's important here)? I wouldn't bet on it. It'll be a very long time before Chinese outside of the tier 1 cities benefit from it. Time they don't have. Particularly considering China's thing is still predominantly manufacturing. Which leaves the question of: if machines can do it, why do it in the PRC? This is all part of why there was a race to get rich before they got old. That race has been lost.
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  16. ​​​ jacksmith6015 re you are, buddy. Sure you are. If true, why did you give up your PRC citizenship?
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  17. Easy to answer, but won't answer. And what didn't I answer, exactly? Source?
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  18.  jacksmith6015  if you had a good answer, you'd have chosen to answer 😂
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  19. Basically.
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  20. Can you be more specific on what he's wrong about in this video?
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  21. ​ @jameshobby1525 so what's difficult to understand about ratios and that people who aren't working (such as the elderly) still require resources to survive, even though they're no longer contributing these resources? Only an incredibly simple person thinks the only thing that matters is total numbers
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  22. ​ @jameshobby1525 also, what in this video do you think you're contradicting? Can you give timestamps?
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  23. If it helps, I'm not actually expecting you to give anything more than what's in your imagination.
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  24. So where's he wrong?
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  25.  @Phemruto  I get the impression he's not really the sort of person who should think for himself. It seems like a thing that's extremely easy to improve on.
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  26. The PRC has a gdp per capita of 12.5k. Automation needs highly skilled, highly paid engineers who are in demand globally. Not just to build a system, but to improve and maintain it. These people will follow the money and what's best for their families. The scale of the problem is also massive. Basically, the places that need it most (like any part of China outside of tier 1 cities) are the places that'll get it last.
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  27. The collapse in births isn't a prediction. It's a thing that's been happening for five years.
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  28. I wouldn't have believed how bad it was if I hadn't seen it in the global times. Now I know that no matter how bad it seems, the reality is worse m
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  29. How many robots of the type that can actually replace an entire person do you own? I don't own any. Mostly due to the expense and the lack of things that exist that do what I want. And my income is vastly higher than your average person in the PRC. If I can't afford one, the masses there definitely can't.
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  30. ​ @jphwacheski if you're not looking at robots that have this kind of ability to replace individual people in their entirety at a price someone in the west could afford, you're looking at a wide variety of interconnected parts forming part of a complex system that's requires highly skilled and expensive people to design, build, maintain and improve for each bespoke system. Those people will follow the money. Which isn't in the PRC.
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  31. China's big thing, which it hasn't moved away from relying on, is cheap labour. It doesn't have the money to address the scale of the issue. Automation is basically really, really difficult and needs people who are highly trained and experienced to do it in a useful, sustainable way. The people who can do this (I'm a Linux engineer. Automation is 90 percent of my job) are going to follow the money and the places that can offer their children the best opportunities. This isn't the PRC. Which we can see from the continued emigration and the collapse (which pre-dates the virus) of births over a short time period (over 40 percent in five years, according to official numbers) For contrast, the gdp per capita is about 12.5k usd in the PRC vs 70k in the USA. Yes, cost of living is lower in the PRC, but it's not that much lower. There's also a pretty firm maximum it can add to your pay. If my day to day living expenses were 100 percent paid for in the PRC (as they were in Hong Kong with the taxation difference) financial reasons alone say I still wouldn't move there. So not only is it not going to fix China's problems, but by giving alternative methods of getting cheap labour, it's going to make them worse.
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  32.  @ThePhoenicianDoctor  an example was I was going through a tour of the Mekong with a person from Lego who was in Vietnam to do the groundwork for starting a factory here. China's loss is Vietnam's gain.
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  33.  @gingerlicious3500  Korean war. Sino soviet war. Falun Gong. Fentanyl exports.
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  34.  JackSmith-mk1ru  found me? And you don't know things legally exported can also be illegally smuggled?
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  35. "found u. This is going to be good" disappears. Again
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  36. ​ jacksmith6015 I'd ask if that was meant to be relevant. But we both know it wasn't. All the whataboutism in the world won't change what's happening.
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  37.  jacksmith6015  I like how you felt a need to delete your post
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  38.  JackSmith-mk1ru  counter to what? What dare?
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  39.  JackSmith-mk1ru  you want me to counter my co bot? You dared my co bot? What? You'll need to start being specific. You've stopped making sense. Quote the thing you're replying to.
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  40. I'll put it this way. (there's a lot in there and I'm on a phone) It takes 20 to 25 years to turn a newborn into someone useful. Raising a huge amount of kids (if you can convince people to have them) is expensive. The current leadership will be in their 80's and 90's before they begin to see a benefit. And the scenario that justifies Australia's nuclear submarines, and a general anti PRC alliance is to stop them doing something disastrous to keep the party's leaders in power a little longer. When you're thinking about this, don't ask what's good for the PRC. No one cares. Don't even ask what's good for the party as a whole. Ask what's good for the party's leaders. That's the only context anything will make sense in.
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  41. Long story short, no. Not to remotely the extent they need. I've put more detail in a half other copies of this exact question.
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  42. That's the big danger. They'll attack Taiwan when it's more costly to the CCP's leadership (no one cares about China or the CCP as a whole) to not attack than to attack.
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  43. ​ @DilAbadyi particularly after the reaction to Australia asking for an investigation into how the pandemic started (something that shouldn't have needed to be asked for) showed that China will (ineffectually) attempt to use trade as a weapon.
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  44. Those (generally) aren't agents, they're people who've decided they prefer to live in other places and systems than those the CCP controls. They're not going to be much help as the economy there grinds to a halt. And the children currently being born overseas are far less likely again.
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  45. ​ JackSmith-mk1ru are you trying to make a point here?
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  46. Is he wrong? If so, where?
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  47. ​ JackSmith-mk1ru you run away from sources.
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  48.  @KLRJUNE  he's a wumao of standard quality
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  49. Why is this click bait?
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  50. This is the problem with being a native English speaker. Anyone who you'd want to speak to for work, etc already speaks English. If you don't speak english, you learn English. If you do speak English, you learn......?
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  51. My wife would die laughing if she was asked to return.
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  52. Also, the USA has 5 million. Assuming they were all young (no. Just... No) and all went over, that would be the shortfall between the last year of the one child policy (15 million births, which was already extremely low) and last year (9.56 million births) So, just.... No.
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  53. Which aren't normal people. They're the country's best and brightest. The people they need most.
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  54. You'd be yet another person who says this, but can't name three countries that have seen their birthrates drop by over 40 percent in five years. If you can, please give the countries and the dates.
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  55. This is publicly available information.
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  56. But how do they get anywhere useful? And the important thing isn't size, but ratios.
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  57. ​ @eatinsomtin9984 most of the people arguing against this clearly didn't watch any of the video.
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  58. What's he said that's incorrect or unreasonable?
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  59. Look at the current state. Where is he wrong? What about what he says is unreasonable?
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  60.  @125varma  I'm a father (of a girl who will be of no help to the CCP) 😛 and what I said stands.
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  61. Yet another post that doesn't actually say where he's wrong. Although in fairness, the one person who did attempt to say this was forced to lie to make his point.
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  62. Who's this "we"?
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  63. ​ @loot6 and the speed at which it's happening is just incredible
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  64.  @loot6  that's a rule I've found with the CCP. However bad things are, they've a unmatched genius at making it worse.
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  65.  JackSmith-mk1ru  you've been given sources on this. Then you ran away.
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  66. Yes. But they didn't lift 800 million people. They stopped destroying the economy as much as Mao had.
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  67. Then it was trouble ahead. Now it's a thing that's happening at a rate that's far worse than predicted.
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  68.  @MedicalAutonomyProject  that's what's coming there.
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  69.  @jeanlamb5026  it's hard. My mother gave my brother the car saying he needed it to give my father a way of saving face while doing this. With my Chinese father in law after he picked up my pregnant wife and myself from a train station in north east China it was a bit different... Saying very clearly, while trembling, that he was going to kill someone if he kept driving. I'm used to the driving there, but God damn. That was scary.
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  70. What's a lie, specifically?
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  71. Is he wrong in here? If so, where and why?
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  72. Women.
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  73. Is overall in a much better state and its decline in birthrate isn't as rapid.
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  74. ​ JackSmith-mk1ru that's a question, you halfwit. And you run away from sources like a coward.
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  75. ​ @glixylpoussin fertility per woman is a bit misleading here, with the speed at which births per year are collapsing. 44 percent lower birthrate is more accurate. And declining faster than it has anywhere at any time outside of war or famine.
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  76. ​ jacksmith6015 you've been given sources on this. PRC sources. Not western ones. Then you ran away.
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  77. I've been hearing about how the CCP is going to react and fix this for years. The clock is ticking. In all the years I've been hearing about how they're good to fix it, the problem has gotten worse. Last year, the working age population dropped by 10.75 million. The retirement age population increased by 16.8 million. Next year will be worse. According to official numbers. And keep in mind that it takes 18 to 25 years to turn a newborn into a useful member of society.
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  78.  @safy907  since 2017 each year there's been a 9 to 15 percent decline in births per year. It's now down 45 percent. According to official figures.
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  79.  JackSmith-mk1ru  I can talk well. Which is why you ran away from me.
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  80. They can be trusted to not be worse than reality.
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  81. I've been travelling through Vietnam for the past few weeks and am shocked at just how generally awesome the locals are. So is my Chinese wife. We both got used to Chinese of our generation and younger tending to be borderline sociopaths. That isn't a Chinese thing. I thoroughly loved my time living in Hong Kong. It's a PRC thing. Our only future reason for visits there is family. Even they, we're trying to get the next meeting to be on safe ground. I was stuck during the pandemic. My wife was almost stuck. We have no desire to repeat this.
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  82. In 0 to 4 years, it's still 10 men to 9 women. Teenagers are even worse.
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  83. Is he wrong? If so, where?
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  84. As long as you ignore those hundreds of millions of elderly who still need to be provided for for decades after they retire, combined with a relative dearth of new workers to help sustain them.
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  85. Probably isn't. A large amount out that is about getting money out to where it's safe.
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  86. The data comes from the national bureau of statistics and other state sources.
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  87.  @dimsum947  if the CCP thought it would be this easy to collapse the USA, they'd have done it. This is next level self delusion you've got going here.
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  88. What western country has had its birthrate decline by over 40 percent in five years?
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  89.  @lastpenny849  the figures from China can be relied on to not be worse than reality. What I've given you is the best case numbers (for the PRC) But I'm willing to compensate for their general inaccuracy by changing that to 50 percent if you like.
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  90.  @lastpenny849  do you think thy NBS is unaware of this?
