Comments by "Bo McGillacutty" (@Mrbfgray) on "John Michael Godier"
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@JohnMichaelGodier The IPCC agrees with none of that. Not that consensus is science, it is not, but that's an organization without a purpose if not for CO2 effects and they put some work into it. They predict trivial economic impact this century.
If anthropogenic CO2 was the driver of climate (it's a bit player) how do we explain the Younger Dryass, or the repeated glaciation of the North? On and on. Will it prevent the pending glacial max? That's a hell of a lot scarier even than sea-level rise. (my assumption is NO)
Recent glacial maximums have dropped atmospheric CO2 near mass plant extinction levels, extremely dangerous, flirting with the end of everything good that matters.
Al Gore won a prize for predicting the end of Artic sea ice by 10 yrs ago, we hit a 20 yr max just recently. (nothing to do with sea level, just a reason for cynicism in the *one true narrative*)
So far CO2 increase has been a massive benefit to Earth and humanity, greening the planet, rendering plants more drought tolerant and significantly increasing crop yields.
At what point has CO2 done about all the thermal insulating that it can do? Painting a window twice doesn't necessarily block twice as much light. We started taking temp measurements at the coldest point in the last 10k yrs, 1880's.
Remember the "coming ice age" fear in 1960's and '70's? There was a reason for it, slight cooling trend from 1940ish to '80's. CO2 fails to predict climate history, it correlates to medium time frame trends (100's of thousands of yrs) but apparently follows temp changes as much as leads them.
40X more CO2 in the oceans than atmosphere, colder oceans holds, removes more from air achieving treacherous low levels in recent glaciations, 180ppm.
Fear the next glacial max more than melting.
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@JohnMichaelGodier Much appreciate your time and effort. Had misgivings about mentioning any particular character like Gore. I'm non tribal by nature, was 'on his side' back in the day, but all that is, as you suggest, irrelevant to the reality we are attempting to determine here.
My understanding is current sea level rise is only some, say 30% higher rate than it was 150 yrs ago. (without exact numbers at my finger tips) Hardly overwhelming to civilization for next 150 yrs. Will it increase or decrease over that time frame, I don't think anyone knows.
My mention of YD catastrophe was 2 fold--one which you addressed and the other about all the supposed tipping points. Be it seafloor methane hydrates or whatever, surely proposed tipping points would all have been triggered if they were real. Perhaps some were?
I'm not sure we could have terminated fossil fuels any faster than we have been without causing mass poverty, and poor ppl can't afford to think about next week let alone decades forward.
Fossils have saved what's left of our forests and the whales, at least sperm whales. We'd have consumed wood for fuel like poor regions of Earth today burn any tree limb they can find.
The good news is that fossils days are numbered, free enterprise and tech is showing us the way to abundance without additional carbon emissions. Yes it will take decades, but EV autos, for example, will dominate new purchases in a few yrs. ICE cars will be obsolete before worn out.
I celebrate energy source transformation even tho I still suspect more CO2 is better than less. Going renewable (or at least nuclear) is obvious necessity and cleaner air is already happening. USA is long past peak coal and now at peak oil consumption.
Evidence that atmospheric CO2 is more a consequence of climate change than a driver of it: many examples--when CO2 is minimal at same time ice is maximum, albedo is max, should result in permanent glacial max or "tipping" into snowball Earth. But that's not what happens.
If climate models were worth a damn they'd predict all the changes back in time, they do NOT. I don't think we can know, at this point, what the next 50 yrs looks lk. Or even to what extent carbon is a factor.
I share your concern about Antarctica but not your alarm--conceding your far superior specific knowledge on the particulars you presented. Naturally much more to it including increased precipitation in many regions.
I champion MORE skepticism toward authorities in general. Recent pandemic didn't need to be devastating as it was, for example, had the skeptics not been canceled and censored and authorities allowed to trample our basic human rights. Similar goings on with climate science, playing out over decades instead of months.
Youth of today really believe, 'half' of them, that the world will end for them in 5 or 10 yrs, due to climate apocalypse. Very unhealthy unnecessary religion with only one upside--they'll be very cynical 20 yrs from now. lol. But they'll regret not having a family or career, or just not taking better care of themselves, due to hyperbolic headlines and prognostications.
(((pardon caring on way to long!...loath long posts)))
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@JohnMichaelGodier Maybe I'm missing something but the Fukashima disaster was entirely avoidable immediately after the flooding, to my eye. Ignoring the design failures like backup generators in the basement. Megawatt backup gensets are ubiquitous for many industries, hospitals, etc. Rental yards have them.
Heavy lift helicopters should have been able to fly in diesel generators, crews and supplies to wire them up in a matter of hours, or a day. Yet none of that was even attempted?? They had a couple days battery power if I recall correctly.
That disaster and Chernobyl, another unforced series of errors, largely responsible for anti-nuke sentiment in recent decades, in my view.
Maybe you've already done your thing on nukes, that's a worthy topic for near future. Including thorium if that's viable.
I'll have to delve into your glacier catastrophe ascertions at some point, simply don't have the background to have an intelligent opinion on it one way or the other rt now.
Looks like we will need some 3X more electric gen in next decade or two, and the grid upgrades. I expect to be personally (neglecting my share of 'unavoidable' outsourced consumption perhaps) self sufficient with roof solar, batteries and EV car(s), in a few yrs.
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@JohnMichaelGodier Fusion seems like a long way off if it can ever be economically competitive on Earth. I welcome the efforts anyway. Yeah I remember some of the anti-nuke hysteria from decades ago.
Highly biased in favor of Tesla, but unless you live in a very remote area, the infrastructure is plenty good enough by most accounts. Naturally many owners haven't needed a public charger in yrs and really enjoy not ever going to a gas station, just plug in at home a few X per week or daily.
If you road trip much then it becomes important and there's a small learning curve to use it effectively, but very rare one must wait for a stall. Charging speed is a bit of an issue but rapidly improving. A top up every 200 plus miles is a welcome break for many, 15 to 30 minutes and, variable but say $8, and on the road again after snack and pee. But if you like to drive nearly nonstop for 10 hrs--ICE will still save you an hr.
The fuel savings makes T. Model 3 the cheapest late model car you can operate in USA today. (probably also true in Europe, much of the world, but not China) Teslas are also the safest cars ever made by a wide margin, both in a crash and, increasingly, by avoiding crashes. Purchase prices are very compelling now and will continue to get better and cheaper.
All the noise about battery elements environmental issues are way overblown, and they will be endlessly recycled like ultra high grade ore.
Tesla has also essentially won the autonomous race with no contenders in sight. They'll license the tech to other OEMs, but for now and several yrs forward--that's a big factor, many folks don't want to live without FSD anymore now that it's suddenly become so good, major de-stressor even supervised. (there can be exceptions and older versions could be extra stressful, but the path is clear now)
Know a guy who, ironically owns several gas stations, NOT a Tesla fan but has money and a Model X. He says he can't manually keep a car between the lines well anymore and likes to do anything but drive while "driving".
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