Comments by "Bob" (@bobs_toys) on "CaspianReport"
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@灯星-g8e In 2014, about 30 percent of newborns were second or third children. The crude birth rate was 13.83 per thousand (we can't exactly use births per woman, now, can we?).
Last year, a bit over 50 percent of newborns were second or third children, and there were 6.77 births per thousand (official data).
So in less than a decade, the number of births has dropped to less than half of what it was, and the number of people deciding they can become parents has collapsed by two-thirds.
In less than a decade.
And the decline continues.
Last year alone, to maintain the 2:1 worker-to-dependent ratio (down from 3:1 in 2011), the PRC needed an additional 30 million workers.
And the next decade is looking even worse.
This is coupled with a median income of about $4,250 USD.
The purchasing power parity (PPP) multiplier is about 2x.
So the median Chinese citizen has a spending power equivalent to about $8.5k — still well below the U.S. poverty line, even after adjusting for local prices.
And yes, I know things are cheaper.
That's exactly why I used the PPP modifier — to take that into account.
That's why 5 percent GDP growth simply isn't good enough.
They lost the race to grow rich before they grew old.
If you invested $1,000 into the CSI 300 back in mid-2009, you'd have about $1.2k now.
If you had instead put it into the S&P 500, you’d have about $6.3k.
If you invested five years ago, you'd have about $950 today in the CSI 300.
Versus about $2k in the S&P 500.
And over the past year, the CSI 300 is up about 7.75%.
The S&P 500? Up about 11% — even after the losses from the latest tariff war and with two rounds of stimulus being pumped out by the CCP.
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