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  91.  @lastpenny849  I can see you won't. You d seem far more interested in distracting attention away from the PRC and pretending things aren't that bad there than you are in honest discussion. And the hard facts here for your whataboutism are: 1. The west can attract and integrate immigrants. The PRC can't. 2. No Western country has or has ever come close to this kind of birth rate decline outside of natural disaster or wartime.
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  92. ​ @johncalla2151 I'm Australian. From a country that was built by immigration from all over the world
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  93.  @johncalla2151  that's right.... Should I wait for your point?
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  94. So who takes care of the elderly?
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  95. Because of the damage they'll do on the way down. The more we oppose it, the less damage they can do as they collapse. As for the Republic of China (Taiwan), it's an independent, democratic country and has been since 1912. 37 years before the secessionist PRC was established. The PRC, which is an enemy state that has recently caused the world massive damage. Damage that could have been mitigated if we'd stopped pretending it wasn't a country run by lying barbarians 10 or 20 years ago.
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  96. Seriously. Why on earth would the civilised world want to help the barbaric CCP? Any fantasy that it might become civilised is simple delusion. Do you have a better argument than nuclear war?
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  97. That's probably because you're yet another person who doesn't understand ratios and that non working elderly need resources to survive
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  98. Because people who don't want two children will respond well to three or more.
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  99. That's been happening for decades. It wasn't enough. Particularly as their hukou screws them.
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  100. What do you think happens when things are so bad your births per year drop by over 40 percent in five years? This is data from the national bureau of statistics.
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  101. From where? How do they attract the sort of people they need in sufficient numbers?
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  102. They're trying their best, anyway.
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  103. Where would they get sufficient immigrants of the type they need and can use?
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  104. Btw, what does the virus stuff have to do with anything in this video?
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  105.  @jimhom2673  it's not just that. You need enough capital to attract highly skilled people with a globally in demand skillset to a place that, except for Shanghai, they don't want to go. To say nothing of anything second tier and below.
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  106.  @jimhom2673  for the last bit. In Australia, my daughter is Australian without question. In the UK, she's British without question. In China, she isn't and never will be Chinese. China is not a place to go for the long term at the best of times.
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  107.  @powerandpresence5290  when I'd done the math before, they'd need to attract something like 3/4 of global immigrants to make up for losses since the end of the one child policy. Basically, it's the closest thing to a solution they've got, but it's still not going to happen. The CCP completely and utterly failed to prepare for the most predictable policy outcome ever.
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  108. I was on holiday there recently. Went on the Mekong delta with a fellow from Lego who was there setting up a new factory.
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  109. ​ @MedicalAutonomyProject basic literacy.
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  110. The scale of the problem is too big. Add to this that not many people outside of the PRC speak mandarin (relative to 1.4 billion inside it) Its wealth is small compared with its scale. This needs seriously skilled labour that's in demand all over the world. Plus so much other stuff.
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  111. China's "economic miracle" is based on recovering from the incredible damage done by Mao.
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  112. ​ @Ajax-wo3gt he's a halfwit who knows two things. How to ask for a source (but not when) How to run away.
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  113.  @jimhom2673  plus, the euro barely made a dent in it. So that's the entire EU vs China plus south Africa (similar gdp to Victoria) Russia (just... Lol. An economy that will drive the world it is not) and Argentina (similar gdp to new south Wales) and Brazil (slightly larger gdp than Australia as a whole) When people get excited about a few countries with GDPs similar to Australia or parts of Australia doing stuff, they've got very little to be excited about.
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  114. He's been saying the births will crash for 20 years? Well. It's happening right now. It's spent the last five years accelerating at an incredible pace.
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  115. That's just not going to happen. Language, racism, different culture. It's not going to happen.
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  116. Except what they needed was exceeded. And now, thanks to their overreaction to Mao's incompetence, and thanks in part to keeping the reaction going far too long, they're looking at at least one and probably multiple generations growing old without enough young workers to take care of them. The CCP overreacted to a problem the CCP created, resulting in the CCP creating yet another catastrophe.
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  117. Yet another halfwit who doesn't understand ratios.
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  118. The scale of the issue, combined with the PRC's per capita poverty and overly difficult language says they can't
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  119.  @zigfreidbop  how do you communicate with the people who give you money? English is a very special case. In addition to being the language of trade, and so spoken by massive amounts of educated people round the world, it's got a simple alphabet. I only need to read a few dozen letters and punctuation symbols to be able to read anything. If I can speak a word, I can probably read it. I can probably also write it. I only really need to learn English once. By contrast, I can read 300 characters. I'm still illiterate. The number for basic literacy is 2500 characters. Someone learning Chinese needs to learn it twice. The spoken (with tones. Tones are the worst until you've got the ear for them) and written.
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  120. That was an overall population collapse. This is a population collapse focused on current and future workers
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  121.  @Beery1962  not even close. Retirees are dependents. Much like children, but children will generally eventually become workers. Dependents take resources to maintain. Resources need workers to produce them or make them available in some useful way. Yes, they've got savings in the form of property, cash, shares, etc, but you can't eat or drink these. They don't provide medical care. They're just things you can exchange for these things with the current generation of workers. The resources that they use are resources that can't be put into things that'll give you a future benefit. China's "economic miracle" has been based on a combination of the CCP not going out of its way to actively screw up the economy like Mao did and a population with a massive worker to dependent ratio. What happens when one (or both) of these foundations reverses?
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  122. Why?
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  123.  jacksmith6015  this is the one where I asked your source and you ran away? Again?
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  124.  jacksmith6015  source?
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  125.  jacksmith6015  I can't see anything from them that says this. So... Source
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  126.  jacksmith6015  this is what I found in no time.  "The Chinese balloon that crossed the continental US from Alaska to the east coast in February did not collect any information, the Pentagon says. The US "took steps to mitigate" what intelligence the suspected spy balloon could collect, officials said on Thursday." A weather balloon (this size, and kept quiet about) would have been expected to collect I info. CCP incompetence doesn't mean they didn't try.
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  127. Except this isn't a forecast. The decline is happening right now. It has been for the last five years
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  128. So which of these countries is doing badly enough to have its birthrate almost halve over half a decade?
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  129. Plenty of people who'd like to pretend that it is, and that immigration is a potential solution to this catastrophe.
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  130.  jacksmith6015  you've given up on trying to make sense. Which by your standards is truly impressive.
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  131.  jacksmith6015  what are you ignorant enough to doubt, exactly?
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  132. What countries have dropped by almost half (over 40 percent) in 5 years? Especially 5 years of peace time. Collapse is a relative term here.
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  133. What don't you believe, exactly?
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  134. ​ @jphwacheski non fiction gives us the best stories.
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  135. What do you think happens when your birth rate halves in five years?
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  136.  jacksmith6015  of what?
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  137.  jacksmith6015  you don't know what an apologist is.
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  138.  jacksmith6015  9.5 million births last year. 17.8 million in 2017. From the global times, taken from the national bureau of statistics. "There has been a declining curve of yearly new births in China– 17.86 million, 17.23 million, 15.23 million and 14.65 million in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 respectively, according to data released by the NBS." "China's population fell by 850,000 in 2022 from the previous year, the National Statistics Bureau (NBS) said in February. The number of births was 9.56 million last year, or 6.77 per 1,000 people, data from the bureau showed."
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  139.  jacksmith6015  you're below south Korea now. And plummeting year on year (source above) "The current birth rate for South Korea in 2023 is 6.769 births per 1000 people, a 1.93% decline from 2022" That declined by less than 2 percent year on year. The numbers above show that a normal annual decline for the PRC is between 7 and 15 percent.
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  140.  @artiemanable  no. It's the PRC's. According to the numbers I posted. And no they won't. This is about ratios, not raw numbers.
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  141.  @artiemanable  I can't post links, but those quotes I put in should get you what you're after. And no, it's ratios of dependents to workers. Unless they're going to start culling the retired population, each of those extra elderly people simply isn't an asset. They're a massive liability. They take resources that the things you're talking about need. If they did start culling the population above X age, I'd agree. But how do you think your average 30 year old is going to react to its parents being euthanised because the same govt spending decades murderering their potential siblings?
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  142.  @artiemanable  compare the Chinese population over 50 to the American one as well. This is all summed up by the race to get rich before they got old. That's a race they've lost. Anyway, it defines where their resources are going. Each working person is capable of producing A units of productivity. Each non working person consumes B units of productivity. The resources the country has to work with for productive purposes are taken from C, which is A - B. Fewer workers, less A. More retirees, more B. C gets smaller and smaller, so the country has less and less to put towards something that's actually useful. This is more than should need to be explained, and if you're going to ignore the raw numbers of the downside (retirees) while playing up the raw numbers of the upside (workers and future workers) I'm going to need to ask you when they'll start euthanasing their elderly. Because that's the only way you're argument makes sense. As for Japan, it took decades to have the birthrate decline the PRC achieved in half a decade. It also marked the end of their rise. They are where they were.
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  143.  @artiemanable  I'm really not. But it's simply obvious that you either can't don't want to understand the problem. If you simply don't understand what I'm saying, how about you pick out a bit you think is irrelevant, then I'll explain it to you? I can assure you, my facts are straight.
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  144.  jacksmith6015  right here 😊
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  145. In the high profile tier 1 cities. The rest... Good luck. The moneys been spent.
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  146.  jacksmith6015  that you ran away when given sources you asked for says otherwise.
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  147.  jacksmith6015  ah. Lying. This is where you pretend that you didn't ask for a source in China's crashing births, then run away when given the global times info sourced from the NBS. Just like you didn't lie about which other countries have experienced a similar decline over five years, then run away when asked for dates.
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  148.  jacksmith6015  @jacksmith6015 9.5 million births last year. 17.8 million in 2017. From the global times, taken from the national bureau of statistics. "There has been a declining curve of yearly new births in China– 17.86 million, 17.23 million, 15.23 million and 14.65 million in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 respectively, according to data released by the NBS." "China's population fell by 850,000 in 2022 from the previous year, the National Statistics Bureau (NBS) said in February. The number of births was 9.56 million last year, or 6.77 per 1,000 people, data from the bureau showed."
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  149. When my uncle was sick, to check his mental state the doctors or medics would ask what party was in charge. His answer was the communist party. Not an Ardern fan.
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  150. It was implemented in the aftermath of Mao's disastrous policies. Cause and effect.
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  151.  @scottticketsplz  because they're terrified of another famine. Mao also encouraged people to have big families.
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  152.  @scottticketsplz  who's joking?
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  153.  @scottticketsplz  setting the scene for making people spend the next four decades murdering their extra children is quite the punch line.
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  154. Our side needs to put effort into being ready for a large war. Best case: it averts war by preventing it from ever giving the CCP's leadership a net positive benefit. Worst case: we're prepared for when they go to war to remain in power a little longer.
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  155. You don't see a collapse of workers in one of the world's biggest economies as a long term relevant thing?
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  156. 2016 and 2017 were the entirety of pent up demand from 40 years of the one child policy.
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  157.  jacksmith6015  you're a coward who runs away from sources. Also, on automation, I'm a primary source.
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  158.  jacksmith6015  I am a source. And you run away from official sources. Why would I bother? Your entire contribution here has been screaming for sources, then running away.
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  159. ​ jacksmith6015 fentanyl is a lovely comeback. And the PRC isn't the Chinese people. Why would I like the country the CCP has created? And I did have sources. I presented them. You ran away. Like a coward.
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  160.  JackSmith-mk1ru  lol @ "him" Anyway, feel free to quote exactly the thing that you're doubting and why you doubt it. Something better than a generic bleating for "source"
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  161.  JackSmith-mk1ru  debunked what? When? "China rate"? What's "China rate" meant to be? What's the context? Source?
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  162. It's what they'd need to do. But seeing your parents get murdered is a bit different to seeing a foetus. For a start, it's a lot more public. For a second, you've had more time to get attached to your parents. For a third, then they're murdering the first generation that was forced to murder its own children to stop exactly this from happening.
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  163.  JackSmith-mk1ru  in China. They killed plenty. With a policy of forced abortions. You've been given sources for the result of this. You ran away immediately afterwards.
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  164.  @jerzyzbiaowiezy6249  they can. It's even a thing that might happen. I'd say it's more likely to be done by a successor government that doesn't bear responsibility for over 7 decades of CCP cock-ups. The CCP leadership will be murdered or have escaped to the evil, capitalist west when things get that bad.
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  165.  JackSmith-mk1ru  to spread the thing that the other account that you're claiming wasn't you ran away from: @jacksmith6015 9.5 million births last year. 17.8 million in 2017. From the global times, taken from the national bureau of statistics. "There has been a declining curve of yearly new births in China– 17.86 million, 17.23 million, 15.23 million and 14.65 million in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 respectively, according to data released by the NBS." "China's population fell by 850,000 in 2022 from the previous year, the National Statistics Bureau (NBS) said in February. The number of births was 9.56 million last year, or 6.77 per 1,000 people, data from the bureau showed."
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  166. What they say is a good baseline for what things are worse than.
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  167. How so?
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  168. My father was a genius gardener with an obsession with cacti. Her garden looks far less stabby.
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  169.  JackSmith-mk1ru  they worked on me just fine. Which is why you ran away from me multiple times.
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  170. Yet another post that thinks it's wrong, but doesn't show a single sign the video was watched. What was incorrect in what he said?
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  171. They were blindsided by the effect of the one child policy. That destroys the "they're not stupid" narrative on its own. Anything else is just gravy.
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  172. If you can replace their workforce with robots (which aren't a magic wand) why would you get them to make stuff?
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  173. But they're losing the ones they need (workers and future workers) while keeping the ones they don't need (elderly will never work again while continuing to consume resources)
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  174. It's all peachy. And that's why the PRC has in five years gone from merely having an uncomfortably low birthrate to the lowest in the world.
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  175. It's just extremely bad news for people who expect to grow old in China.
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  176. Probably good. It distracts people from yet another issue. Sure, China can't afford to lose yet more young people, but at over 70, that's more China's problem than his.
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  177. They'd like to, but simply put, China is a poor country. What you see in photos of tier 1 cities like Shanghai are very much the exception. It's the best China has to offer by a wide margin. The majority of people don't live in places like that. As far as seeing the same results, no. The scale of what's going on in China has just never been seen. In the last 5 years alone, the birthrate has dropped by about 45 percent. Since 1965 (someone born then just entered retirement and probably has a bit over 20 years to live) it's dropped by a little over 80 percent. Since the introduction of the one child policy it's dropped by almost 70 percent. Assuming they raise the retirement age to 65, when three people born when it was introduced retire, they will be replaced by one worker.
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  178. There's...... Already plenty of need. Even without keeping this disastrous policy (made necessary by the CCP's former policies) going this long. Why would they need more space? How would killing off the workers who will still be needed to pay for all this provide this space?
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  179.  JackSmith-mk1ru  oh, you're back. But you're strangely quiet after being given the quote from the Pentagon that showed you were full of bollocks. Anyway, what, exactly was debunked? When was it debunked? Source and quotes?
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  180.  @dirtydawg448  if you can spend four decades forcing people to have abortions, you're probably ok with a bit of resistance.
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  181. It sounds like you're not going to tell us where he's wrong and why.
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  182.  jacksmith6015  that list had nothing to do with this video.
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  183.  jacksmith6015  what part of the video are you responding to here? I haven't seen you say a single thing that actually needs you to have watched the video to say.
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  184. Well there are three ways of looking at it. Pro choice. Pro life All civilised people can get behind at least one of these. Then there's being anti choice and anti life. Whatever side you're on in the debate in the west, that's barbaric.
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  185. Yet another post that will almost certainly not lead to any evidence the poster has watched the video. What did he say that's wrong?
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  186. 45 percent decline in births per year in five years. They're nowhere near as pronounced as the PRC. You're just ignorant.
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  187. When China's industry is outsourced to them, what's the point in China? And as far as immigrants go, from where do they get the kind of people they need that they can make use of in sufficient numbers? With how things are going, needing 10m plus is easily on the cards.
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  188. Are you saying he's wrong?
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  189. ​ @K12war I'll agree that you can't keep going indefinitely. But the issue with the PRC isn't that it's happening, so much as how fast it's happening (a drop that took Japan over three decades took them three years. I'm not exaggerating) and how unprepared they are for it. There was a race to get rich before they got old. They lost that race.
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  190. This is true if they became rich before it happened. But they didn't. Now they've got a future in which a massive amount of resources is going to be spent supporting the cost of that failed race.
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  191. 100 million dead with nothing to show for it. Mao alone ensured that the worst thing Hitler did was create a world in which Stalin and the USSR were taken seriously.
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  192. ​ @jimhom2673 if it was, then we can add that to their list of failures.
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  193. ​ @jameshom6171 you'd need something that focused on the elderly and killed close to half to get the results they're after.
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  194. ​ @jameshom6171 I'd easily go along with that it was a bioweapon they released accidentally. Just not for this purpose.
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  195. So... Yet another generic post attempting to dismiss him without actually saying where and how he's wrong.
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  196. These things cost money. Lots of money. Money that the PRC, with its 2k usd per capita savings and sky-rocketing local govt debt just doesn't have. AI and robotics will help the places that need them least first. Poor places like basically all of China that's not a tier 1 city (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing and by some definitions, Shenyang) simply don't and won't have.
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  197. ​ jacksmith6015 a pointless copy and paste that did nothing to address what was said.
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  198.  @morgan1719  I didn't say the Chinese people. I said the PRC. Which is the amount of foreign reserves it has. The Chinese people's savings are irrelevant. The RMB isn't freely convertible and will decline in value as the country's economy declines. They need foreign currency to get the things they'll need from the outside world to help deal with this. And they don't have much. Also, PPP is only a useful measurement for things for which the international market is limited. As soon as you get to something that's in demand internationally, it becomes fairly meaningless.
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  199.  @morgan1719   your post illustrates why PPP is irrelevant on the global market. Those people we see in the west. They're China's best and brightest. And they've followed the money out of the PRC. They're of no further use to the PRC after they've done this. For those who remain in the PRC, you can see their opinion of their conditions by the fact that they're ceasing to have children at an unprecedented rate. BTW, it looks like you need to be reminded that the drop in birthrate isn't a prediction. It's current reality. How many workers there will be in 18 years is a prediction, but it's an easy one to make.
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  200. So is he wrong?
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  201. Yet another post that shows no sign of actually watching the video. More mindlessly pretentious than most, though. But still an empty post from an empty skull.
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  202. In five decades, the world's technology will probably be a little better improved to deal with this sort of thing.
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  203. Now ask yourself how that happened.
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  204. What countries have had a greater than 40 percent decline in births per year in five years of peacetime?
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  205. The black death didn't leave masses of elderly who would never be net contributors again consuming resources.
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  206. I've been going there regularly over the last two decades. Up until the virus. Mostly to the north east to see family, but also living in Hong Kong for two years. Exposure does NOT make it look like a better country. What's said is an understatement.
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  207. Immigration isn't an answer. Because of the scale of the issue, the language and cultural difficulties and that the PRC is poor on a per capita basis and has no chance of attracting the sort of people they need in the numbers they need.
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  208.  jacksmith6015  specifically, which of these are you so ignorant you weren't aware?
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  209. What do you call a greater than 40 percent reduction in births over the last five years? This is the official number.
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  210. A long way.
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  211. What developed country had its birthrate decline by over 40 percent in five years? When did this happen?
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  212. What is he saying that's untrue or unreasonable?
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  213. Not to mention our economy crashing pandemics. The cost of the last few years probably outweighed all we've ever saved from made in China.
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  214. They're wealthier, they can attract immigrants and their birthrate is higher
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  215. If they could have, the time to start doing it was five years ago. When it was clear that the two (then three) child policy wasn't going to give more than a small bump. It takes 20 to 25 years to make a newborn useful. If they could reverse it, why are they wasting time by not doing these things?
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  216.  @IvanRandomDude  that's births per woman, which is a bit of a steadier figure. The Polish birthrate in 2022 was 9.298 The PRC birthrate was 6.77. So Poland isn't close, it's over a third higher. This isn't saying that using their methods will work for China. It's just highlighting how much worse the situation is there.
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  217. ​ @irresistablejewel so what you're saying here is you need to have ratios and that the elderly need resources long after they've stopped producing. Resources that come from somewhere. Resources that aren't being put into long term improvements.
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  218. ​ JackSmith-mk1ru he is the source for this statement.
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  219. At this moment, they already have the worst aspects of it.
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  220. It could be titled "and then it got worse." Although you'd need to split it into pre and post 1976
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  221. The speed at which it happened and the low level of economic development.
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  222. This is basically a fantasy that will never happen. And even if it would happen, it's not nearly enough. It would boost their population by about 3 percent. The ratios (which are the real problem) would probably remain roughly similar to the PRC. Better, but not that much better. So it put them back in the same situation, with a bunch of extra problems on top. Even if it would happen, which it simply wouldn't. A good clue to the lack of easy options is what the CCP has basically given up. It hasn't attempted any of these miracle solutions, and it really, really needs to.
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  223. ​ @gregginter5867 basically, they won't. If they were going to, they would have by now. They'll look like they're trying to do something, but they just won't.
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  224. It's a best believable case scenario. The reality is worse
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  225.  jacksmith6015  are you trying to say the bureau of statistics is going to display data that's worse for the PRC than reality?
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  226. Economics is more than just money. It's productivity. Our economic system is what separates us from North Korea. Mao killed somewhere between 20 (official estimate) and 70 (highest reasonable estimate) million people trying to make his economic ideas work.
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  227. What has he said that's incorrect or unreasonable?
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  228.  @moralambush  where did he say that in this video? Is there anything he's said here that's incorrect or unreasonable?
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  229.  jacksmith6015  uh huh.
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  230.  jacksmith6015  I have. Repeatedly. Then you became so desperate you chose to believe a random internet site had better data than the Chinese bureau of statistics or state run media.
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  231. ​ jacksmith6015 you had already shown you thought it was good enough. Why should I use more for there for Japan? For the PRC, though, it's simply wrong. You've been given the math that shows this.
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  232.  jacksmith6015  hypocrisy would be claiming it's a good enough source, then deciding it wasn't when it was used against you. I'm using it as a source I've seen you accept. Why shouldn't I use a source I know you trust? (which is more than you can say for the official Chinese statistics) I don't have to believe it to know that you do.
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  233.  jacksmith6015  if you're now saying it's wrong, though, feel free to do what I did. Get the data from an official source that shows it's wrong.
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  234. The big question is always: From where could they get that number of people? And how would they convince the numbers of the sort of people they need to move to the PRC in the quantities they need?
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  235. Can you name three countries that have had their birthrates decline by over 40 percent in five years? Also, which of those also has a gdp per capita of close to 12.5k?
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  236.  @SomeCanine  yes they did. And the consequences of that are just starting to bite them. And I'm aware of japan. China is getting ready to make what Japan went through seem like a dream. It took Japan 32 years to do the same reduction in births per year that the PRC did in three. A snapshot of now is fairly irrelevant. What matters is what's coming.
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  237. Bad economies are more likely to have food shortages.
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  238.  @kevincrouch3956  I've seen multitudes of people saying this. What I haven't seen is anyone saying what's incorrect or unreasonable in this video. There should be lots. Right?
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  239.  JackSmith-mk1ru  if he was, you'd be specific.
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  240.  JackSmith-mk1ru  source?
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  241.  JackSmith-mk1ru  what I've found is different. Source?
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  242.  @kevincrouch3956  1. Fair, but slightly picky. 2. The data coming out of the PRC can be relied on to be slanted in a way that's favourable to the PRC. The reality is worse. Those two things also aren't a contradiction. 3. You take what you can get. 4. What's wrong with that? 5. What country has had a greater than 40 percent decline in births per year in five years? Yes, it's a global thing, but that country has it happening that quickly?
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  243.  JackSmith-mk1ru  what's your source?
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  244.  @kevincrouch3956  does it still? The PRC's birthrate has been lower than Japan's since 2021. It's continued to decline since then. The only way the PRC wouldn't have the title in that case is from its elderly dying sooner.
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  245.  @kevincrouch3956    Going through it again with your points in mind. He said fastest ageing workforce in the world. Not fastest ageing population. That's your straw man. If you're going to get upset at me saying you're being picky, you're definitely going to need to accept I'm being reasonable here. And he didn't say China was the most populous country. He said it wasn't this year that India became the most populous country. That probably happened a decade ago. So I'll retract my statement about you being fair, but picky. You were just wrong. And that's the two points I raised that you felt you could respond to in any way. Which were a straw man and you misunderstanding or mishearing what he actually said.
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  246.  @kevincrouch3956  he said ageing workforce. Not population. So either way, your objection to what he said is based on a straw man.
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  247.  @kevincrouch3956  uh huh. Dude. You made a fuss of things that blatantly weren't what he said. You said he had less credibility than his flower garden based on things that were in your imagination, rather than in the video. He's not the one who lacks credibility here. Especially by the bar you yourself set.
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  248.  @kevincrouch3956  by acknowledging that there's two different criterion for them. An ageing population covers birth to death. An ageing workforce covers roughly 18 years old to retirement. There's overlap, but they're not the same. They diverge when there's large bubbles of age ranges (as in the PRC) instead of a regular, continuous level (as in Japan). Don't worry, though. The PRC is doing everything it can to fulfil all possible rapid ageing criterion. This one is accelerating fastest because it's a smaller portion of the overall population. And maybe someone who's throwing a tantrum shouldn't be suggesting the person he's talking with is 12 (or 8 or whatever)
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  249.  @kevincrouch3956  you do love your straw men, don't you? I said there's overlap, but they're not the same. One is a subset of the other. The subset isn't the whole. It is different. That shouldn't be difficult to understand.
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  250.  @kevincrouch3956  I didn't say it wasn't. It's strange that you thought I said that. I said that looking at a slice gives different data to looking at the whole. Do you really not understand how different segments can give different results?
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  251.  @kevincrouch3956  yeah this stack of bluster on a very simple concept could be taken more seriously if it obviously wasn't the last thing out of about five issues raised you felt you could hang on to. It's not even the only straw man you've attempted here (considering how clear he was on when India overtook China's population, I was being very generous when I put it down to you mishearing what was said)
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  252.  @kevincrouch3956    this desperation to not be wrong on every single argument you've raised is playing hopscotch over the border between hilarious and sad. Anyway, please quote the facts and confirmed figures you've used here. Remember to keep it to arguments you didn't abandon a day ago. Your silence on those shows you know that even if you're right, it's an irrelevant thing to be correct on.
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  253.  @kevincrouch3956  speaking of facts and confirmed figures. For total population: (not the subset he actually said) Median ages: Japan 2000 40.7 China 2000 28.9 Japan 2020 48 China 2020 37.4 Absolute ageing: Japan 7.3 years China 8.5 years Increase as a percentage. Japan: 18% China: 29%
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  254.  @kevincrouch3956  lol. I'd say of course you are, but you've got less credibility than the flower garden.
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  255.  @jimhom2673  thanks. Taking a look. I've found it's not a question of whether the PRC is screwed, but the weird and wonderful set of self inflicted ways in which they're screwed.
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  256. ​ JackSmith-mk1ru was that meant to make sense?
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  257. Unless you're going to off yourself when you retire, you're going to need a next generation to support you. Your savings are meaningless if there's no one who will exchange them for goods and services
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  258. ​ @saosaqii5807 by that point the industry would be destroyed and the less than 2 percent increase of people from a country that's also ageing (albeit not nearly as fast) wouldn't be much of a help.
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  259. The birthrate dropped well over 40 percent since 2017. Which is what's being talked about here. What other successful country has had this happen during peacetime?
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  260. You'll watch this start to be sold off at bargain prices.
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  261. The same thing as happened June 4th 1989. Absolutely nothing.
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  262.  jacksmith6015  proof of what? That nothing happened on June 4th 1989? Well, I'm willing to be proven wrong here. How about you fill us in?
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  263.  jacksmith6015  proof of what, exactly?
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  264.  jacksmith6015  what hasn't been proved?
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  265. ​ JackSmith-mk1ru cute to see second language learners who think the US is falling apart claim to be from the US.
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  266. Tell that to the national bureau of statistics. But it is an impressive feat. Right up there with not having nearly enough women while considering those above 25 to be too old.
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  267. Which is why the world needs to prepare as quickly as possible to minimise the damage. A war will start when not starting a war is more damaging to the CCP than starting one. That day is coming, and the west pretending it won't happen is simply making the inevitable more damaging. The only way this doesn't happen is if things degrade quickly enough that the attempt to start a war fizzles due to how blatantly cynical a distraction it is.
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  268. It took Japan 32 years to get the drop i in birthrates that the PRC achieved in three years. The PRC's birth rates are now lower than south Korea's according to official state media numbers. Next year they'll be much lower.
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  269. ​​ @mcfly7 ts aftermath lives on. The biggest thing that determines the size of a family is the size of the families the parents came from. We've had two generations of parents who were only children to make that cultural change. The generation being born will solidify it even more. Now births per year are less than two thirds of what they were in the final year of the one child policy.
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  270. ​ @mcfly7 yeah, if you think it was done for altruistic reasons thinking on a global scale, I'm just going to give you a funny look.
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  271. It's called rats deserting a sinking ship.
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  272. ​ jacksmith6015 it's strange that someone living in America hasn't heard that expression. And why would I need to? I've already given proof using official statistics that the children are rapidly no longer being born. Emigration is a drop in the bucket by comparison m
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  273. The population crash is happening right now. It has for the last six years. What do you think happens to a society when people simply give up on having children en masse?
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  274. What do you think an ongoing collapse would look like if not things being so bad that people give up on having children en masse? This isn't a reduction because they got rich. This is an unprecedented plummet because people can't afford another generation.
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  275.  @kchen1987   . The one child policy has been gone for seven years. That was the reason to hide births. The age Chinese women are most likely to give birth at is 27. The number of 27 year old women is going to decline for another decade, before rising back to current (extremely inadequate) levels, then sharply declining again. And the TFR hasn't been remotely like this for decades. Nor has it been going down gradually. This year looks set to be half of the final year of the one child policy WITHOUT the reason to lie that existed then.
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  276. ​ @kchen1987 . You think there's going to be a sudden massive surge in births starting right now? Because that's what you need. Someone born today will enter a workforce that's dropped in size by over ten percent in the previous decade. With the next decade looking to be so much worse. I also love how you didn't come close to addressing that this collapse is happening RIGHT NOW.
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  277.  @kchen1987 . The data is from the Chinese national bureau of statistics. You can also find global times articles giving the same number (from that source) And I love the clutching at straws from "there are still a lot of (unnamed) factors to account for" The five years ending last year had a 45 percent drop in birthrates. The five years ending this year look to be over 50 percent. If that isn't collapse, what is?
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  278.  @kchen1987 . When someone lies, they normally do it to benefit themselves. It doesn't just make whatever they say a random thing. So the lies normally go in one direction. Giving us a reliable baseline for the best case scenario. Which means that whatever the NBS is saying, the reality is worse. I shouldn't have needed to explain this.
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  279.  @kchen1987 . Numbers need to be halfway believable. You might be gullible, but when normal people see schools start to shut down because of a lack of enrolments (as one example), they have a chance to put two and two together. This would be difficult to reconcile with "removing the two child policy worked!" Which is why what we've got here is the best case scenario. Whatever the reality is, it's worse. And I'm just going to laugh at "strategic deception" it's nothing of the sort. The one child policy went far too far. The conditions in the PRC are getting worse and the problem is too big to hide.
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  280.  @kchen1987 . This is counting births. Do you think Chinese hospitals are incapable of keeping records of births?
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  281.  @kchen1987  did.... Did you really not think that just collecting data from hospitals (where the vast majority of people tend to give birth) was the most effective way of getting this data? Did you really think a national census had to be carried out each year to figure this out? (why else would you mention the difficulties in counting over a billion people?) Sure, it's not 100%, but it's going to be pretty close. Particularly now that there's no widespread reason to hide births. At a minimum, we should see the proportion of people giving birth at them in a place like the PRC increasing each year rather than rapidly decreasing. Or birth registrations also work. I'd filled out the paperwork a few days after my daughter was born. That date was immediately available to the govt. Because I'd just given it to them. Birth certificates are generally a thing that becomes useful later in life. Wumao (you say you're not Chinese. I'll pretend to believe this, but after this display you're clearly qualified as an honourary one) really do a wonderful job of showing just how mentally deficient you need to be to argue the pro CCP lines.
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  282. ​ @MikeOmmends which brings us back to... What do you think an ongoing collapse would look like if not things being so bad that people give up on having children en masse? This isn't a reduction because they got rich. This is an unprecedented plummet because people can't afford another generation.
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  283. Where's he wrong?
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  284. What do you think happens when the situation is bad enough to make the annual number of births almost halve in five years?
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  285.  jacksmith6015  what's 9.56 (2022 births in millions) divided by 17.2 (2017 births in millions)?
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  286.  @Mae-nr7wr  if you weren't projecting, you'd have answered my very relevant question.
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  287.  jacksmith6015  well?
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  288.  jacksmith6015  waiting. It's simple math 😊 @jacksmith6015 9.5 million births last year. 17.8 million in 2017. From the global times, taken from the national bureau of statistics. "There has been a declining curve of yearly new births in China– 17.86 million, 17.23 million, 15.23 million and 14.65 million in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 respectively, according to data released by the NBS." "China's population fell by 850,000 in 2022 from the previous year, the National Statistics Bureau (NBS) said in February. The number of births was 9.56 million last year, or 6.77 per 1,000 people, data from the bureau showed."
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  289.  jacksmith6015  did you miss this again?
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  290. In a year, the birth rates will be even worse.
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  291. An understanding of the importance of ratios.
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  292. The children are the pension. What happens when the parent's retirement plan gets killed? How brave will the soldiers be, knowing that if they die or are disabled, their parents starve?
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  293. Instead for the PRC, the men increasingly just don't exist. (but they're still not nearly as nonexistent as women are becoming) Also, I'm going to just have a laugh at the irony here. Transvestites are common in India and with sex ratios the PRC approaching six men to five (this ignores how culturally picky men and women are about partners) women, well.... Eventually a hole is a hole. China is on its way to being the world's twink capital.
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  294. Source: China’s gender imbalance may take decades to resolve By Chen Shasha Source: Global Times Published: 2020/12/11 22:28:40 China is faced with a huge gender imbalance, with the male population exceeding the female population by more than 30 million, data from China's National Bureau of Statistics shows. The imbalance in the post-2000s and population of marriageable age are even more urgent. In 2019, the ages with the most imbalanced gender ratios (males per 100 females) in China were children aged 10-14 years and 15-19 years. In these two age groups, the gender ratios were 119.10 and 118.39, respectively, meaning there were about 120 men for every 100 women, data shows.
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  295. ​ jacksmith6015 with that imbalance, it really can't. To say nothing of the general preference women all over the world have for men at least a little older than them. Which means those younger men are going to have even more problems finding someone. Anyway, someone living in America should know this, it's a fairly common term Twink: (among gay men) a gay or bisexual young man with a slim build and youthful appearance.
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  296. ​ jacksmith6015 the key here is I married a Chinese woman. Which is far more than so many Chinese men can say. Btw, why are you wasting time here being in denial about how much sodomy the next generation of Chinese males are going to receive when you could be discussing how wrong you are on the collapse of births over the last half decade? You seem to have run away from information you asked for. Again
    1
  297. What's he wrong about here, specifically? Can you give something that shows you've actually watched the video?
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  298.  @CaptainCaveman782  repeating my last question.
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  299. Where's he wrong in this video?
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  300. What western country is worse? The PRC is now below south Korea's birthrate. It took Japan 32 years to decline in a way that the PRC achieved in three years.
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  301. ​ jacksmith6015 I know you're not intelligent enough to understand anything beyond raw numbers. Just like I know that you're not capable of understanding that the elderly aren't as capable of working and still require resources. But I'm talking to someone who's so clueless he thinks birth rates are a percentage.
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  302. You'd be another person who will never actually say where he's wrong in this video.
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  303. The problem is too big. And where would they get enough mandarin speaking immigrants?
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  304. Eventually. Which is why we need to stop deluding ourselves that anything we do to appease them will stop war. When things are bad enough that they need a distraction, they'll manufacture an excuse to start something that keeps them in power a little longer.
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  305. The only thing that makes this post different to the mass of others that say it's wrong without giving details is it adds an excuse for not giving and details.
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  306.  @loot6  even if they could, it would only start to be solved in 20 years. The ways in which they've screwed themselves are rich and varied. It seems there's no limit to the aspects of how badly the CCP has screwed up that can be examined.
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  307. ​ @LP-wk6uv they're on Wikipedia. Although the PRC one is a few years out of date. It only goes up to 2020 and the situation has gotten so much worse since then.
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  308. At least.
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  309. Because as we saw from the pandemic, what happens in the PRC is able to affect the rest of the world.
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  310. It'll be right after the entry simply titled "Mao"
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  311. Where's he wrong?
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  312.  @blitzen2009  what's nonsense, exactly? What data do you want to see? Would Chinese (state controlled) media referencing the Chinese national bureau of statistics plus some very simple math be enough?
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  313.  @blitzen2009  yes. This is true. But: 1. They CAN import enough migrants. 2. Taking the USA as an example, its birthrate is close to twice the PRC's (12 per thousand vs 6.77 per thousand and dropping fast) 3. Each of these countries has several times the per capita gdp of the PRC, meaning they've got more resources they can throw at the problem. 4. They're not ageing nearly as quickly as the PRC. And finally for 5.... Whatever's going on in other countries doesn't change what's happening in the PRC in the least.
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  314. It's amazing how the offer of data from official state sources produces silence.
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  315. ​ @eatinsomtin9984 that 0.4 is even worse when you remember it's fertility per female. And that a massive amount of girls were murdered thanks to parents who wanted a son only getting one shot under the one child policy
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  316.  @eatinsomtin9984  it's not whether they're screwed, but the wide variety of self inflicted ways in which they are.
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  317.  @eatinsomtin9984  Taiwan has made good choices. The CCP definitely took the worst parts of Chinese culture and amplified them though.
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  318. ​ JackSmith-mk1ru yes I have. But thank you for showing you're willing to lie.
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  319.  JackSmith-mk1ru  you hadn't seen one? You should probably give exactly what you're wanting a source on. You were given this: 9.5 million births last year. 17.8 million in 2017. From the global times, taken from the national bureau of statistics. "There has been a declining curve of yearly new births in China– 17.86 million, 17.23 million, 15.23 million and 14.65 million in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 respectively, according to data released by the NBS." "China's population fell by 850,000 in 2022 from the previous year, the National Statistics Bureau (NBS) said in February. The number of births was 9.56 million last year, or 6.77 per 1,000 people, data from the bureau showed."
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  320. The decline in births isn't a prediction. It's what's happening right now. From 2017 to last year, that's five years, births per year declined by over 40 percent. They're more than a third lower now than they were in the last year of the one child policy.
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  321.  JackSmith-mk1ru  source: Chinese national bureau of statistics. Which you know.
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  322.  JackSmith-mk1ru  what you did was show you think birth rates are a percentage. You also showed you trusted a random site more than the official statistics from the Chinese govt
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  323.  JackSmith-mk1ru  ouch. The sound of crickets is deafening.
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  324. Besides people who realised that it took women to create children, and that they could generally only produce one at a time, obviously.
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  325. ​ jacksmith6015 there's two independent countries with China in their names.
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  326. ​ JackSmith-mk1ru it doesn't have enough to offer its people to make them want to reproduce. Over 40 percent reduction in births over 5 years is a massive indictment of what the Chinese people think the CCP's creation has to offer.
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  327. ​ @ey5373 what western countries have had a greater than 40 percent decline in the birthrate over 5 years of peace? Please give the date range as well as the country.
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  328. Only the ones they really, really need to stay in the PRC.
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  329. ​ jacksmith6015 what?
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  330. The country that gave us "lets abort one in five girls" also gave us "lets consider any unmarried woman over 25 years old to be too old"
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  331. If it'll keep the CCP in power for a little longer, I'd say so. They'll go to war when it's more painful (for the party leadership) because of internal reasons to not go to war
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  332. Just communists doing their thing. The people running the PRC are the people who were formed during the cultural revolution. To get an example of what it was like, when my father first went to teach in China, he was shown the window a former English teacher had been thrown out of.
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  333. With the stuff they could do, they won't. Even if they actually could.
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  334. It really can't. Almost no one (compared with the population of the PRC) outside the PRC speaks mandarin. And it's a poor country. They can't afford the immigrants they need. And it's a culture that's pretty much incapable of absorbing a multicultural flood of immigrants. To say nothing of just how many they'd need.
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  335. I don't think you understand the either the mainland Chinese culture or the sheer magnitude of the problem. Hong Kong could manage it with ease. 7 million people in a prosperous city, plus a culture that's used to dealing with foreign cultures = easy. I know this from personal experience. The mainland couldn't come close.
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  336. You're thinking of this from the point of view of what's good for the country. That's a mistake. Ask what's good for the party leadership and things make more sense.
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  337. Ratios.
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  338. It could, theoretically. But long story short, the country is too poor and the problem is too large. The places that need it least (that actually need it) will be being it first, because they can afford it.
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  339. 1. They don't have enough resources available. Kids are really expensive. 2. Any benefits wouldn't be seen for over two decades (of high costs). Or to put it another way, the current leadership wouldn't live long enough to benefit from that.
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  340. And yet not a single sign you watched the video.
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  341.  @alexpang5054  that's a lot of blah blah will a continued complete lack of saying what in this video is incorrect. Or even any evidence that you watched it.
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  342.  @alexpang5054  from past experience, I'll probably have fun.
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  343. So your goal is to bore me with silence? Well, fair enough. I'll admit I'm not a fan of boredom. Well played.
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  344.  @alexpang5054  bye bye. Over a day (and counting) to pick out errors in a 5 minute video shows that as with so many things from the CCP and its supporters, you're big on rhetoric, but completely empty on substance. I found boredom and I disliked it. What I didn't find is substance I'd dislike.
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  345. 1. Language. Almost no one outside of the PRC speaks mandarin. (relative to the size of the population) 2. Culture. This is not a multicultural society that's used to integrating outsiders. 3. It's a poor country. 12k usd per capita means they're not going to be attracting many people anyone else wants. 4. The biggest one is scale. They simply need so many to plug the gaps it's not going to happen.
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  346. Is he wrong in this video? If so, where?
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  347.  @jeanlamb5026  my grandfather only stopped when the was a news report about elderly person who hit a child and he couldn't accept it if he did that.
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  348.  @MedicalAutonomyProject  for someone without children, unable to will become suspiciously synonymous with death.
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  349. Not even close. Plus, Europe can attract immigrants to mitigate the decline. Please tell me which countries have had their birthrates decline by almost half (over 40 per cent) in 5 years.
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  350. The collapse is happening right now. Over 40 percent in five years of peace. When has that ever happened? It took Japan 32 years to decline by the same rate that the PRC achieved in 3. And japan was already wealthy.
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  351. It's an expensive thing that requires a lot of bespoke solutions for an economy this large and complex. Bespoke solutions that extremely expensive people who can go to any country they like to get the best deal for themselves.
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  352. It's such a wonderful place its citizens are giving up on having children at an unprecedented rate, while the USA has problems keeping people OUT.
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  353. Please name three other countries that have had a greater than 40 percent decline in births per year over five years. If this is a normal thing, that should be an easy question to answer
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  354. ​ @jamesjrdollenmeyer8301 one generation in the US. Ok. In 1990 there were 17 births per thousand. In the PRC it was 21. Now there's 11 or 12. So a reduction of 30 percent. The PRC has hit 6.77 (below south Korea) So a reduction of 68 percent. And the US can attract immigrants. It's a gentle reduction. It's not the crash they're getting in the PRC.
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  355. We've seen plenty of societies make that transition. What we've never seen is a greater than 40 percent decline in births per year in five years. That's a new one.
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  356.  @probablynotmyname8521  at a far slower pace when the countries were far more developed. The worst bits went far faster than the good bits, leading to China getting old before it got rich. China's rate is lower than south Korea's. Its gdp per capita is a third of south Korea's.
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  357. The govt did this by no longer actively going out of its way to screw the economy. The CCP deserves zero credit for doing an inadequate job of fixing a problem it created. It kept people in poverty. It went out of its way to do it. Also, he's relaying what the national bureau of statistics is saying. THEY are saying the population is in decline. THEY are saying the birthrate is crashing. You're getting upset at the messenger here.
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  358. Also, you said you were blocking this channel over a week ago.
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  359.  @lamrof  lol @ needing the reminder. Silly wumao. Unbelievable lies.
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  360. ​ jacksmith6015 source: trust me bro. Meanwhile, the source that you were insistent on trusting even more then the CCP says less than 10 percent. U.S. youth unemployment rate for 2021 was 9.57%, a 5.28% decline from 2020. U.S. youth unemployment rate for 2020 was 14.85%, a 6.51% increase from 2019. U.S. youth unemployment rate for 2019 was 8.34%, a 0.24% decline from 2018. U.S. youth unemployment rate for 2018 was 8.58%, a 0.63% decline from 2017.
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  361. Ratios.
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  362. Because the Chinese govt is incredibly short term in its planning. So is the country as a whole. You can see it in the low build quality. Except for places foreigners see, things tend to be either brand new or falling apart. There's almost nothing in between. And it takes 20 to 25 years for a newborn to become anything more than a drain. That would be Xi in his 90's before there started to be a benefit in this. And Taiwan will probably be attacked when attempting is more painful to the CCP's leadership than not attempting.
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  363. It really can't. Why would the sort of people it needs choose to go there in sufficient numbers? I don't think you realise the scale of this issue. It's a country of 1.4 billion whose births per year almost halved over five years. This is from a number that was already too low.
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  364. You seem like another person who won't actually say what's incorrect or unreasonable. So far the only person who even attempted an answer needed to lie to make it.
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  365. What country has so many challenges its birthrate almost halved in five years? (next year I'll probably be able to say halved in six years)
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  366. What advanced countries have had a decline in births of over 40 percent in five years of peace time? When did this happen? What advanced countries have a gdp per capita of 12k usd?
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  367. What do you think happens when you have a massive amount of people retiring without enough workers entering the workforce?
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  368.  @NewsFlashSummary  Japan didn't have that reduction in five years. It took decades. It took over three of those decades to do the same decline the PRC did in three years. The point here is they're not remotely on the same scale. And I'll confess my eyes glazed over at the rest of your pointless post. I asked questions you generally didn't come close to answering. The Japan answer itself showed how woefully ignorant you are on the subject.
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  369. ​ @xelthiavice4276 copy and paste and bleating "source" without even knowing what he wants a source for is all this halfwit can manage. He even wants a source to show that in June 4th 1989.... Nothing happened.
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  370. It still takes 20 to 25 years to see a return. Also, look up Romanian orphanages.
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  371.  @mwinyimwenyi  that's starting to see a return And try telling that to the 500 million plus elderly. And you can quite easily see where the western populations will be by this point. This is about the most predictable social science going. Given the PRC has a worse birthrate than every country (maybe with Monaco as the exception. Maybe not.) and considering on a per capita basis, the PRC is poorer than every western country and less able to attract immigrants than any western country, it seems a safe bet that they'll be in a better position.
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  372.  @mwinyimwenyi  this does highlight the biggest piece of evidence this wouldn't work, though. If they thought it would, they'd have started years ago. But they didn't.
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  373. They don't want to do those jobs. Especially the ones that have a (useless) degree. It's the same thing as there's a shortage of women, but a lot of single women. They think women over 25 are too old, and women are quite choosey as well. There's a lot of cultural issues at play here. It's basically a perfect storm
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  374. Japan's birthrate didn't decline anywhere remotely close to this quickly. In Japan in 1990,the birthrate was 10.5 per 1k people. Last year (32 years later) it was 7.3 In the PRC in 2018 the birthrate was 10.79 in 2021 (three years later) it was 7.52 In 2022 it's 6.77 In three years, the PRC's birthrate declined by what Japan's did in three decades. And as we saw for 2022, there was a further 10 percent reduction
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  375. Oh, and Japan's per capita gdp is over 3x the PRC's. Which means it has far more resources to throw at the problem.
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  376. My source for Japan: Macrotrends. My source for the PRC: the NBS. If you're wanting more sources, you'll need to be specific on what you actually want sources for. What specific parts of what was said so you doubt?
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  377.  jacksmith6015  why would I use Macrotrends instead of the Chinese national bureau of statistics? More to the point: Why are you using them instead of data taken from the NBS?
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  378.  jacksmith6015  as opposed to the global times and Chinese national bureau of statistics? What data did they use if not Chinese data?
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  379.  jacksmith6015  you're going to need to give an explanation of why the global times would repeatedly lie about the births per year (I've given you the math on how to get a birth rate from that. Although you've also shown you think birth rates are a percentage, so....) Macro trend messed up somewhere. The source data shows that.
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  380. From the South China Morning Post (owned by Alibaba and subject to the national security law in Hong Kong) China population: kindergartens fall for first time in 15 years as demographic crisis takes a toll Number of kindergartens fell in China by 5,610 to 289,200 last year, marking the first drop since 2008, according to a Ministry of Education annual report The number of students enrolled in kindergartens and preschools also dropped, a trend that coincides with China’s plunging birth rate and overall demographic crisis The number of kindergartens in China fell for the first time in 15 years in 2022, signalling the toll taken by the country’s plunging births amid exacerbating demographic challenges. According to an annual report published by the Ministry of Education on Wednesday, the number of kindergartens fell by 5,610 to 289,200 last year, marking the first drop since 2008. The report also showed the number of students enrolled in kindergartens and preschools dropped by 3.7 per cent from a year earlier to 46.3 million in 2022. The number of primary schools in China also tumbled by 3.35 per cent to 149,100 at the end of last year, while new enrolments sank by 4.55 per cent to 17 million. A kindergarten in the Xisanqi suburb of Beijing, which opened in 2009, is set to close at the end of August due to “increasing enrolment difficulties, including falling births and the constant increase in public kindergartens”, it said in a recent letter. The drastic drop in enrolments coincides with China’s plunging birth rate after Chinese mothers gave birth to just 9.56 million babies last year. This represented the lowest total in modern history and the first time the figure had dipped below 10 million. China’s birth rate also fell to a record low of 6.77 per 1,000 people, while the overall population fell by 850,000 to 1.4118 billion, as deaths outnumbered births for the first time in six decades. Despite the falling number of young children, demographers have pointed out that many parents are still struggling to find affordable public kindergartens due to significant shortage coupled with an intense competition for places. More preschools and primary schools will close in the future, and “the fierce competition will separate the best from the rest,” said Yuan Xin, vice-president of the China Population Association and a professor of demography at Nankai University in Tianjin. As the sharp drop in the number of preschools and primary schools has prompted concerns that some kindergarten teachers might lose their jobs, Yuan added that it is inevitable, and it will give rise to more profound social issues, which will be hard to solve. “Physical facilities, such as campuses and classrooms, can be repurposed into elderly care facilities,” he said. “However, kindergarten teachers, elementary school teachers, or high-school teachers can’t just easily transition into becoming caregivers for the elderly.” In contrast to the shrinking number of kindergartens and primary schools, China recorded an expansion in vocational education amid a push for skilled blue-collar workers as manufacturers across the country are struggling to hire. Last year, new enrolments in undergraduate vocational colleges jumped by 84.4 per cent from 2021 after adding 76,300 new students, the report said. The number of undergraduate vocational schools enrolments also rose by nearly 77 per cent to 228,700. By 2025, nearly 30 million manufacturing jobs in China will go unfilled, accounting for nearly half of all jobs in the sector, according to the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security. Its survey also found that around half of the top 100 jobs facing the most severe labour shortages in the second half of last year were in the manufacturing sector.
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  381.  jacksmith6015  lol. The first paragraph is the source. You halfwit.
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  382. Pretty sure if there was a (useful) plan, we'd have seen the results by now.
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  383. Still pretty sure we'd have seen the effects of that plan in action. Pretty sure they wouldn't delay the implementation of that plan to deal with something that needs to be dealt with asap just to avoid western negativity. Or maybe they are petty enough to avoid the births of tens of millions of badly needed future workers just to avoid a few bad western news articles.
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  384. ​ @ryanjuguilon213 ​ for half the population being able to die, but it still having a lot of citizens. But they're people who will no longer contribute who are living while the ones who will contribute are disappearing. It's about ratios. Not total number. 2 and 3. Highlighting that China got old before it got rich is not a good thing. The modernisation that's needed takes a lot of resources that will increasingly go towards supporting the elderly. 4. is also not a good thing. 5. On the list of things you can't eat is money and decaying apartments. (two major places these savings are). You need producers to allow you to exchange these for something useful.
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  385.  jacksmith6015  yes, but as has been shown repeatedly, not enough. It's (not) weird how often pro CCP halfwits are of understanding simple things like ratios. It shows how badly mentally equipped the type of motion moron who'd support the CCP is. Thank you for being a wonderful example of one.
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  386. Who looks after the masses of upcoming retirees?
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  387. ​ @thepwrjunkie7378 they're not good, but they're not China levels. China is below south Korea. It might be above Monaco, but at the rate things were going on the last update, I doubt it.
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  388. You can believe they're the best case scenario. The lies go in a direction that makes them look good. At best, it's accurate. At worst, the reality is so much worse.
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  389. ​ jacksmith6015 why waste time? You run away, then start screaming for the same thing again as if you hadn't been given one.
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  390.  jacksmith6015  sure you don't 😉 Just like you didn't see me tagging you again to get tut notification to come up.
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  391.  jacksmith6015  tagged you again. Still don't see it? 😉
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  392.  jacksmith6015  it's amazing how easy it is to not see something when you just decide you won't see it (or admit to seeing it) It's a coward's response, but you're a coward shilling for cowards. So it's appropriate.
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  393.  @merced175  it happens a lot. He's more interested in trans men than sources he asked for so many times. I guess that comes from being in a country that spent over four decades and counting murdering its girls thanks to government policy.
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  394. Please name three countries that have had their birthrates drop by over 40 percent in five years.
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  395. ​ @torpedospurs 10x the speed of Japan is more than a little bit. What took japan from 1990 to 2022 took the PRC from 2018 to 2021
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  396.  @torpedospurs  China's decline in births didn't start this year. It's been plummeting since the very small post one child policy bump. Now it's almost half its 2017 peak
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  397.  @torpedospurs  it depends on whether your demographics are in bubbles. Like China's.
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  398.  @torpedospurs  look for the Wikipedia article called "Demographics of China" It should make it clear. It only goes up to November 2020 though. The data since then is far, far worse.
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  399.  @torpedospurs  I have. They're nowhere near as bad. Especially on the group that's born since 2017. But please tell me a country that's had its birthrate nearly halve in the last five years. The PRC is now below south Korea.
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  400.  @torpedospurs  also by the time you're comparing the PRC with these much wealthier per capita countries, you've got a real problem. A huge difference between them and the PRC is their populations are small enough that immigration can help and that their economies are developed. The individual in the PRC is dirt poor by comparison.
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  401.  @torpedospurs  really? The others had the one child policy to accelerate it? And they're in the same economic situation as the PRC? They have a gdp per capita of 12.5k usd? Edit: my apologies, I'd misread yours as saying that Korea had a lower birthrate. Yes, it's the fastest ageing population. But: 1. It also has a population small enough to allow immigrants to make a real impact. If it chooses to do that. 2. Its gdp per capita is 3x the PRC's. 3. With the PRC's plummeting birthrate, which went from being well above Korea's to now below it in a few short years, how long do you think Korea will hold that crown? And Korea was the country with the lowest birthrate (actually Monaco) Was. Past tense. According to the official numbers from the Chinese national bureau of statistics. At this rate, next year it'll be a distant second (or third)
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  402.  @torpedospurs  those countries went down as a result of becoming wealthy. At 12.5k usd per person, the PRC is not wealthy. They won the race to become rich before they were one. The PRC lost it. And Monaco's birthrate looks to be higher than the PRC. But as you say, it's a completely abnormal place. So the PRC is at 6.77 per thousand vs south Korea's 6.92 for last year. Which leaves.... The PRC as having the lowest in the world.
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  403.  @torpedospurs  I'll agree with that, it simply became a bad environment to have kids in. People can't afford them. That doesn't change that the one child policy was a huge contributor to the imbalance that's going to be costing China in the long term. Even ignoring the masses of murdered girls, the biggest predictor of how many children a couple will have is how many siblings they had. A cultural change was created in which one child was the norm.
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  404. The important thing here (this should be obvious, but here we go) isn't total numbers, but ratios of workers to dependents. The PRC's birthrate has dropped by over 40 percent in five years. What other country has come close to the? (and when did that happen? Especially during peace time) That drop is using numbers from the national bureau of statistics. A drop that took Japan 32 years (from 1990 to last year) took the PRC three years (from 2018 to 2021. Plus 2022 to make it even worse)
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  405.  @nidepengyou101  they've had five years to arrest the challenge and haven't done a thing. And no. Moving from a two child policy to a three child doesn't exactly count. Neither does doing things that fail as abjectly as whatever they've tried qualify. The clock is ticking. It takes two decades to turn a baby into someone useful, and the birth rates were already dangerously low the best part of a decade ago. And what do you call a decline of over 40 percent in five years (45 percent, really) if not a collapse? Also, why are you wasting time talking about how many people own a house or how cheap electricity is? How do they compare with an unprecedented lack of babies being born?
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  406. ​​ jacksmith6015 hen did I mention Tian'anmen? When did I say there's no automation in the PRC? When did I say Taiwan isn't one of two separate and independent countries with China in their name? Taiwan absolutely is part of the Republic of China. Established 1912, 37 years before the secessionist PRC. (do you need a source for that, too?)
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  407.  jacksmith6015  when did I mention Tian'anmen? I'll need your source on me saying there was no automation. It looks like a straw man. I've repeatedly said it's not the answer due to cost and scale of the issue, but that's very different. Taiwan is absolutely part of the Republic of China, which can't have separated from the PRC because it came first. Can you give a date when Taiwan was controlled by the PRC? While we're there, can you give a date on which the USA was given the power to say a country didn't exist and make that part of international law?
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  408. It's ratios. Not total numbers.
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  409. How so?
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  410. Not with that ageing population they won't. There was a race to get rich before they got old. They lost.
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  411. @splintmeow4723 it makes you wonder how motivated an army that's there to protect a party is vs one that's there to protect the country.
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  412. If it keeps them in power another six months, they'll do it. The key to understanding what the PRC will do is asking what benefits the CCP's leadership. People who ask what's good for the PRC, or even what's good for the CCP as a whole are asking the wrong question. The PRC and CCP are only relevant when what's for for them helps the leaders. Every time their interests conflict with those of the CCP's leaders, they'll lose out. The same was true for Germany in the 30's and 40's
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  413. ​ @kwyatt261 it's a democracy, so those in charge need to at least try to do what the people want. Otherwise they're unemployed. In the USA, the party in power needs to be better than an organised, established opposition that's ready to step in peacefully and take over. In the PRC, the CCP needs to be better than civil war. That gives them far more options for staying in power, but unleashes a far greater horror when they inevitably lose power.
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  414. It's possible, although no one has achieved it. But if they had a war they believed was worth the cost, they'd have implemented it by now. If it worked, we'd be seeing the results. The clock is ticking. There's a 20 to 25 year delay on benefits from anything that's done now. That timeframe puts the current leadership into its 90's or late 80's. The costs will be immediate. So costs that the dictator and entourage will be forced to deal with now, with benefits they will never personally realise. Which is probably why they've spent the last five years either doing nothing or completely failing at what they've attempted.
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  415. The births per year haven't been at their current level, or even current rate of decline, for a decade. Over 40 percent fewer births last year than in 2017.
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  416. ​ @u2beuser714 considering very few people in the world have actually seen what the CCP believes is a united China (is anyone that old?) the prospect of the PRC temporarily breaking up for longer than my child probably has to live seems good enough.
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  417. ​ @mmwosu it would be sad if it wasn't so fun to laugh at how much the people he's shilling for have screwed him. A wumao has very few post CCP career prospects.
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  418. What do you think happens when your births almost halve over five years? What do you think it says that things are bad enough that people simply stop having children like this?
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  419.  @samdavison-wall4972  it kind of does. There's a difference between "don't want to rely on" and "can't rely on" Our current dependence on the PRC is irrelevant compared to the fact that we can't depend on it. What? You think the world is going to harm itself propping up something that can't deliver what's needed? And that massive side of things is a huge liability. It means the problem is too big to fix.
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  420.  @samdavison-wall4972  that's the sort of thing that sounds just fine when playing a video game, reading a history book or trying to use platitudes to polish a turd of a failed policy and its consequences, but isn't so much fun when you're someone who's just being born into an economy that will need need to devote massive amounts of resources towards supporting its elderly and will die in an economy that doesn't have enough workers providing resources for its elderly. All because a bunch of failures panicked in the aftermath of another failure, failed to do basic math (or didn't care as they'd be dead before the consequences came due), then delayed pulling out of the policy created by this panic until it was too late to even begin to improve things.
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  421.  @samdavison-wall4972  maybe. Assume that's true. That's at least two decades of complete suck. And as an overall poor country, the places that will need this most are going to get it last. Made so much worse by that resources that could have gone into this massive upgrade are being absorbed by the elderly population. And that the young, talented people will better be able to support their parents by moving overseas and earning incomes in countries that don't have this incredible burden. Which means that a more permanent brain drain will happen as a result.
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  422. Not even that's an option. For that to be an option, you've got to be the sort of place that many want to go to.
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  423. In 2017, there were I think 17.8 million births. Last year it was 9.56 million. A million less than 2021. What else does a catastrophe look like?
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  424.  @bobconley2355  considering that's the working age (not total) population predicted by others in 2050, I'm wondering if that's what he'd said. And it seems like you've set the bar for a catastrophe pretty high. That's getting close to a ratio of one worker to one dependent. The country got old before it got rich.
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  425. You say this line a greater than 40 percent decline in births per year in five years isn't a disaster.
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  426. There's a big difference between breed like the catholics in the meaning of life and compulsorily murder excess children. (defined as 'more than one') There's pro life. Pro choice. Anti choice and anti life.
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  427. What do you call a decline in birthrate of over 40 percent in five years if not a collapse?
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  428.  @rainwatersystems5917  the Chinese national bureau of statistics is spreading propaganda? I mean, probably. But to make the CCP look better. Not worse.
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  429. What do you think the long term consequences (this has been going on for the long term) of stopping people from having children is? And is the data false (in a way that's positive for the PRC?) I've seen it on their bureau of statistics website. If it's not false, we go back to my initial question.
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  430. One difference is: the west can.
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  431. Just remember that no matter how bad things get, these will be referred to as the good old days.
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  432. At the same time as they're currently dealing with a shortage of workers. In the same way as there's a massive shortfall of women, yet masses of single women. The culture that's been created there is full of these contradictions that make it all worse.
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  433.  @jimhom2673  you forgot to add just how much more class conscious the PRC's culture is than what you find in the west.
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  434. By the time they started to see a benefit from it, Xi would be 90. So he'd be taking on a massive political and economic cost for basically no benefit
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  435. They planned to have their birthrate collapse in an unprecedented and uncontrollable manner? No. They didn't.
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  436. So who takes care of the elderly?
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  437.  @Livetoeat171  that's one very practical reason. No children, no one to take care of you in your old age.
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  438. If they imported North Korea as a whole, it would make up a bit over two years of the shortfall. Substantially less when you assume that not everyone is going to be useful to them.
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  439. No, because the improvements brought about from Mao's transition from leader to tourist attraction were (relatively) incredible. The best thing thst ever happened to the PRC was confirmation that he was mortal. Unfortunately, that still scales into irrelevance vs the damage caused by him not just being another stain on the sheet.
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  440.  @1KentKent  it didn't, but I'll make it simple. People stopped dying so young after Mao died. He also encouraged people to have as many children as possible. China's spent the nearly five decades since he kicked the bucket doing an inadequate job of cleaning up his mess.
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  441.  @1KentKent  they had a huge amount of children before the one child policy came in (my wife was born shortly before it. She and our daughter are living at this moment, and would be adding to the numbers if they lived there. My mother in law is also alive) The life expectancy during the cultural revolution was in the 50's. That increased after the insanity stopped, meaning a lot more people were still above ground. Then that huge amount of people continued to have children. Not as many as their parents, but still doing it. And not enough time has passed since then for the mass deaths to start. We're still a couple of decades away from it. At the moment we're just about to hit the mass retirements. Your logic works if you assume people have the number of children they're going to have, then die. All of China's modern insanity happened in the last 70 years. (less that that. The great leap forward started in 1958) The population of China doubled between the late 50's and Mao's death. So there's this huge population bubble with a rapidly diminishing tail that's rising through China's demographics.
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  442. Probably neither. There's no point in encouraging children. The current leaders will probably be dead before they become more than a cost. It takes too long to turn a newborn into someone useful. To say nothing of going from "I'm going to force to abort the children you wanted" to "I'm going to force you to bear the children you no longer want" Culling the elderly because you forced them to abort the people who would have taken care of them probably wouldn't go down well. Either with those who know they're next or with the only child whose potential siblings were murdered by the people who were about to kill their parents. So for the current govt, you'll see a few token efforts (which is what we've seen) that do nothing, but mean the decreasing number of working age people is still contributing for the rest of the leadership's lives without needing to worry about the burden of children. The cull is absolutely something that's possible for the successor govt, though. They didn't cause the problem. The CCP did, from Mao encouraging them to breed to them forcing the next generation to stop breeding. They're just cleaning up the CCP's epic mess, because someone has to.
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  443. This "it'll be right" attitude inspires less confidence when think of the year in which it'll be right.
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  444.  JackSmith-mk1ru  and doesn't live in China. I'd ask if you had a point, but.... It's not likely to be a point worth having.
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  445. When you were given data from PRC sources that backed him up, you ran away. You're a simple coward who can't support his position. Which makes it funny. You're going to be unable to escape the horror that's coming. (if it wasn't coming, you wouldn't have run away) A horror that's been created by the people you're mindlessly shilling for. It's lucky you're probably single and without kids. Fewer people to reap the consequences of the failure you're supporting.
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  446. What is? In what way? In which part of the video is he talking about whatever the US is worse in?
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  447. In the wealthy countries first. The PRC isn't one of them. In this case, automation on this scale is just going to remove a reason to trade with themm
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  448. The issue isn't the reduction so much as the speed of reduction. This is 10x faster than Japan's decline in births, with a gdp per capita that's a fraction of Japan's.
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  449. All these posters going on about him being wrong. And every time, when asked where or how he's wrong, they lie or are never heard from again.
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  450. The problem with this is you said China's only hope. No one cares about China. It's an irrelevance. Only the CCP's leadership matters.
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  451. An example of this is if the PRC mattered, Hong Kong would have been used as a testing ground for policies that would allow it to peacefully move away from the CCP when the CCP's time was finished. We all saw how that turned out.
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  452. ​ @irresistablejewel he's talking about what's been happening at an unprecedented pace for the last five years.
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  453. ​ @irresistablejewel so who takes care of the elderly? Btw, they stopped trying to keep the numbers down seven years ago. Now they're trying (and failing) to stop it going too far and too quickly.
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  454. You'd think that was obvious to everyone, right? Well. Apparently not.
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  455. The issue is ratios of workers to dependents. Not total numbers.
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  456.  @superfuss1984  yes. I'm a systems engineer and developer. It's what I do all day. Which is why I also know how difficult it is and how expensive it is to create, maintain and improve a bespoke solution. It's well worth it, but it's not a magic wand, and the people who can do it have a skillset that's in demand all over the world. This means they follow the money, and outside of the tier 1 cities, the money isn't in the PRC.
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  457. Does this make any of this untrue?
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  458.  @c2ashman  we can see from the number of people who don't understand the importance of ratios how woefully inadequate the Chinese education system is.
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  459.  @c2ashman  given the evidence provided by the sheer number of halfwits who need to be told that retirees need resources to survive, that they're not providing these resources themselves, that these resources need to come from somewhere and that a population made up of the elderly is not a good thing, i somehow don't think I'm underestimating anyone. On the other hand, you could do with some reflection on the folly of overestimating yourself.
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  460. ​ @c2ashman what does that have to do with what I said? What part of what I said is that meant to contradict?
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  461.  @c2ashman  really? So if you have 10 million one year olds today, you can't predict an upper limit to how many 11 year olds there will be in ten years?
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  462. ​ @c2ashman you've had a couple of days to crunch the numbers? Like to take a guess?
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  463. ​ @TylerDurden1975-o1x they don't know how to deal with it (not counting Hong Kong. Which doesn't count anymore)
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  464. Basically no. The scale issue is too big. The country is too poor. That will lead Japan into an epic economic recovery long before the PRC benefits to the degree it needs.
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  465. ​ jacksmith6015 what took japan 32 years took the PRC 3 years. China's decline is like Japan's on steroids.
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  466. Someone should setup a factory in Vietnam that produces tiny violins.
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  467. Nothing remotely close to this. The PRC's birthrate dropped by over 40 percent since 2017. That's five years (of data)
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  468.  jacksmith6015  I like how you say this as if you haven't been given Japan's numbers from a source you were very determined to trust more than you did the national bureau of statistics.
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  469. In 1990, Japan had a birthrate of 10.578 per thousand people (Macrotrends) In 2018, the PRC had a birthrate of 10.78 (national bureau of statistics) In 2022, Japan had a birthrate of 7.109 In 2021 the PRC had a birthrate of 7.52 So that's close to the same decline as Japan in a tenth of the time. In 2022 the PRC had a birthrate of 6.77 Below south Korea's. Again, according to the national bureau of statistics.
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  470.  jacksmith6015  I like how you went from thinking that homosexuality wasn't a thing that young Chinese males were going to need to get used to if they were going to have any chance of not being alone (thanks to the mass murder of girls) to actively trying to pick up strange men. It shows an acceptance of reality I didn't think you were capable of.
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  471.  jacksmith6015  you never did tell me why I shouldn't provide a source you'd made it clear you trusted more than the official data from the Chinese national bureau of statistics. If you're happy with it, why shouldn't I use it? I know it's one you'll accept. Even if I think it was wrong on the PRC. Hypocrisy is deciding a source you thought was good is bad the moment it doesn't say what you want. If you give me a better source than them (as I did for you. You never did say why you didn't trust the Chinese govt's data) I'm happy to use that better source.
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  472. ​ jacksmith6015 when you're saying "things aren't so bad. We're like Japan" things are very, very bad. Except that the PRC isn't like Japan. It's what you'd create if you wanted the Japanese to breathe a sigh of relief and say "at least we're not them"
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  473.  @bflorijn  one of many differences, that are all in Japan's favour.
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  474. Those countries simply don't have enough people. The scale of the issue is really hard to comprehend.
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  475. ​​ jacksmith6015 hen was the Republic of China (aka Taiwan. established 1912)ever part of the secessionist PRC (established 1949)? Give a date when PRC law applied to Taiwan.
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  476.  jacksmith6015  how is any of that meant to be an answer?
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  477. All truth.
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  478. What took japan 32 years from 1990 to last year took the PRC three years from 2018 to 2021.
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  479. ​ JackSmith-mk1ru that's about as accurate as anything else you say.
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  480. So where's he incorrect in this video? The collapse in births really is that bad. Over 40 percent in five years.
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  481. Which means the faster we move that away from them, the better
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  482. The decline pre-dates the virus. Every year from the small post one child policy spike in 2016 has been a dramatic decline. Normally in the range of 7 to 15 percent.
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  483. ​​ @KLRJUNE 5 for the high value workers. Edit: assuming they don't lie flat.
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  484. But they don't have babies. There's a lack of the next generation. The last five years have seen it drop by almost 50 percent. That's 10x the rate of Japan's decline
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  485. Anyway, let's look at your priorities. Can launch stuff into space. Can't deliver drinking water that doesn't need to be boiled to the average person. Which of these is more important to a nation as a whole?
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  486. It makes more sense if you ask what's good for the CCP's leadership, rather than what's good for the PRC.
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  487. Not really. Automation isn't a magic wand. It's a very expensive process (with high payoff) that requires extremely skilled people to come to with a wide variety of bespoke solutions. To say nothing of what's needed to improve and maintain those solutions. And, well... The PRC has a per capita gdp of 12k. The USA (as one of many countries) has a per capita gdp of 70k. Talent follows the money.
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  488. ​ @yesiamarussianbot3076 if they're wrong, the reality is worse. And the official data is already downright dystopian.
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  489. Can you name three countries the have had their birthrates decline by over 40 percent in five years? And how many Africans speak mandarin? Why would the sort they need go to the PRC instead of elsewhere?
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  490. How? And how do they get them the time they need?
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  491. Please name three developed countries that had their births per year decline by more than 40 percent in 5 years.
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  492.  jacksmith6015 oh? when? When did those three countries see their births per year decline by over 40 percent in five years?
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  493.  jacksmith6015  when? This is twice now you haven't given a date.
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  494.  jacksmith6015  bye bye. If you weren't lying, you'd have answered the question.
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